Courier Mail: House prices slump
http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,15202771%255E952,00.html
“HOUSE prices in Brisbane have suffered their biggest quarterly drop in median values in 10 years”The party’s over
http://smh.com.au/news/Business/The-partys-over/2005/05/06/1115092685035.html
ABN Amro’s resident bear, Gerard Minack, meanwhile, believes we are watching the beginning of a slow-motion train crash …. “The first carriage that hits the wall is retail and residential construction. Arguably, next will be media and domestic industrials. The final carriage – and it is a big carriage – is the financials.”I went the three auctions this morning. No-one bid at any of them. I can’t recall anyone bidding at an auction for at least 6 months.
GRRRROWWWLLLL!
the bear is awkeningWhy are you so negative all the time?
Matt R (Gold Coast)
Because nearly everyone else is!
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserWhy are you so negative all the time?Actually, I think a downturn in property (and the economy in general) is the best thing that can happen to Australia. Booms always bust, and the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. If the economy were to continue like it has for the next 12 months (i.e. a credit-fuelled bubble) the bust would be much more severe. A bust would also mean a fall in the AUD and (hopefully) rescue our exporters befores its too late.
Because nearly everyone else is!As I said in the other thread, the economic consensus at the moment is the economy is slowing and the most likely outcome is a so-called “soft landing”. As you know, my view is considerably more bearish, and would probably be considered extreme by most people.
Hey dmichie,
I hope you don’t mind being asked, but what do you do for a living? Are you qualified in economics or work in a related field.
Don’t worry if you don’t because I don’t. I am just interested in knowing your background.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserThanks for the links, dmichie- i always like to keep up on those kinds of figures.
It is good news for first home buyers though- perhaps now they can afford to get their own home! But for investors.. well, I guess many can take a few $$$ off their net worth.
kay henry
Hey Matt, you must be one of the few 19 year olds cheering on the housing market. Most young people I know would like nothing more than for housing prices to come back to earth.
I hope you don’t mind being asked, but what do you do for a living?Self-employed software developer, 95% of sales overseas, 70% in the U.S. (Yes, I have more than a passing interest in seeing a lower AUD)
And things become much clearer. Obviously your opinions are biased and your comments are either a conscious or sub-conscious attempt at getting the dollar to come down. That must be the furthest from impartial commentary I have ever seen.
What software do you develop? I may be interested as I do a lot with computers.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserMate, if I have a biased opinion because I want to see a lower AUD (something only vaguely related to property) can you find it within yourself to admit you have more than a passing interest in seeing the property boom continue?
Email me at:
sydneyhousehunter (at no spam) hotmail.comhee- it’s funny how you both insult each other and then want to do business together! The mind boggles! [blink]
kay henry
I don’t consider it insulting each other. I consider it heated debate. I rather enjoy it. I have no problem doing business with anyone who has an opposing view to mine. We would get nowhere if everyone thought the same way.
Regarding my passing interest in seeing the property boom continue, it is non-existent. I really don’t care personally what happens with property as I am getting out of property and you know I am getting out of mortgage broking and restricting myself to advising. The boom you mentioned also finished a while ago.
I just don’t believe anything is going to burst and do not share such a negative economic opinion as you do.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI’m not insulted either … this is much more entertaining than a bearish forum like HousePriceCrash (www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showforum=22)
I just don’t believe anything is going to burstSo you are believer in the “soft landing” then? I assume you don’t believe the current economic expansion will continue forever, or that markets just go up forver in a nice straight line. There has to be a correction one day, and as I’ve pointed out this is already the longest post-war expansion.
Of course I do not believe things go up forever in an economy. There are way too many variables and external influences. I blame this on how people vote. Whenever the Government does something that is not totally favourable, everyone votes for the other guy. It may be a much needed change but the general public respond on an extremely micro-economic level.
Imagine if a large corporation had this problem??? If Australia was run like a corporation without so many changes in Government, we may see continued growth. Many companies make a profit year in and year out without ever going backwards. The amount of profit they make may vary with various conditions but excellent management always sees them in the black. There is no reason why this cannot happen within a country.
dmichie, is your name David from the North Shore?
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI suppose if people just voted for Howard over and over things would be ok? Even the most die-hard conservatives would admit Howard has lost his way on economic reform. He ran out of ideas after the GST, and its time for the likes Costello and Turnbull to take over.
Democracy is the best system we have. It gives the people a chance to kick out the manangement when they screw up.
BTW, corporate profits follow the business cycle as well.
Originally posted by The Mortgage Adviser:dmichie, is your name David from the North Shore?
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserRobert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage Adviserdmichie, is your name David from the North Shore?Nice try, but no. If you want to contact me, email the address I posted above.
I think you are telling a fib David. You are looking for a house with four bedrooms on the North Shore are you not?
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserI’m not looking on the north shore no. Why the fascination with who I am, what I do, and what I’m looking for?
As I said, contact me at the address I posted and we’ll continue the conversation there.
Sorry mate. No can do. Does CRACKER mean anything to you? Either you are telling fibs here or elsewhere David.
http://cracker.com.au/viewthread.aspx?threadid=47542&categoryid=11061
I am happy to deal with anyone that I believe is straight up.
In any case, I only wanted to know what software you were involved with in case it interested me.
Have a nice night.
Robert Bou-Hamdan
Mortgage AdviserNot wanting to be too pedantic, but “north shore” and “northern beaches” are two completely different places.
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