Property bust not here yet … worse to come

I wonder what the implications of smaller land sizes in new estates would be. Naturally I'd guess that our classic suburban house on a big block will turn into an 'old favourite'. Newcomers to the market might like brand new home and land packages, but perhaps when they tire of that, they'll trickle into old suburbs, buy up these big blocks and start to build their McMansions.

This is a good thing of course, for those of us who own average 3 bedroom houses on family-sized blocks. Either that, or it'd just become the norm to have 350sqm of land. Having said that, I can't help but drool over property listings featuring big plots of land. I mean, there's nothing quite like sitting on your deck and gazing out into a backyard that doesn't appear to end, or to walk out the front door and admire a beautifully planted large frontyard that's big enough for a picnic with friends and two cars still parked in the driveway.

If GST hits 15%, we'd all have whinge and whine about it for 3 weeks. And then we'll all get on with it. As it is I thought 10% was quite a blast, but we've pretty much all accepted it by now.

Additionally, if I had to bet, transport and amenities in already-established outer suburbs can only get better in the future. As people buy into suburbs even further out, amenities have to follow and there might be a ripple effect into the suburbs that are next to it. The trick is betting or guessing on which suburb is likely to become more 'central' in the future and become a mini-CBD or hub. If anyone catches onto these they'd be in for a fair bit of money long-term (ie. at least 10 year plan).

ok Simple. It's good but there is like a huge BUT……………..what about Melbourne? Yeah ok a median of the whole country shows one thing but the article basically banged on about Melbourne being crazy. So the median is down (a little) spread over the country. But individual markets are still rising including the rainy and crazy Melbourne market.

So now what for Melbourne? Anyone got a crystal ball so I know whether to buy in Melbourne or Perth? I need an 18 mth time frame so If the magic 8 ball says "you must seek another path" or "ask again later" can someone let me know so I can plan my whole life around it!

Speculation is getting us nowhere and really quickly. Strategize and run with it, as long as there is enough profit in the deal, the market can drop and the return will still be worth it. If the market drops by a huge amount we are all stuffed and you better board up your windows.

Just my 2 cents (again)

D

Hehe GOM I completely missed that. I was too busy reading about how property prices were UP and how Brissy was the only one  to record a fall! Whatever…

D

Hang on, hang on,

Brisbane was the only capital to record a fall, with house prices slipping 0.1 per cent in the March quarter, but up 9.1 per cent for the year to a median of $451,388.

LOL!

So it isn't really a fall if prices are up for the year?!

They have to have something to measure it against. Doesn't make it right. A lot of scientific theory is….theory. A lot of these figures are…..figures. Doesn't make them mean anything! Put a lot of figures together and then use some journalism, hey presto you have an article……

D

Definitely just a very botched band aid job designed to slow people down, who lets face facts don't really need slowing down.

Cmon KRUDD I'm spending less, biz is down, retail is down…..whaddya want? Most people are piling money into their mortgages than into retail spending.

So while the country is watching this hand (the RBA) and bitching about rate rises what is KRUDD doing with his other hand? Tightening some internet censorship? "Fixing" some anti terror laws? Wheeling and Dealing? Good on him for trying out some propaganda and trying to put out fires… that he started.

BTW was talking today to a friend who immigrated here some years ago who had a good rant about foreign ownership and how they thought the whole situation was going south pretty fast. I don't you have many friends left KRUDD.

Out you go MR Prime Minister and don't let the door hit you in the butt.

D

So, we just had ficially one month of negative RE value growth? Glitch or cooling down?

It would hardly be surprising to see a slowdown or even a slight drop in prices in the near future (ie. the next 6 months). Traditionally (as far as I've read), property makes spurts of growth with lull periods in between where prices can remain flat or even slightly fall over a period of years. The trick it appears, is timing the property market and buying during these lull periods where property is considered better value.

The additional tricky bit is that this graph apparently differs from suburb to suburb, so some suburbs might already be posting plateau in pricing or even falls but other suburbs may still be on their upswing. Based at least on this graph I'm happy to say that, at least for my suburb, I bought at the right time just as it was getting into the upswing (although this was purely by chance, not because I'm a technical chartist), and before that prices were pretty darn flat. If I get the chance I could photograph that and post it here as an example.

I've seen it written over and over again that property is a long-term investment. Sure, if you buy at the absolute right time you'll make a killing, but for the most part you're letting time do your bidding, and letting time give you a chance to reno a place and improve it before revaluation.

Good news for those holding rental properties is that, the relatively higher interest rates compared to that 6 months ago and higher prices will keep vacancies low as people struggle to find a PPOR and have to continue renting, and those who even thought of upgrading will hang on to their current houses for dear life, so you stand to gain as a landlord. But I pity those who have yet to own a house. I worry for my brother who has yet to set foot in the market but does need a house to stay ultimately.

Good points.

At least it would give people a reason to contribute to their super voluntarily rather than see it as something that will never bring them any income.

D