- wealth4life.com wrote:Hi Hard,
Yes this thread has been going since 2006 … because the bubble burst in 2005 at the peak.
When the bubble burst in Sydney, more of a slow leak actually, everything spilled nicely into the other capitals. What bubble burst ?
Compare the Australian median prices on 2005 with 2008 or compare the capital cities for the same periods. Sydney was the only city that has not experienced solid growth which is why I think it could be the first to start moving.Quote:We are in a WORLD credit crisis … if the market in property starts going up tomorrow say 30% across the board who has the capacity to BUY when jobs and wages are being suspended?????The times earning ratio on affordability is way out of wack … thats the problem so can a person on $100,000.00 income buy a 2 million dollar property and raise two kids on it at a 100% home loan … show me …
The market is not going up 30% tomorrow or even this year, at least I don't think so. Renting is getting to be more expensive then buying so the question is WHO would rent if they can BUY cheaper ?
As for the person on a $100,000 income maybe he should start with a $300,000 property instead of going straight for the 2 million dollar property ? I wouldn't mind buying a $100+ million property but unfortunately for me my bank manager thinks that I too have a problem with the earnings/affordability ratio.
gmh454 wrote:Still think all my points will fall into line, though I do see your angles, and they will have some impact, and on Perth been waiting since 2003, and it is very very soon.
I really do feel sorry for anyone waiting since 2003 and this would explain the hopes for a miraculous 50%-60% crash that some people have. They've made the mistake of waiting for a correction and refused to admit they could be wrong, its called being in denial and I'm guilty of it sometimes.
Probably would act the same way now if I gave in to temptation in 2003, after prices went up so much between 2000 and 2003 (compared with the previous 10 years) I was seriously thinking to sell my IPs and buy them back when they fell 20%. Good thing I didn't or now I'd be hanging around at ghpc praying for a miracle.
http://www.reiaustralia.com.au/documents/MR_25_June_2003_House_Prices_Climb.docHobart recorded the highest quarterly growth of 12.0% for its median house price of $165,000. The quarterly increases in other capital cities were 7.7% to $265,000 for Canberra, 5.5% to $201,000 for Adelaide, 4.2% to $202,600 for Perth, 3.6% to $347,000 for Melbourne, 3.5% to $265,000 for Brisbane, 3.4% to $215,000 for Darwin and 2.2% to $460,000 for Sydney.
harb wrote:They've made the mistake of waiting for a correction and refused to admit they could be wrong, its called being in denial and I'm guilty of it sometimes.
Harb the lights have just turned amber and that nice elderly couple who smiled so sweetly at my little dog, are quietly waiting for the green, and don't see the guy coming in the truck nailing the throttle which is not picking up as he expected….
oh no…………………………..
gmh454 wrote:harb wrote:They've made the mistake of waiting for a correction and refused to admit they could be wrong, its called being in denial and I'm guilty of it sometimes.
Harb the lights have just turned amber and that nice elderly couple who smiled so sweetly at my little dog, are quietly waiting for the green, and don't see the guy coming in the truck nailing the throttle which is not picking up as he expected….
oh no…………………………..
What has that got to do with the price of eggs in Tasmania ?
devo76 wrote:What has that got to do with the price of eggs in Tasmania ?Generally a vehicle speeding towards a slow moving object (such as pedestrians) results in a CRASH:)
gmh454 wrote:Harb the lights have just turned amber and that nice elderly couple who smiled so sweetly at my little dog, are quietly waiting for the green, and don't see the guy coming in the truck nailing the throttle which is not picking up as he expected….
oh no…………………………..
I'd say you'll be in need of another dog. This time get yourself a Rhodesian Ridgeback , even if your dog won't survive to seek revenge on the truck driver at least the panel beating bill will be much larger.
ummester wrote:devo76 wrote:What has that got to do with the price of eggs in Tasmania ?Generally a vehicle speeding towards a slow moving object (such as pedestrians) results in a CRASH:)
Why does the slow moving object have to be a pedestrian ? It could just as well be the property steamroller.
gmh454 wrote:[
Live in the area and we breed rabbits, lots of and lots of Peters with bright blue coats and shiny brass buttons. (you would thinks the snakes would get down the burrows and finish them off…..damm lazy snakes)Thanks gmh454. Rabbits, huh? For eating? Like a business? Mum's having trouble with foxes with her chooks. They had this lovely idea of semi self sufficient living, then found out how much hard work it is to pluck a duck, and just how much corn it takes to fatten them! Something of a reality check, I think. I think I'll stick with killing our own beef – much more practical.
SHales wrote:Rabbits, huh? For eating? Like a business?
Unfortunately our rabbits don't need help with breeding, but they do look so fit and healthy we are all very proud, except our 14 yr old Jack Russel, which will eventually die of a heart attack chasing them. ……..and they are so thoughtful they give him a fair chance, don't even move until he is ten metres away…
My wife was a huge Beatrix Potter fan, ….and she now is know as "Farmer Gibbs mean wife " to paraphase Beatrix.
Yep know how your parents feel, the Hills have that attraction I love it, just wish someone else would try and hold back nature and its relentless pursuit to take our property back..
wish your parents good luck..
gmh454 wrote:just wish someone else would try and hold back nature and its relentless pursuit to take our property back..wish your parents good luck..
Yeah, nature can be a bi+ch (from flooded NW QLD). thanks for the luck.
Hello all,
Well it's obvious that we are still not at the bottom … the only market moving at the moment is the first home owner market and the TAX payer is paying for that one or will in the future.
I am still reading all the gurus we are at the bottom and now is the time to buy …. blah
Several reliable sources indicate that we haven't felyt the worst until August … so what is your prediction of the bottom and why.
D
Very near the bottom if not there in Melb, Sydn, Bris for starter homes which is all that I am interested in. I dont think there is such a perfect moment of, this is the bottom, but we are near it. Thats not to say that growth is coming back, merely a long boring phase (recovery) of no more price drops, stock dropping and first home buyers and investors (not sepculators) renetering the market.
If the starter homes get any cheaper then it just means that either investors will make more cash flow or renters will have a clearer economic reason to move into ownership.
Townsville: Not yet at the bottom. Recently laid off miners don't seem to be truly hurting yet. While I see some properties moving and promisingly low prices, there is alot of people still adverrtising at last years prices, alot of properties on the market for quite a while, and plenty of FHO's out there exiting rentals (slowing rental demand), and buying houses. The market seems divided. Those who seriously want to sell, are SOMETIMES having to go quite low. Some sellers manage a buyer at a reasonable price. Not enough pain the market to call it the bottom. Rental yield on asking price(standalone freehold housing) is still only 4 – 5.5%, depending upon location (generally). Of course, you can better this, but this seems to be about average. Doesn't signal a buy for me yet.
SNot there yet. WA to hurt more than other states. But on average i would say another 10 to 15% drop across Australia. Not a 40% +drop thats for sure. What do i base that on. Nothing. Just what i see when i take a step back and look at whats going on around me.
I really hate this subject in away but it's such a need to know – somehow !
But unfortunately I don't think the roll down the old hill has even begun yet and it really surprises me that people could be thinking about the bottom – has it even begun ?
Things have flattened some sure and some drops and slows , you hear figures of what 3 and 4 , sometimes 10% , correct me if I'm wrong .
But I hardly think that's what all the fuss is about, that's nothing after the boom and our still now still 7 and 8 times the average wage prices unfortunately , not even close to a correction .
I realize some of the expensive luxury type stuff is seeing a lot more than that but that's expected as that stuff really was getting out of this world for what allot of it was .Isn't anyone thinking that we could well be last in the Q and that America could well be coming out of it as we're only hitting the real rough stuff , same China ?
We both could well be 6 -12 mths away from it really hitting the fan , wish I knew.
Or , maybe our prices will do what people were saying Aussie prices have done before , not so much drop but stagnate until the balance returns , dunno , wish I did .
Read one report today saying they expect mid to late 09 to be the roughest and then improvement through end 09 to recovery late 2010.
Just like before , you can find a report that says just about anything so it's not much help.
devo76 wrote:Not there yet. WA to hurt more than other states. But on average i would say another 10 to 15% drop across Australia. Not a 40% +drop thats for sure. What do i base that on. Nothing. Just what i see when i take a step back and look at whats going on around me.10-15% + 5-10% already experienced = 25%. A year ago, you lot thought I was full of it for claiming 30% drops were coming. 25% is pretty close and I am still sure theat the national average drop will be at least 30% by the time this is done.
40% and above will be in the worst places. Small costal, mining towns etc.
Where I was wrong is that I thought we would crash hard and fast like America but now it seems we will have the slow Japan style deflation. Better for the country but worse for PPORs buyers. House prices aren't going up any time soon and, though some loans would cost close to current rental prices, long term the best stratergy is still to save as much of the purchase cost as possible (or buy a bigger house) sometime over the next 5-10 years.
Now, if you want a big tele, get in before July but as close to july as possible (after all the government stimulus do dads are done with). Luxury electronics goods are going to skrocket next financial year for a whole multitude of reasons (none of which will make the producers of retailers any better of).
The new financial year will also be when we get a good idea of how low house prices will go, I recon.
devo76 wrote:Not there yet. WA to hurt more than other states. But on average i would say another 10 to 15% drop across Australia. Not a 40% +drop thats for sure. What do i base that on. Nothing. Just what i see when i take a step back and look at whats going on around me.Same Same. Youl get that 10-15% drop after the FHOG finishes. Before the grant ends this year theres going to be a mad influx of people trying to get the grant before the cut off date, Mainly young adults/kids who dont know better. Then when it ends youl see a massive void in people buying which will make prices fall again. There guaranteed to fall because of this
… Before the cut off date a lot of vendors will take advantage of the rush and jack there prices up by roughly 10 percent. Then when the date comes and goes there will be reports all over the news of about how shit things are because of the void. Typical front page stuff.
Ol Rudd man will check things out for a few months after july and see the economy is turning to shit again. Probably about august, after australia absorbs the doom and gloom of the half yearly reports from overseas(USA, China etc), which are guaranteed to be shit. Even shitter then now. Should be a few closures in perth making the headlines…prices go down again
Im predicting the DOW Jones index will drop to about 6850 in September. which basically means the worlds turned to…you guessed right.shit. buut
in late 2010 everythings going to go flat then rocket. Thats when you should buy. Well its when i plan 2.
p.s
Rudd will probably try extend the grant. But the opposition and media will pummel him into submission. So no grant extension. but then again i could be completely wrong which wouldn't be the first time.
Standing on the top of mount Everest, We fall to a cliff three meters down and everyone is proclaiming this is the bottom… ROFL
Every bubble creates a similar shape coming down only mirror reversed, Ive seen the charts ! lol
No recovery will come in 2009 or 2010 or 2011… We have 15 years of bad times ahead of us… But lets just wait and see how everything is doing at the start of 2010.
hbbehrendorff wrote:Standing on the top of mount Everest, We fall to a cliff three meters down and everyone is proclaiming this is the bottom… ROFLEvery bubble creates a similar shape coming down only mirror reversed, Ive seen the charts ! lol
No recovery will come in 2009 or 2010 or 2011… We have 15 years of bad times ahead of us… But lets just wait and see how everything is doing at the start of 2010.
In the latest API magazine they had it exactly right in a article about the health of the property market. by saying "no one knows" which is true. I having got a F#$%n clue. Just guessing. like you
hbbehrendorff wrote:Standing on the top of mount Everest, We fall to a cliff three meters down and everyone is proclaiming this is the bottom… ROFLEvery bubble creates a similar shape coming down only mirror reversed, Ive seen the charts ! lol
No recovery will come in 2009 or 2010 or 2011… We have 15 years of bad times ahead of us… But lets just wait and see how everything is doing at the start of 2010.
Geezus man i need to know. Where do you get that crystal ball from. You must have the most accurate crystal ball ever made to be so confident on what is going to happen. Cmon tell me. Was it barrons bargains, the dollar shop. share share.
Probably would act the same way now if I gave in to temptation in 2003, after prices went up so much between 2000 and 2003 (compared with the previous 10 years) I was seriously thinking to sell my IPs and buy them back when they fell 20%. Good thing I didn't or now I'd be hanging around at ghpc praying for a miracle. 
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