Aussie John on Sunday Show

Listening to Aussie John on the radio he was more or less talking about apartments from what I heard, however, it was only a breif talk..

I’m not concerned for the properties I hold (I’m actually expecting more CG), but as we’re aware there are so many different ‘markets’ within the property market as a whole..

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Wilandel, I seen the story and he certainly talked the market down. Are we not just simply seeing the reality now that the property cycle changed direction some time ago in Sydney and now the price drops will ripple out just as the growth did. The guys that swear by the property cycle are saying that everything that is happening now is predictable and we will see more and more media doom and gloom reports negative consumer sentiment and the one group that will be actively buying houses will be those that are on a life cycle where they are buying because it supports the stage of life they are at eg first home, upgrading, downgrading, moving etc. History tends to repeat itself and they say that interest rates are not a driver either so if rates don’t go up we will still have a slump. Me personally I am watching and waiting the ozzie housing market and doing other things at the moment.

hi all

Call me a bit synical but if you sell rain jackets the best way to sell jacket is by saying its going to rain.
Just like real estate say its the best time to buy ( from me).
If there is a seller there is a buyer and if he’s a buyer he’s a lendee, next you will see a holden dealer saying all 5 year holdens should be replaced with a new model.
three things to ask.
1 Is the person giving the information into property developing (yes)
2 Is he selling his own properties (no)
3 If you do as he suggests is there any gain for the person giving the advice (yes)
I am looking at this from a sydney market place and as for growth yes if you want some crystal balling I think that within 12 months there will be a shortage of real estate in the sydney market and if that happens prices will rise but maybe aussie john is being hit by other lenders and as prices rise people shop around for value in finance.
I don’t know aussie john and have never organised a loan with his group but when a lender talks down a market there is a reason.
example
If you go to an auction the best way to get the lowest price is go to ever open house find large problems with the house that are not there ( that way the real estate can’t deny them then at auction tell the auctioneer that you still haven’t had an answer and watch people walk way less buyers more control).

This is a buyer market (here in sydney)if you want to get rid of a bit of opposition tell everyone that the wall is going to fall in or in this case that the market is going to drop.
If you know anything about the sydney market you should remember that pyrmont was going to have to be cleaned for years by CSR and the the meriton group bought all the land and released the whole area with no CSR cleaning as it didn’e need to happen and no other devepoler went in as it looked to hard (shame).
Swim out side the waves and watch the market. Currently rentals in Sydney are still climbing,
That doesn’t tell me unless Im looking at the figures wrong and I haven’t yet, that demand is increasing not decreasing the only problem is that investment is not there to cap the rental demand.
When rental gets over loan for product repayments then investors will come back into the market (but if you wait till then you will be to late)but then you have to have product to purchase hence price goes up.
The big boys are waiting for the same as everyone else and watch these figures also and I don’t think they are worried about Aussie John they are what they call land banking with site that are DA’d or in for da.
I think watch the activity of the large site in Sydney start to move around may to june next year at the current vacancy rates will be that time that rents will be over repayments.
example
Marrickville
1 br unit rental 6 months ago $240 a week current $310
2 br unit 6 months ago $300 a week current
$400
loan on $510K at 7% $700 per week
In marrickville there are no new 1 br unit approved and my site of 19 X 1 br units 1 x 2br is in da awaiting to come out,
The rental today would cover $230k and waiting for the rental to stop moving up.
buy the time I get it to cc and built I project that that rental of 1 br in this area will be above $400 per week 1 br and near to $600 2 br
If and when this happens the house price must rise
as there is no stock.
Simple supply and demand.

I have done this on Sydney market as I only deal in my market.
As for bounce back I can see it being a J if my projection are right.
This is not advice and should not be taken as such and not to be mean but the less investors in my market place the better I enjoyed it when then all went to Qld but they seem to be comming back which is a little worry.
So wilandel I hope that the property that you invest in does do well, as I wish all to do well, any investment will do well as long as your person fundimentals are right.

here to help

Isn’t his core business Aussie Home Loans?

From a real estate/economics layman, what I garnished from the interview was the concern for the overcommitters who now have ‘negative’ equity. That, combined with rising interest rates reeks of bad news to the banks who will run the risk of losing their cash. More his concern I’d imagine?

It was, but for some time now he realised there was far more money to be earned in offering a wider variety from many loan providers.

I’m cynical of his motives…he has a public profile and he knows how and when to use it. Don’t you think his concern will make more of the declining number of borrowers go to his brokers, due to the perception, ‘at least he’s giving it to us straight’… gee thanks…

By encourageing people to sell, it means more people buying, and more brokerage! Most other commentators will tell you to sit on your RE and ride it out … but John would not want that, not much brokerage in that! … disgruntled brokers

Where was his warnings of concern during the boom when he was raking in the cash and grinning from ear to ear!

His ostentacious sydney house is all about ‘ME’… I can’t see him cashing it in to help those of his cutomers now sitting on negative equity.

His word are cheap, he needs turnover/brokerage earning! O hope people see through him and DON’T panic sell!!!

hi serkan
Sorry for this bit of help but there is no good or bad time to buy an good investment.
If your cashed up and real estate meets your requirements this is a good as you are going to get to purchase.
As you can negotiate very well in this market.
I am currently cashing up my equity to go on a very healthy spending spree which started 2 months ago and will go for a little time longer as depending on the offers that are out at the moment.
Three main things to look for me are.
1.equity against cost ( item must move up in value in excess of 10%)
2. cash flow (if no equity growth cash flow in excess of 9%)
3. position ( is the item in an area that currently isn’t doing either of the above but all my indicators tell me that it will do one of them).
and I price it accordingly.
non of the above has anything to do with market movement as it is worked out over long term projections.
If you are worried about movements then go for commercial there is no movements there and you can if you pick it right also get growth but will only get 60% lvr unless you pay higher interest rate which eats into your return.

here to help

What I found funny is that he says sell your investments, and also says no one buy property.. So if everyone is selling, who buys?? Where is the logic there??

I just thinks it’s just one point of view and there are alot of others..

At the end of the day, people need housing and if it means everyone is rushing to the market desperatley to sell.. Me and my client investors are there ready to snap up the deals.. “Buyers Market”

And if no one is buying, then everyone is renting, better returns for us!

There are a million ways of looking at this; when ever there is a gloomy cloud in the sky, there is a bright sun right behind it..

Roy H.
L.R.E.A., Dip FS (FP)

Guardian Property Specialists (GPS) is a research-focused company that specialises in sourcing and providing residential investment properties Australia wide!

http://www.gpsnetwork.com.au

There are no completely isolated, totally seperate ‘markets’ in the real estate world. The closest you’ll get is residential vs commercial vs industrial. Believe me, a further 10-18% fall in Sydney median house price as mentioned in the article (on top of the 7-10% already experienced) would have a ripple effect through every suburb in every city in the country. Not least because it would bring some of our major banks to the brink of financial armageddon…
It is one big market with local variations and also timing variations. Sure Perth prices are still on the up, but so were Sydney prices in 2003 when Perth was still languishing behind. Tassie was booming late last year, but is now seeing falling prices – same for Brisbane / GC. A big part of the story involves interstate investors who have seen their ‘local market’ (in your speak) flatten and look elsewhere for some action. This works both ways, driving prices up faster and futher than a purely isolated market could, then the inverse once the profits are hoovered out.

Cheers & crackers, F.[cowboy2]

Aussie John is completely right. Cashed up as quick as you can.

Clones

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The net result is not so much lies, damn lies and statistics but rather vendor dreaming, buyer wishing and agent glossing.

Hi Foundation,

Wasn’t the armageddon supposed to happen last year or was it 2003? Maybe it will be next year or the year after!

Cheers

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