- Freckle wrote:bardon wrote:Freckle wrote:Certainly, the lies from our political leaders are entertaining. But how many more revolutions, riots, defaults, bank runs, stimulus packages, nationalizations, tax increases, pension grabs, etc. will it take to acknowledge what’s happening?
Can anyone afford to keep ignoring reality? Can you?I think this article is kid of apt considering the circumstances and the recent posts.
So what does one to do to combat this all encompassing Big Government monster ?
I suspect people like yourself will simply get bigger blinkers and cocoon themselves in make believe world where all is well.
Meanwhile people like myself are concerned about where government is going with many things. The Australian government is well and truly in bed with the yanks and adopting some of their tactics. That actually scares the hell out of me. There is absolutely nothing the US government will not do to its people to achieve its political, military and financial aims. It is aided and abetted by its suck-up friend Australia.
You have to worry when a guy like Julian Assange can’t get any support from his own govt/country. You’re better off being a Bali drug smuggler than anyone who fronts the US over its criminal activities.
All I was asking for was answer to the question not your guess as to what I would do and then add to the lists of concerns.
It is amazing how confident that you are in your assessment of me based on a couple of internet posts. You must have a sixth sense as most would not be bale to form such an opinion with such scant information.
As for your concerns you continually mention, all I am asking is what is your response. Although you think that you do, you wouldn’t be aware of my political opinion for what it is worth.
As for Assange he is the pasty for increased internet censorship and I think he is in on it, as this is, in my opinion staged.
Anyone who thinks they know whats happening with the political landscape is kidding themselves. Overall you cant control or influence what happens at senior political level, and what you think you know is probably far far removed from the real conversations that are had. Hell, half of the people IN senior political positions have different information from reality.
I think you can only control your destiny, and follow your beliefs and opinions on what will happen in the future. Some will have the opinion that everything is going to crash, some see opportunities within this market currently. Thats what makes it a market !!
I personally don’t believe the property market is going anywhere anytime soon. it will consolidate or grow at around CPI for the next couple of years. Yes, this is a generalisation, some cities and suburbs within cities will get smashed, most likely those with a majority of low income in their demographic.
But we need to remember there are a hell of a lot of houses in Australia paid off in full. these people are highly unlikely to sell, and if they do, they will buy in the same market so its all relative.
I am a big believer of doing the opposite what the herd is doing – we all can probably remember the stories of cab drivers talking about the latest stock market tip – when was that exactly – oh yeah, the 12 months before the GFC hit. Likewise when there were 100+ people at each auction in 2007, i certainly wasnt out there with them.
I dont see too many people talking about the fact that property has been the most stable investment over the course of history and with one of the highest rate of returns.
Sure, history isnt a predictor of future, but when someone else can pay my mortgage off for me so that i have 60, 80, 100k of passive income (+ growth with inflation over time) im willing to take that bet.
Oh yeah, lets not forget the CHANCE of capital growth as well!.
To me, constantly investing for the future just makes sense, and if you’re investing for the long term future, the market’s cycles dont matter as much as the time you spend in the market…
Just my 2c
This thread has been commented 1000 times !!
my posting is 1001 !!!
keep commenting I would like to see where this thread will lead up to
I hope my children and my grand children… and great grand children can all see this thread still alive !!!!
we are making a history here : )
bardon wrote:simple wrote:bardon wrote:fWord wrote:Yeah, the world is coming to an end too.But it's not gonna be 2012! That's my prophecy! LOL
You are most probably right there. So does that mean we should just maintain the fear indefinitely and one day we will be proven right?
Indian use to believe that you are only truly free if you live with no fear
Expectation of RE crash is hardly a fear as such. People would not share fears, they hide them. I would not think that anyone here is truly expressing any fear.
I think that a lot of us become risk averse as we grow older, chance taking is frowned upon, failure is seen as a weakness, it is hidden and buried. When In reality most success is built on failure, two sides of the same coin. I plan to have some massive failures in the future, if I don’t I probably aint living to my fullest potential.
Nice summary, well outlined,
bardon wrote:simple wrote:bardon wrote:I love it when they moan about the lack of new housing. Its such a fantastic trend after all.I am sure there is a shortage….. somewhere in Australia, like mining towns
But in Brisbane…. I had vacancy now for 6 weeks…Sorry to hear this simple. Why do you think that it isn’t renting.
Hard to nail this one down accurately. But then again, out of 10 only one is vacant. So overall not too bad.
bigblueit wrote:Just my 2cQuite a good read for 2c.
In addition to the scenarios outlined in your post, what about the old fashioned, boring and some may say lazy, buy and hold investor that has already bought their houses and has no plans to do anything other than wait. There are those passive types that think nothing wrong of buying a few joints and then holding them for a very long time. They were also average type purchases, just normal houses in normal suburbs at normal values. If they can handle the holding cost and I would say that the majority can and the cash flow gets better each year then why should they do anything about the straw men kicking their door down? What can they do anyway, sell, that’s a tough call in this market but if you can’t handle no growth in the near term them maybe you should, but you will not be getting a good price if you sell now. The thing is if you bale on housing and say jump into another investment then you are going to have the same risk with the new thing so why bother?
How much are these Australian houses going to be worth in twenty years from now is my question, how much rent will they be pulling and how little will that outstanding I/O mortgage be in comparison with their equity and the rental income then?
Freckle wrote:A bit melodramatic even for you fWordThat's a bold statement, as if you knew me well. Come to think of it, I don't know any trolls.
bardon wrote:As for Assange he is the pasty for increased internet censorship and I think he is in on it, as this is, in my opinion staged.Bardon when you make comments like this I can’t take you seriously. You certainly have a perspective on things that is definitely ‘out there’.
Freckle wrote:bardon wrote:As for Assange he is the pasty for increased internet censorship and I think he is in on it, as this is, in my opinion staged.Bardon when you make comments like this I can’t take you seriously. You certainly have a perspective on things that is definitely ‘out there’.
Well for someone that was banging on a post or two ago about the lengths that govt will go to achieve their sinister goals, then maybe you should think a little more laterally about what you are saying.
So we have a child of a questionable cult, coming out the woodwork to found a supposedly anti establishment trendy website called Wikileaks. He then says he is too busy to read his material and choses a very senior and well connected member of the US elite to control the release of his material through the established media. Material that wasn’t top secret after all, material that did not contain any of the hyped up and promised spectacular revelations. Material that supported US foreign policy with respect to Iran, Korea and the war on terror.
The only thing that will come out of this will be a major political misinformation initiative that will serve to advance the US political agenda for internet censorship.
bardon wrote:The only thing that will come out of this will be a major political misinformation initiative that will serve to advance the US political agenda for internet censorship.If you look at the US and UK initiatives its more about legislation that allows them to monitor you. The censorship agenda is somewhat of a red herring to mask the increasing intrusiveness into an individuals personal affairs.
The Wider Agenda Of Internet Control
The Digital Economy Bill is intrinsically linked to long term plans by the UK government to carry out an unprecedented extension of state powers by claiming the authority to monitor all emails, phone calls and internet activity nationwide.
IN 2008, the government announced its intention to create a massive central database, gathering details on every text sent, e-mail sent, phone call made and website visited by everyone in the UK.
The programme, known as the “Interception Modernisation Programme”, would allow spy chiefs at GCHQ, the government’s secret eavesdropping agency, the centre for Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) activities (pictured above), to effectively place a “live tap” on every electronic communication in Britain in the name of preventing terrorism.The UK, Canada, Australia and NZ all have extensive communication surveillance system bases which are extensions of the NSA’s ECHELON global surveillance system. That’s being upgraded to a vastly larger more powerful system.
My guess is we will see public domain software (and commercial) rise to meet this challenge for personal privacy and security. I already use low level IP masking and encryption via VPN software. It’s early days yet and I’ve yet to get my head totally around it but this kind of software may become ubiquitous fairly quickly.
Very popular in China I believe.
Anyway back on topic…
Some months ago I ran across a graph that showed Chinese power consumption had suddenly gone off a cliff. I postulated that China’s economy hadn’t soft or hard landed but may have simply crashed (comparatively not literally if power production was a proxy for economic activity).
It appears that assessment might not be too far from the truth if this ZH article is anything to go by.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/turns-out-china-lying-about-everything
Turns Out China IS Lying About Everything
Record-setting mountains of excess coal have accumulated at the country’s biggest storage areas because power plants are burning less coal in the face of tumbling electricity demand. But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.
I think that one can infer from this that China is in bigger trouble than many realise and if it’s as bad as I think it is then Australian resources are in for a rough ride.
My parents have just come back from China yesterday, and after hearing what they had to say (I was in China earlier in the year and was seeing the same thing to a lesser extent), I would have to (for once
) agree with the Freckle. China's economy has slipped significantly, not that we didn't see this coming i'm sure, since if everyone's broke, who's buying.I still don't believe it's a big deal if the economy goes backwards, as stated before, if you sell in a bad economy your buying in a bad economy, so no problems unless your leveraged to the teeth, if house prices go down, so will interest rates, and I doubt rents will budge with everyone trying to buy out. So better cashflow all around…
Who is in for bumpy ride ?
Chart by BOQLooking at the chart, one can think that next move will be price appreciation! Fortunately, over my life experience I well thought that events develop in there own way regardless of what we think of them
Freckle wrote:Anyway back on topic…Some months ago I ran across a graph that showed Chinese power consumption had suddenly gone off a cliff. I postulated that China’s economy hadn’t soft or hard landed but may have simply crashed (comparatively not literally if power production was a proxy for economic activity).
It appears that assessment might not be too far from the truth if this ZH article is anything to go by.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/turns-out-china-lying-about-everything
Turns Out China IS Lying About Everything
Record-setting mountains of excess coal have accumulated at the country’s biggest storage areas because power plants are burning less coal in the face of tumbling electricity demand. But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.
Chinese lying say its not so
I think that one can infer from this that China is in bigger trouble than many realise and if it’s as bad as I think it is then Australian resources are in for a rough ride.
I see that the Guvnor has weighed into the debate. Saying that there was a lot more evidence of things that make a market crash five years ago than there is now. He went on to say that affordability is back at 2002 levels.
As for China, not that I think it is going to stop growing, a smaller growth % on a growing economy can be growth % the same as a higher growth % on the previously smaller economy.
bardon wrote:As for China, not that I think it is going to stop growing, a smaller growth % on a growing economy can be growth % the same as a higher growth % on the previously smaller economy.Have to read it few times to extract the meaning
All I have to say, is when you travel to China every year and compare changes you see, you will notice that 2012 in China look better on reports than in real world.Dr Steve Keen the uberbear seems to be painting himself into a corner with his response to he recent positive housing numbers. A months data does not mean that much in my books but the commentators seem to treat them like life or death.
To have an idea of the 'trend' you need something like 12 months with a sample size of a quoter. If someone can extract meaningful data from smaller sample in RE, I take my hat off.
) agree with the Freckle. China's economy has slipped significantly, not that we didn't see this coming i'm sure, since if everyone's broke, who's buying.
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