Hi all,
Just read this article in the SMH that I thought might interest…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Property/Property-bubble-deflates-further/2004/12/01/1101577555296.html
Some key points from the article:
“Hopes that the housing downturn is a blip that will soon correct itself were dampened yesterday, as a Westpac Bank economist predicted that prices would not return to an annual growth rate of 10 per cent a year until 2008.
While owner-occupiers and first-home buyers would be important to the market next year, residential property would not be attractive to investors for up to five years, Bill Evans told a Real Estate Institute of NSW briefing.”
And…
“The biggest falls were in suburbs 10 to 20 kilometres from the city, Mr Kelly said. The median house price in that area fell 7.32 per cent”
Just thought you might like to read this.
Cheers,
Michael.Hi Michael,
Yes but where are the opportunities in this mate??. Don’t become a doom and gloom person like Neil Jenman, and others (80% of what he does i admire), i can promise/guarantee you and all those sceptics out there that money is made in all types of property deals wether the market is rising of falling.
In America they call this the Chicken Little Principle (find out 4 your self). Pick up a news paper written in 1950/1960/1970/1980/1990/2000 they make profits from bad news. I wish i bought more property in 1990!!!!!
A friend of mine owns 3 caravan sites, 100% occupancy and is killing it. We are investing in small strata storage and document investments. Queensland land is appreciating the fastest in Australia, do a development. Perth is growing at 9% and the prices are affordable.
In 1991 i was paying 19.33% interest, and today i can get a loan under 10%, yahoo!!!!!
I’m knocking my house over in Hunters Hill in Sydney and building a new one, because the time is right.
So Michael what are you doing to make money, look out side the square mate. Have you ever noticed that when the markets change the little people panic while the big people flourish.
Lang Walker is making record profits, Harry Trig. is upping his building rate, David Marriner is spending 1.3 billion at Laguna in the Whitsundays.
I believe that the market is going to fall a lot more and i can’t wait. It’s xmas and people are going to max out on credit cards then feel the pinch in feb 2005 (fools). we already have a 27 billion dollar credit card problem in Australia, why – because of the lack of financial fundermentals.
Read books on how to make money, not news papers, they are written by journos who don’t have two bob in their pockets.
Good luck Michael, lurn from this positive forum and prosper mate!!! … Phil oh and by the way i suggest you don’t wait till 2008 – it could cost you big time!! how old will you be then ???
Phil,
I’m certainly with you on this. Just threw the post in for info…
I personally am getting all my ducks in a row and waiting eagerly for the market to start turning up the sorts of opportunities I’m looking for. I’m certainly not going to sit on my hands for 3 years. But as a relative newbie, I’m not going to jump before I’m ready either. I’m certainly not panicking, the more articles like this I read the better I feel [biggrin].
Good to know that QLD land is appreciating so quickly, I’ve got 40 acres at Bundaberg so it doesn’t sound like too bad a position to be in.
Hope my first post didn’t come across all negative, it was just a FYI for the forumites.
Cheers,
Michael.Exactly. A down market will sort out the true investors from the people who just (luckily) caught a rising market.
Personally, my own prediction for the Sydney market (missed out on the Sydney market this time around, though I bought a few places in Brisbane between 2000 and 2003):
2004-2005: the market stays flat. Interest rates go up slightly. Nothing much happens in the market.
2006-2007: people start realising that those expensive properties they bought at the peak of the market (and are losing 3-4% a year on because they ignored rental yields) are not going to appreciate anytime soon. Interest rates will go up and people panic and sell.
That’s when people who have been preparing for it pounce. I only need 2 or 3 good house deals a year to get set for the next boom. So in 2006 – 2007 I buy maybe 5-6 houses ($300k each, say) and when the boom comes in 2008 I just sit back and get rich!
When have Westpac’s economists ever got it right?
Terryw
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Hey Terry …
The deffination of an economist is some one who reads the past, not the future … PhilI think we need to start applying (or trying to anyway) Warren Buffett’s investing methods to property.
Who cares what the economy is doing??? Whether we’re in a boom or a recession, there is still money out there to be made – it is the intelligent investor that wins – alexlee – I totally agree with you on that.
Buffett buys shares in companies because he is happy with their past, their potential and the people that are running them. He is impressed by that individual company, with little regard for the economy in which they are operating.
I believe the same system could be utilised for property – the overall state of the economy is not necessarily any indication of the potential success of an individual property investment.
I know a lot of people have said this before me but, the best investments aren’t bought, they are made.
Age doesn’t negate effort – you can never be too young or too old.
It is never a time for doom and gloom because there is always money to be made. I have noticed that for the last 20yrs at least, property and the sharemarket have moved in opposing cycles. Look at the poor sharemarket performance during the recent (last 3-4 years) property rise.
At the moment the property market seems to be easing and the sharemarket is rising. The resources sector is really helping to push the market up and is expected to do so until approx 2008 when it will ease. By my theory (and is only a layman’s opinion) the housing market will continue to drop until then (2008) and for a year or two more until the sharemarket is dropping, not just easing, and property will then commence to rise again.
If you like the thought of a balanced portfolio, now would be a good time to invest in bluechip resource shares and gold for the next 3-4 years and make a lot more money than what a bank can offer until the next real buying opportunities arise. Not saying there aren’t property opps at the moment, just scarcer!!
Lisa[cap]
Lisa Osmotherly
Originally posted by MichaelWhyte:Hi all,
Just read this article in the SMH that I thought might interest…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Property/Property-bubble-deflates-further/2004/12/01/1101577555296.html
Some key points from the article:
“Hopes that the housing downturn is a blip that will soon correct itself were dampened yesterday, as a Westpac Bank economist predicted that prices would not return to an annual growth rate of 10 per cent a year until 2008.
While owner-occupiers and first-home buyers would be important to the market next year, residential property would not be attractive to investors for up to five years, Bill Evans told a Real Estate Institute of NSW briefing.”
And…
“The biggest falls were in suburbs 10 to 20 kilometres from the city, Mr Kelly said. The median house price in that area fell 7.32 per cent”
Just thought you might like to read this.
Cheers,
Michael.
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