- If the economy goes bad these same poor FHBs are going to be on the wrong end of the stick again
I agree entirely. The ideal scenario would be a fall in house prices with no recession. Unfortunately I can’t see it happening because so much of recent economic growth has come from the housing industry. We really should be aiming to create a more broad-based economy. i.e. do more than build houses for each other, and dig stuff up and sell it to the Chinese.
What do you think that little thing called the Free Trade Agreement is all about. The Government is trying to increase export sales through new agreements.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI never said anything like high house prices are a good thing.I assumed you thought I was being “negative” because I was happy about house prices falling. Surely that must mean your idea of “positive” is that house prices continue to climb. If not, please define what “negative” and “positive” mean, and I will try not to offend your sensibilities.
Publishers love people like you as the negative headlines and articles work so well on you. You will never see the happy stories in the media at great levels because they just don’t sell papers and magazines.Perhaps I should pick up a Tony Robbins video, that should sort me out [biggrin]
I will never respect any of your comments until they are your own.Sorry no can do. I will continue to provide supporting evidence for my views.
Any moron could have seen that none of the dot com stocks that collapsed were viable investments. They had disgusting PE Ratios…The PE for property (i.e. rental yields) are almost as bad.
Please give us all a break from this crapWell, I think the forum would be poorer for it. 100% bullish or 100% bearish forums are always a bit dull — everyone agreeing with each other — its much more fun if there are opposing views.
What do you think that little thing called the Free Trade Agreement is all about.Don’t get me started on the FTA … trust me, it will never end.
dmichie, the reason I take issue with your comments is because they are not impartial, they are repetitive and you misinterpret everything that is said by others.
There is another category besides bullish (positive) and bearish (negative). It is called ‘neutral’. I neither believe any bubble will burst nor do I believe things will boom. I am content with the current state of the economy and how it is correcting itself. I do not see any further huge movements in property or the Aus dollar in the next 18-24 months.
I am just hoping the North Shore property prices boom out of control and the Aus dollar increases rapidly to prove me wrong though. I would be rolling on the floor laughin my ass off!
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserFirst, let me say that I love that you just keep this going and going. You keep bumping the ‘doom and gloom’ threads up to the top of the list and people keep reading them. Great!
dmichie, the reason I take issue with your comments is because they are not impartialSure I’d like to pay less for my next house but that’s about the extent of my impartiality. Certainly my livelihood doesn’t depend on the real estate industry continuing to prosper.
I neither believe any bubble will burst nor do I believe things will boomEntirely possible, and the RBA is crossing fingers and toes this is what will happen.
I am just hoping the North Shore property prices boom out of control and the Aus dollar increases rapidly to prove me wrong though.Dunno why you keep talking about the north shore, but anyway, if the AUD appreciates much further the Australian economy will be in some serious s***. You, me, everybody.
I would like to make a couple of points arising from this thread, which are not immediatly obvious:
dmichie said – “Perhaps I should pick up a Tony Robbins video, that should sort me out”
Just to ensure you keep true to us bears, I will be happy to furnish you with a nice little CD Tony Robbins put together with Robert Prechter…discussing the imminent collapse of the US economy.
Greg F said: – “The bottom line? Let all the doom and gloomers sit on their hands whilst more experienced operators keep making money.”
The monumental assumption that: a/ bears sit on their hands and b/ bears are not experienced, is not likely to be accurate. A true bear is in fact an eager and seasoned buyer in my experience. He will however be looking for value and sanity to be restored to the marketplace before buying with ears pinned back.
As a matter of fact most miss the point of the doom and gloomers… and that is to talk down an inflated market so that we can buy value.
So just adding my voice here…The economy is ****ed and you should all panick sell before the sky falls down HAhahaha
Robert said: – “I especially love it when the US stock market is in a downward trend. It is easy money!!!”
I also noticed the hypocricy…and whilst agreeing with the comment, I have to say that a bull market is much easier money for several reasons….most importantly, because the influense of 0 on the mathematics, and its effect on risk/reward ratios.
…just joining in the fun folks LOL
Cheers
Dimichie,
You may be entering the zone of the Chicken Little Clan … the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
I love doom and gloom and i also love a level playing field for making money. Through the boom many new young people made money however, now that the market has changed the seasoned investor is rubbing their hands together.
Dimichie … what are some solutions to this that u can think of. My point is if we focus on problems we attract problems, but if we focus on profits deals come our way.
For all the new and young people on this site, there is hope believe me and i can assure u that some one some where in Australia is profiting in property.
Has anybody ever read a news paper written in 1950 – 1960 – 1970 etc they all filled with doom and gloom thats what sells, i read once that an american guy started a good news newspaper and went broke ha ha …
How about this deal i am looking at buying … retirement units 100% occ. 70k purchase rent 144per/wk
There is a life time opportunity every day, u just have to TRAIN yourself to SEE – HEAR it
resiwealth
Good post resiwealth!!!
I was trying to convey that regardless of all the doom and gloom stories everywhere (especially here from dmichie), some good stories can come out. When I am driving and come to road blocks, I look for detours. I guess that most ‘positive’ people (and I don’t mean people who are bullish) would be also looking for the detour amongst all the road blocks. If they cannot find a detour, they will find another way – eg: cross-country or walking.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI do not how many leads from your advertising your website and your title. Obviously, when those not experenced people on this forum is influenced by you and other “positive” comments to buy an get burnt, you will say “poor” guys with no experience … you are “hahaha…” I also knew an investor following some kinds of advice and signed contract and spent $40000 renovating – to make a good buck as advised by some book or someone. Guess what – the bank did not approve the loan … He borrowed $40 000 and changed a lot of the house .. in the court now. We do wish some good and nutrial thing on this forum not only your ONLY positive comments to woo someone to use your services
It is unethic to when share brokers recommend to sell when itself are buying…
Amused, your post is very difficult to understand but can you just clarify if that was directed at me?
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI was trying to convey that regardless of all the doom and gloom stories everywhere (especially here from dmichie), some good stories can come out. When I am driving and come to road blocks, I look for detours. I guess that most ‘positive’ people (and I don’t mean people who are bullish) would be also looking for the detour amongst all the road blocks. If they cannot find a detour, they will find another way – eg: cross-country or walkingDear oh dear Robert, methinks you’ve read one too many self-help books. I bet you have ‘challenges’ rather than ‘problems’ don’t you?
You don’t need to walk around with a fixed grin on your face to achieve something in life. A good dose of skepticism and cynicism will get you further. All this positivity is leading me to think you’re an expat Yank. True?
I do not read self-help books. I do not need them to tell me to be confident. Regarding challenges and problems, you are way of the mark. I have one particular problem at the moment which is rather annoying. You might know ‘HIM’! I am also facing a challenge which is to get rid of the problem.
You are extremely one-eyed in your opinions and your negativity can not be of any assistance to anyone. You are not just providing information but trying to put everyone off and bring them down so you can benefit financially. That is not what anyone needs.
If I was a “Yank”, would that be a problem for you?
I think my email should extend to here as well.
Have fun.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserIf I was a “Yank”, would that be a problem for you?Not at all.
Lets change the subject, maybe we can find something we agree on? What did you think of Cossie’s last budget? A big tick for abolishing the 12.5% super surcharge, but I wish he’d lowered the top marginal rate instead of moving the bracket up to $95K (2005) and $125K (2006)
Compare our top rate (48.5%) with that in the UK, US and NZ:
UK: top rate of 40% starting at $84K
US: top rate of 35% starting at $315K
NZ: top rate of 39% starting at (a very low) $56KI am very impressed with the Budget. I think it will fuel a bit of growth through additional spending and investing and balance things up a bit more. It certainly offsets the decreased cashflows incurred by all following the last interest rate increase.
By the way, I was born and bred in Sydney.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI am very impressed with the Budget.It wasn’t a bad effort, but the Libs have a once in a generation opportunity to actually fix a few things, now that they have control of the Senate and big pile of cash.
I hate to quote (because I know how it annoys you so) but this about sums it up:
It would have done us more good had we seen fundamental tax reform that lowered the top tax rate and paid for it by cutting out loopholes, so more energy goes into productive work and less into working out how to rort the tax system.At some point, a future Treasurer will have to tackle this. We now have a tax system that creates instability by requiring taxpayers to subsidise the losses of negatively geared speculators, while successful speculators pay only half the tax on their winnings that everyone else pays on their earnings from work. This has already profoundly changed Australia for the worse, and next time the boom-bust cycle it invites could end in recession. Anyone who thinks these tax breaks are better than lower tax rates
needs their economic head read.Doubtless you will disagree with everything Colebatch has to say.
I don’t follow any of your links any more. They are always the same negative trash.
I am sure I do disagree with it though.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI don’t follow any of your links any more. They are always the same negative trash. I am sure I do disagree with it though.Hmmm … who is it who has the closed mind again?
Do you have any criticisms of the budget, or is it all good?
This is interesting tid bit about where all the money is coming from:
A large part of the source of all this Howard happiness is the tax reform of 1999-2000 – not the GST but the pay-as-you-go system for businesses, and the way it links to the GST to make avoidance very difficult. No matter what you might hear about tax avoidance being rampant among rich people, the new tax system is actually hoovering money out of business tills more efficiently than anywhere in the world.Total government receipts were $156.6 billion in 2000-01, and they are budgeted to be $214.2 million in 2005-06 – a 36 per cent increase in five years. Over the same period the increase in the consumer price index has been less than 15 per cent.
That $57.8 billion per annum increase in revenue, net of tax cuts along the way, has been nearly all spent by John Howard.
Just a little note about a comment in the original post i.e.that tax cuts are likely to put upward pressure on interest rates.
I’m currently highly geared and paying around 6.7%pa interest. I do my calculations on a scenario of 9% i.e. only deals that I could still comfortably service at 9%.
I’m interested in others views ie what percent chance do you think there is of standard domestic Australian mortgage interest rates exceeding 9%pa?
Cheers
I’m interested in others views ie what percent chance do you think there is of standard domestic Australian mortgage interest rates exceeding 9%pa?Bugger all. The consensus seems to be that the budget is mildly expansionary but nothing like what would be needed to push bank rates to 9%.
Mind you, there are other (non-budget) things that could push up inflation and cause the RBA to act. e.g. a large depreciation in the Australian dollar.
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