All Topics / General Property / Property bust not here yet … worse to come

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  • Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25255091-462,00.html

    UN backs new new global currency reserve

    A UNITED Nations panel of economists has proposed a new global currency reserve that would take over the US dollar-based system used for decades by international banks.

    The proposal follows the controversial call by China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, to create a new world currency reserve to replace the greenback as part of an overhaul of global finance.

    China and many developing countries blame the global crisis on US mishandling of over-extended mortgage loans and investments in them.

    With the US also borrowing trillions of dollars, it risks hyperinflation, which would considerably weaken the dollar.

    An independently administered reserve currency could operate without conflicts posed by the US dollar and keep commodity prices more stable.

     

    Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25255091-462,00.html

    UN backs new new global currency reserve

    A UNITED Nations panel of economists has proposed a new global currency reserve that would take over the US dollar-based system used for decades by international banks.

    The proposal follows the controversial call by China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, to create a new world currency reserve to replace the greenback as part of an overhaul of global finance.

    China and many developing countries blame the global crisis on US mishandling of over-extended mortgage loans and investments in them.

    With the US also borrowing trillions of dollars, it risks hyperinflation, which would considerably weaken the dollar.

    An independently administered reserve currency could operate without conflicts posed by the US dollar and keep commodity prices more stable.

     

    Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25255091-462,00.html

    UN backs new new global currency reserve

    A UNITED Nations panel of economists has proposed a new global currency reserve that would take over the US dollar-based system used for decades by international banks.

    The proposal follows the controversial call by China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, to create a new world currency reserve to replace the greenback as part of an overhaul of global finance.

    China and many developing countries blame the global crisis on US mishandling of over-extended mortgage loans and investments in them.

    With the US also borrowing trillions of dollars, it risks hyperinflation, which would considerably weaken the dollar.

    An independently administered reserve currency could operate without conflicts posed by the US dollar and keep commodity prices more stable.

     

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Yes I agree,

    This is what the unsophisticated investor is not seeing … we are living in a 90 year financial credit crisis crunch that will change the way we borrow and spend money.

    BANKS are cutting back every where on businesses and commercial lending, they are pulling out folks read the papers.

    Yes buy little cash flow positive properties or little shitters because that is where the money is.

    Look at the number of quality builders going to the wall … we will neot feel this effect for another 6 months yet …

    IF the market miraculously fixed itself tomorrow and properties went up 30% … where are you going to get the money and who are the buyers … CHINESE and other overseas nations are flooding our shores and buying the best properties at bargain prices …

    10 years from now where do you see Australia … In fact the whole globe is changing so fast its hard to keep up with it.

    This problem started with Nixon and it's not over yet … if you are aged between 18 – 28 your next 10 years will be very interesting.

    The gurus are still preaching "its the bottom" or "the boom is near" if you believe these people god help you.

    As a suggestion whatever they say get them to put it in writing and personally guarantee their financial advise because that's what they are giving you "unlicensed financial advise"

    D

    Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    The problem started in 1913 with the Federal Reserve… Not when Nixon floated the dollar

    People should be researching back hundreds of years ago when countries collapsed from having in place Central Banks… The world bubble we have to day makes all others in the history of planet earth seem like molehills

    I know I have posted this link several times before,  But I'm going to post it again in the hopes it will get more coverage, lol

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

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    wealth4life.com wrote:
    Yes buy little cash flow positive properties or little shitters because that is where the money is.

    Look at the number of quality builders going to the wall … we will neot feel this effect for another 6 months yet …

    There is not a lot of margin in the little shitters so any sudden jump in the material costs can also send the crappy quality builders to the wall. During the building boom a few years ago some builders were increasing house prices every 2 weeks or at least every month by a few $K at the time just so they could keep up with the increased labour and material costs during the up to 2 years building time.

    Quote:
    IF the market miraculously fixed itself tomorrow and properties went up 30% … where are you going to get the money and who are the buyers … CHINESE and other overseas nations are flooding our shores and buying the best properties at bargain prices …

    This problem started with Nixon and it's not over yet … if you are aged between 18 – 28 your next 10 years will be very interesting.

    The gurus are still preaching "its the bottom" or "the boom is near" if you believe these people god help you.

    OTOH if you are between 18-28 and believe the D&G bullshit merchants by the time it looks like a good time to buy the Chinese and other oversea nations that have the balls and the money to buy would have bought everything worth buying and then you'd really need God to help you. And its not just the housing, same thing is going on with our bluechip shares, our resources and every other company that is worth something. But hey, if they keep buying like that sooner or later the data will show a steady upwards trend, the newspaers will officially declare the start of a new boom and then the Australians will be sure that we've past the bottom and want to buy. Shame that by then everything will be overpriced or out of reach and unaffordable.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    harb wrote:
    OTOH if you are between 18-28 and believe the D&G bullshit merchants by the time it looks like a good time to buy the Chinese and other oversea nations that have the balls and the money to buy would have bought everything worth buying and then you'd really need God to help you. And its not just the housing, same thing is going on with our bluechip shares, our resources and every other company that is worth something. But hey, if they keep buying like that sooner or later the data will show a steady upwards trend, the newspaers will officially declare the start of a new boom and then the Australians will be sure that we've past the bottom and want to buy. Shame that by then everything will be overpriced or out of reach and unaffordable.

    The Chinese are smart enough to wait for the good deals, that are still coming.

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    ummester wrote:

    The Chinese are smart enough to wait for the good deals, that are still coming.

    You mean like your buddies from the other forum who've been waiting for the good deals in the property market since the beginning of this decade ? I was looking for some laughs so I went there to read some of the posts from 2005, the good deals were just a few months away and a crash just around the corner.  Four years on the good deals are still coming and the "smart buyers" who've been waiting for 4 years now would be happy to buy, if only there was a crash to bring the prices to what they were in 2005.  

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    Don't forget Harb, bear deposits are growing and property prices have kind of stopped recently. Means either bigger houses or less LVR for bears, so they don't really lose unless prices boom again and, if they do, i think Australia will have a mass exodus of people.

    Hey, you never answered my question about why only the housing industry gets a grant for new entrants and other industry doesn't, like automotive, small business etc? Houses special or something, are they?

    And, you'll never convince me to be a PI – but you may convince me to buy one day:)

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    ummester wrote:
    Don't forget Harb, bear deposits are growing and property prices have kind of stopped recently. Means either bigger houses or less LVR for bears, so they don't really lose unless prices boom again and, if they do, i think Australia will have a mass exodus of people.

    Yes but except for the last 2 years (or 5 years for Sydney) the house prices were growing faster then the average earner could grow his deposit. Lets say the bear managed to save a $50K deposit over the last 2-3 years when the house prices didn't go up and is now in front. All it takes is a 10% jump in that $500K home and it wiped out his deposit. 
    Mass exodus where, Detroit ?  

    Quote:
    Hey, you never answered my question about why only the housing industry gets a grant for new entrants and other industry doesn't, like automotive, small business etc? Houses special or something, are they?

    Sorry, must have missed it. The gov. has been giving money to the Automotive industry for decades to stop them closing their plants here as well as keeping the tariffs on import to make our industry more "competitive".  
    Lets say the gov. takes $50K in taxes from the house then returns $7K  (and for a limited period $14K-$21K) as a grant, what's so special about that ? How about if they removed the grant but also removed all taxes for the FHB ?  After all you get your rent GST free so why should the poor FHB pay tax on his PPOR so the government can subsidize you with cheap rental accommodation or rent assistance if you go into private rental ? Besides, the FHB creates jobs  from which the gov. can grab even more taxes.

    Quote:
    And, you'll never convince me to be a PI – but you may convince me to buy one day:)

    Why buy ? Keep renting and support your local PIs.

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Hello all time is a funny thing …

    Is the economy improving?

    Banks are tightening up lending criteria.

    What will happen to interest rates up or down?

    Will properties rise or fall?

    D

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    More questions D,

    Is what we observe now in share market and latest news lines a 'dead cat bounce" or sign of bottom?

    Top RE already good 20% down, is the bottom to follow any time soon?

    Is that just me seeing diamonds (over $20K) starting to loose the value and top cars (BMW, Merc, Bentley) been sold on auction as "unreserved price" ?

    More questions than answers…    we shall watch and wait 

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Hello Simple Philip here Danielle is in NZ

    Can I have permission to respond IMHO

    I believe a false sense of security is happening in the stock market – 80% of the market is from unsophisticated investors "hoping" to recover some loss. Robert Kiyosaki – love him or hate him" has some insightful points in his conspiracy of the rich book which is free online, please read and reference as you like.

    We are in the bottom of a cycle however I haven't touched the base yet in my opinion, the top end will hurt more as time goes on as I believe most of the big boys and girls holding onto expensive real estate are in a state of denial, but that will change.

    Mosman, Hunters Hill Peninsular, and the whole Eastern side of the north shore in Sydney is hurting really badly, and I believe after August 2009 the true values will start to emerge. HHP has dropped from 6.5 million to about 4.4 million dollars to give you an idea and that is from my personal research and is where I live also, ouch.

    Yes I have two mercs, not to brag, recently a friend of mine in Brisbane purchased a 2 year old E55 merc for 38K the car was sold new at just under 250k … these deals are around and more are coming.

    Steves new budget video is possibly conservative as a declining market can also create a negative or reverse vortex or implosion … possibly a depression if the G20 are not careful god forbid that ever happening …

    New markets for the next 3 years, medical, plus 55, aged care, imaging centers, food, internet income business and on line shopping, gold, oil cotton etc.

    Biggest concerns are borrowing money and job losses.

    Read as much as you can, educate yourself in every area and invest wisely … god bless and good luck.

    PS

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    I like to keep this thread alive. It is one of the oldest – early warning. I want to see if it will eventuate  and to what degree.

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    OMG simple is this here again?

    Thank you … I specialize in research analysis … gurus don't like me because their predictions are based on self egos and over opinionated self worth … oh please pay me for every time I read "we are at the bottom of the market" …

    There is amazing opportunities to make massive amounts of money in todays market and more away from real estate …

    80% of property is not a good investment you need to be smart and you need to know the difference between an ASSET and a future LIABILITY.

    And yes last week I exchanged on another positive cash flow property in Sydney walk rail shops and school.

    My prediction for the records is that top end properties will come back another 30% approximately over the next 6 months … OK gurus tell me your name and tell us your prediction haha … lets have some fun … Australand have written down their property portfolio by 235 million dollars hmm why is that I wonder??????

    D … Thanks Simple

    You cannot expect to get a different result if you apply the same thinking that got you into trouble in the first place – Albert Einstein

    Profile photo of diggerdigzitdiggerdigzit
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    wealth4life.com wrote:

    Thank you … I specialize in research analysis … gurus don't like me because their predictions are based on self egos and over opinionated self worth … oh please pay me for every time I read "we are at the bottom of the market" …

    aren't the gurus research analysts also?

    wealth4life.com wrote:

    80% of property is not a good investment you need to be smart and you need to know the difference between an ASSET and a future LIABILITY.

    C'mon, isn't that generalising just a little bit, and generalising just a little bit too high percentage wise. You could show me where that figure comes from and prove me wrong, but sorry I just can't agree with that.

    wealth4life.com wrote:
    OMG simple is this here again?

    My prediction for the records is that top end properties will come back another 30% approximately over the next 6 months … OK gurus tell me your name and tell us your prediction haha … lets have some fun … Australand have written down their property portfolio by 235 million dollars hmm why is that I wonder??????

    Crikey, thank the god of money I am not rich, again WFL, i feel a bit over the top, but time will tell. So lets meet back here in 6 months and see who's right. I am always the first to admit when i am wrong – in fact I am quite used to it. I call maybe 10% tops within six months, if that. However I only know a small opart of the Australian market and top end stuff it's not!! But I myself do a bit of researching in myspare time and i still feel 30% is a massive call if we are talking Australia wide.

    Profile photo of diggerdigzitdiggerdigzit
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    wealth4life.com wrote:
    OMG simple is this here again?

    My prediction for the records is that top end properties will come back another 30% approximately over the next 6 months … OK gurus tell me your name and tell us your prediction haha … lets have some fun … Australand have written down their property portfolio by 235 million dollars hmm why is that I wonder??????

    from todays Australian:

    "The consolidation that began in the March 2009 quarter has now transformed into strong growth across the country," APM economist Matthew Bell said.

    He said that while low interest rates, flat prices and first-home owner grants supported the affordable end of the market through the end of last year and early this year, "it's the upper end of the market that's driven the strong growth in the major capitals in the June quarter".

    For Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, he said, median prices in the top 50 per cent of suburbs grew by nearly double the rate of those of the bottom 50 per cent.

     

    Now I am bloody p@#*&% off again about not being rich.

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Hi digger and oh dear i've done it again,

    You read the papers yesterday and then today the story is different … so read more papers and not just Australian papers in the credit crisis.

    Like him or not I tend to believe Harry Dents report that it is not over for Australia which is behind the world trends and his prediction is a drop between 35 – 55% … 55 I don't think so but 35 it can happen.

    Inflation means higher interest rates and RISING prices and the lower end of the market cannot afford that – our own sub prime ? hhmmm is that probable I don't know but lets wait and see.

    Ring McGrath real estate in Hunters Hill (top 5 best suburbs in Sydney) and go see the top end there around 4 – 7 million dollars now selling for around 40% off with no takers IT IS NOT rising it is still falling, the same as the Eastern side of pacific highway on the north shore and suburbs like Mosman – walk the streets and talk to real people not the papers who extract small amounts of news then rewrite their story a week later. One sells for a great price then all the news says that the recovery is back … c..p you need more than one to substantiate that prices are rising again.

    Meriton, Australand, Stocklands, Mirvac and many more great companies are down on their figures why is that digger? … 20% of Australias population (baby boomers) start to retire in 2010 (5 million people digger) Banks are making it harder to get money, interest rates will rise fast over the next 18 months as said by our Mr Kevin Rudd who also said the worst is not over …. hhmmm what does he know that we don't … cost of living has gone through the roof go ask your mother how much she spends just to have a roof over your head and feed you each week … unemployment figures are getting worse hhmmm what does that mean to pricing and getting credit …. credit debt in Australia has hit 50 billion dollars the worst per head of population in the world … is this doom and gloom NO it's research and getting a true understanding to what is happening so I can make a better diecission about my future and giving advise to my clients which I am licensed to do.

    If u knew me you would say what a positive and optimistic person but when you read text it's a different picture digger, I have many battle scars some wins and some losses and thast equals experience … I appreciate your comments very much I really do and I will pick up my act and be more accurate … 

    I would say that more than 80% of the gurus are not real millionaires and have no formal qualifications to give financial advise that's why TDFT are going through sprookers web sites of people who are not licensed giving advise on INVESTMENTS.

    Is my prediction of 80% too high in my property performance hhmmm possibly … how many people are losing their homes and how many have negative equity still – ha they said that would never happen as well digger but it did and it will happen again soon with the first home owners when interest rates rise and petrol hits $1.50 a litre

    I know 3 valuation companies who refuse to value first home owners homes because they believe they are 20% over priced, is that true and and are they correct lets wait and see, thats why the banks want savings history digger to make sure when the s..t hits the fan their lenders are a higher class of person than the USA sub primer, did you know or understand that one?. Did you read the FREE copy of the conspiracy of the rich by Robert Kiyoski?

    Digger when the FHG is over what will happen to the building industry … do you understand how many good developers are going to the wall because the banks won't lend them money unless they have 90% pre sales ?? … yes demand is high but at what cost … Castle Hill (good average) in Sydney is hot around 400 – 600k but everything else is struggling UNLESS it is really good and that is where the bargins are … me got money this my offer you take or me go.

    I'm old fashioned digger I believe a good real estate ASSET (not a liability) comes with walk rail, train, bus, Westfield, hospital, schools, childcare, medical, etc etc not speculating in country towns that if the sole industry closes so will you … look at the effect of some of the towns in USA where GM has pulled out … been there done that and not again … not all real estate doubles every 10 years.

    D  gosh I feel good today living in Sunny Sydney with my office view of the harbour bridge, i'm grateful, have a wonderful day.

    Profile photo of diggerdigzitdiggerdigzit
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    Hi WFL,

    My word, I wont kid myself that i have bought out the passion that caused the epic reply, i am quite sure your a very passionate person as it is. I am glad you are feeling good today as I am heavy with flu, with a sick child to boot. 

    My office does not have such grandeur on the opposite side of theglass, but it does have a few horses and paddocks, so I too am grateful for all I have as well. except for the bloody flu – the worst part is my wife is happily whistling about the place packing for a week in Fiji with her girlfriends tomorrow, 28 degrees she keeps telling me. So please forgive me with this short reply, I will return in full force as early as tomorrow, when i should be sharp enough to Remise your Riposte.

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    I personally know nothing about the economy, but observe thinks… and manage manufacturing facility with 50 staff. I had 25 out of 50 working 3 days/week for about 9 months now. I am not looking to return to full capacity any time soon. We manage to maintain this level by getting new business and introducing new products. People seem to be happy to have that they got, they need no pay rises, just happy to have work tomorrow.
     

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