Thanks Foundation very good info …
It would be interesting to lay your graphs over every generation back to 1950 to see if there are any patterns.
The only major change i see in the near future is the Baby Boomers entering retirement from 2010 and what effect this will have.
When you see what is happening in places like Dubai and Asia i believe Australia is very affordable and safe for investment and especially for education and raising children
D
Originally posted by wealth4life.com:The only major change i see in the near future is the Baby Boomers entering retirement from 2010 and what effect this will have.
We effectively have 3-4 more years to make a killing. Debt is still cheap, baby boomers are still spending, asset prices will continue to go up. But I’m with Harry Dent in his latest book – beware stagnant a decade of stagnant growth from 2010 to 2020. Scary stuff, not in the realms of impossibility. When and if that happens, you liquidate your negative cash flow assets and move to somewhere cheap like Thailand for 10 years. [aacool]
hey eveyone,
I always believed in cycles when coming to investments (i still do in regards to the share market), however i stubbled accross a few graphs today. Please correct me if im wrong (or the graphs are wrong should i say [biggrin])
From 87 on to 06 property has only had 2 years of backward growth (91 & 05) both following what appears to be a boom.
Why is it then that people are claiming a future bust in property prices? (im not saying your wrong so dont get angry) Is it to do with people being in bigger debt, increases in cost of living, baby boomers ageing etc?
Dear asdf … i don’t know, some of this confuses me …
Australias population is very small for such a large country.
Imagration is still increasing which may take up the slack.
2010 – 2020 will b very interesting indeed, who really knows.
Peoples needs are changing to housing and life style changes. Instead of the urban sprawl we will see smaller dwellings closer to the CBD’s
Australia is still more affordable than the rest of the world IMHO
If the BBers move to Queensland for life style that must mean opportunities in other ares for investing.
“the deffination of an economist is some one who reads the past”
I could name people hear who i receive emails from saving the property market had bottomed 6 months previously, we should be careful what we put to paper.
I believe the market is still falling, however Eastern seaboard and waterfront properties are going through the roof … why buy houses lets expand our views
The secret to real wealth is the rule of 72
D
Hello all,
Well it appears that interest rates are going to rise as i heard this morning
Interested to know your thoughts – investors – price drops around the country – and worried mums and dads ..
D
Originally posted by wealth4life.com:Hello all,
Well it appears that interest rates are going to rise as i heard this morning
Interested to know your thoughts – investors – price drops around the country – and worried mums and dads ..
D
Yesterday it was likely to drop, today is likely to rise, tomorrow is……..
Worried mums ‘n’ dads, yep, especially if the media tells them to [lmao]
The news came from the head of the RBA last night not the media.
So it’s likely to go up. After all he is the one that decides on IR.
What the media says doesn’t matter.Originally posted by zen1:What the media says doesn’t matter.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm…….. not sure on that….if you run Sunday paper specials on how much all our homes have gone up in the last year, Hot property shows, Reno shows and the biggest hit of 2003 the Reality TV show the BLOCK, then you have a boom.
“you can’t loose on real estate”
If the media selectively pulls out investment horror stories as we are starting to see in newspapers you have the start of the slump (Sydney) .
Now once the 6.30pm current affairs shows have footage of some couple being physically put in the streets, (in 1991-1992 it happened ….even in Mosman) then you have public perception that property is poison…….
What the Reserve says is only a small part in this wonderful melodrama….
Originally posted by Bo_D_:From 87 on to 06 property has only had 2 years of backward growth (91 & 05) both following what appears to be a boom.
Two small points
1- ‘wealth illusion’ is the inability or unwillingness to adjust nominal prices for changes in the value of currency (you forgot to adjust for inflation). Inflation adjusted, there have been 7 years of falls in the value of Melbourne houses (REIV) since 1990.2 – if the holding cost (interest, principal, rates, insurance, repairs, taxes) of a house is greater than the capital gains, it’s going backwards as an investment (losing you money). Since 1971, annual interest costs alone on the median Melbourne house have exceeded capital gains in 20 of 35 years. This is where it’s useful to consider the non-financial benefits of owning a house, such as ‘a roof over your head’. Property investors are somewhat better-off in this regard, as they receive some income which helps cover the losses.
Cheers, F. [cowboy2]
Originally posted by wealth4life.com:Hello all,
Well it appears that interest rates are going to rise as i heard this morning
Interested to know your thoughts – investors – price drops around the country – and worried mums and dads ..
D
Well, another interest rise, so what?
I feel sorry for those who overcommitted them self’s, the rest of us may actually benefit from it. This will add few $ to the monthly interest on our PPOR but so what? Even water in Brisbane become considerably more expensive in last 24 months which is guarantied not to go back down in price ever!!! (unlike interest rate)
[exhappy]Thanks simple but i don’t think it is that “simple” and “so what” well i believe that the idea of this forum is to discuss the effects in the market with our investment strategy.
Yes there are a lot of people who bought at the wrong time and are going to lose big, mostly from greed.
To be honest purchasing resi houses can be a bore and there are many others areas in realestate to make money than houses.
Purchasing at the correct time for the best price will maximise our returns, so now the question is when and how to enter the market.
We believ that the resi market will not come back till at least half way into next year. IMHO the market has not bottomed “on average”
D
D,
I must agree on the comment that money can be made at any market conditions and resi not the best area.
The company I work for looking for block of land to build new manufacturing facility with in Wynnum area / Brisbane. We recently been contacted by “XX†real-estate agent. They found the block of land for us for 1.3M, by the time we got our act together it went under contract for 1.2M. We manage to find out that other real-estate agent purchased the land. Guess what? ïŠ We been contacted be new proud owner “real-estate agent†who offered us the same block for 2.1M now ïŠ. In reality land does worth about 1.3-1.5 and was underpriced by owner selling in the hurry. Not a bad way to make 800K in just about 4 weeks!
[specool]Originally posted by simple:Property prices ripple.
If the cellar dwellers loose then it ripples through the rest of the system.
It ripples up and ripples down.
If the interest rate pressures the bottom end, and it really is, then it does not matter whether I fixed at 1% for the rest of my childrens lives, the price of my real estate will be directly effected and indirectly by a slowing economy.
Heard from another profesional that some of the lenders are getting nasty surprises in Sydneys west on the foreclosures.
They cannot understand how, considering the income declared, these people got into so much difficulty SO FAST (before a rate rise actually BIT) ….. okay before you reply……I am laughing my head off as I type…….but how the properties were ever VALUED at so high a price,Maybe some of our forum brokers could share with us there trade secrets.
Hi GMH
Peviously you mentioned that when we see programs on TV where people are being thrown out of their homes ……… well i think your prediction is about to come through.
On the weekend was a doc that forclosures are increasing at an allarming rate, even the missions were getting involved.
Then as “simple” pointed out commercial properties in QLD are going through the roof, we see this all the time up there even down to the Gold Coast.
The Perth market appears to have hit the top, now people over there will start to get worried and start to panic!!
The top end of town all over the country are experiencing record prices, ocean fronts on the GC 800m/2 selling for 15 million, water fronts in SYD going for crazy prices …..
So the RICH are getting RICHER and the Poor are getting poorer creating the great devide, all we need to do is make certain we are on the rich side then “who cares”
Only 3% will make it, to independant wealth
95% of people at age 65 will struggle to survive in retirement
80% of the population today is below the medium standarts
The numbers don’t lie and then theres credit card debt but we won’t go there – she’ll be right mate (wrong!!!!!!!!!)
D
Yeah wealth, I think we are now seeing the turn. In Sydney, the market leader (up….then down) has had almost all negative press from the conservative Sydney Morning Hearald.
This weekend the Tele the faithful mag of the greater west, ran a cover storey and two pager on the new home buyers (with plasma…..they just had to get that in ) who are approaching charities for aid. made the radio news late saturday, and tv sunday night.
Now who would have thought that people who could not even save a deposit, could not afford 100% finance PLUS, be able to afford to furnish it on credit card.
Now of course they new it would be hard to start, BUT if they didn’t get in now (1983-1984) they would be priced out forever !!!!!!!!!!!
How long before some of these people sitting on negative equity beleiving all the REI hype that “the market will recover next year, but with ONLY MODEST GROWTH OF 10%”. just give up and walk off.
How long before dad hitting his head against a wall he can’t climb, finds some other women who does not “winge about lack of money all day”, how long before the wife moves home with the little kiddie, because HE is
a) drinking
b) no fun any more ……always talking about money
c) no fun anymore ……..always tired (works 20 hours per day)
d) abusive (see drinking and stress above)
e) she leaves with the boarder they put in to pay some bills
f) and my favourite ……she takes up a new relationship with the boarder ..who is much more understanding about how lonely she has become…..see the working 20 hours per day….and they make hubbie move out…..although he still has to pay maintenence !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!And if you think (f) is joking…. I spent an hour with the guy one day….not much fun….
So as to the perenial question of ….. “are we there yet” ( bottom), no kiddies not by a long way…..sometimes life is more interesting than good tv.
Yes GMH we see this first hand as well in another part of our business …
It is so good to talk about wealth creation however it is so sad that so few take up the challenge and do it correctly.
On Saturday night we were invited to a function where an interesting discussion came up about property and even the owner of this site was mentioned (in a positive way)
There is a great devide happening in the market place – every body wants to be rich and happy, however it just will not happen for the many.
Your are right GMH and others pointing out that these poor suckers are getting in with 106% loans then the nice car (on lease) then all the fancy stuff in the house (on credit)
Its the great Australian dream “To own your own home” but just because you have one doesn’t mean you are safe and happy. Many people are missing the secret!
Too many unsophisticated people do not apply the basic fundermentals in financial literacy 1 + 1 = 2 and i’m not counting credit cards. Then we read all the books of which so few are written by over night success storeys (SMcK not included) giving theories that don’t work for the masses.
S.McK first books are very inspirational and i only hope that if there is a third one that it isn’t titled 260+….. because the people i spoke to said they feel like loosers because they don’t own one property and are struggeling to raise a family and meet their over heads.
Every generation is faced with challenges 20’s 30’s 40’s 50’s 60’s 70’s we are not all the same and not every theory works for every body. Determining what level of wealth and happieness for each peoson is the key – the law of attraction.
I would love to see the stats of the 42,000 members here,
age – number of properties – getting started – nett worth over 5 mill – more than 5 properties – etc etc it would be very interesting.
The information available to us today is emence so why do so many FAIL ??????
And in closing GMH the answer is simple because Branson (virgen) and Simmons (aussie) have the answer because they have the “secret” !!!
Cheaper credit Cards !!!!!!!!!!
D
Quote:Originally posted by gmh454:This weekend the Tele the faithful mag of the greater west, ran a cover storey and two pager on the new home buyers (with plasma…..they just had to get that in ) who are approaching charities for aid. made the radio news late saturday, and tv sunday night./quote]
Yes, this one:
Article LinkI’ve just called Vinnie’s on 131812 and sworn never again to donate a square cent to any of their appeals, and to trash my used goods rather than donate them.
I was polite but firm, and felt sorry for the poor girl who answered. I don’t think mine was the first such call she has recieved today.
Next stop ‘Today Tonight’ with a story suggestion – hopefully they’ll find a few choice examples of these leeches to shame publicly – setting an example for others that this behaviour is disgraceful and intolerable.
Please do your bit. Forward the article to friends. Call up your favorite charity, ‘just to check’ that they aren’t involved in this massive fraud against honest, hardworking, fiscally responsible Australians.
F. [grrr]
Foundie… I thought I was the only one who felt like that….
Agree, a hell of a lot of people down the hole who deserve it more..
I’ve just called Vinnie’s on 131812 and sworn never again to donate a square cent to any of their appeals, and to trash my used goods rather than donate them.
I was polite but firm, and felt sorry for the poor girl who answered. I don’t think mine was the first such call she has recieved today.
Next stop ‘Today Tonight’ with a story suggestion – hopefully they’ll find a few choice examples of these leeches to shame publicly – setting an example for others that this behaviour is disgraceful and intolerable.
Please do your bit. Forward the article to friends. Call up your favorite charity, ‘just to check’ that they aren’t involved in this massive fraud against honest, hardworking, fiscally responsible Australians.
F.
I LOVE IT!
David
Vinnies are a charity and i think it is sad that they are involved at this level, the real deamons are government departments not teaching financial literacy at schools ….
What is happening in your life today is a RESULT of past DECISSIONS we make , it is nobodies fault other than the people who impliment those decissions. (self)
For things to change WE must change – “responsibility”
D
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