Whats Really Happenning ???

westan – heres the thing, no one really knows. big press over here talking abt how the realestate sales figures differ enormously between the abs, reiv, and various other organisations.

last month one had melbourne prices down 13 pct, another had them down 3 pct and another down .5 pct.

as you know its virtually impossible to find anyone without a vested interest in realestate.

for exampl the banks keep telling us there is nothing wrong with the market and it will continue to do ok – sure and there share price depends on it. then you have the reserve bank telling us the opposite, wch might be smoke and mirrors just to pur a curb on spending/credit…

what i know is this. if you look hard enuf for a bargain you will find 20 pct discounts on what the market was 6 months ago. you need to go to alot of auctions, put in lots of offers and they will turn up.

the prices have dropped but they arnt obvious as yet..

but then again the house next door sold 15k above its reserve…so it all depends..

In the market area I have been watching I’ve seen the prices fall. Some have been minor adjustments, others have come down up to 20% from their asking prices. Granted some of these were overpriced to start with.

I’d like to comment on the media hype thing. In my mind it’s the media hype that kept this boom going for the last 18months. Without the media we would have levelled off earlier, or at least not had such a big spurt recently.

I think it is fair to say that if the media were able to drag prices up above what true value really is, then the media is able to drag them down again. To think otherwise would be very niave in my opinion.

The media is as much a shaper of this recent boom and possible bust as interest rates are. The only time I’ll believe that this market has hit bottom is when I start seeing the prices rise again. The start of the upturn is the time I’ll be jumping in again.

I sold a 2 bed unit last week and achieved a price I would have expected 6 months ago. It was in surburban Melbourne.

As for the higher priced properties in the area – I believe they have come down a bit (5-10%).

Hi

We have a place on the market at Blairgowrie (Mornington Peninsula) near Melbourne… having done our research, wife and I thought 340k would be great, but 320k would be fine too… agent put it on at 365k, no bites, came back to 340k, no bites, now down to 320k+, hopefully some bites this weekend. Mind you, winter’s probably not the best time of year to be selling a place near the beach in Vic… ah well.

We wanted to sell it to cash in some great CG and clear PPOR debt so we could crank up again in a year or two.

The agent’s authority runs out on July 5, so he’ll be trying to screw us down on price, but we won’t be doing that… Instead, we’ll be renting it out full time, having used it as a holiday house/holiday rental for 3 years. The rent we’re likely to get will be around 7% on purchase price. We might revisit selling again in a few years.

I would think that some of the stories about people who bought 6-9 months ago now finding themselves with negative equity are very true. Think about it, places that were getting 350k 9 months ago are now selling for 315k… especially down at Blairgowrie (which is the market I’m clearly interested in)… that’s a 10% drop. Fortunately we bought over 3 years ago in which time the property has doubled…

We’ll be able to hang on quite comfortably, a lot however, cannot.

Cheers
r

ps Yack + Monopoly, what are your thoughts on the Mitcham Frankston Freeway and it’s likely impact on prices down the Peninsula/Frankston neck of the woods?

<<<<ps Yack + Monopoly, what are your thoughts on the Mitcham Frankston Freeway and it’s likely impact on prices down the Peninsula/Frankston neck of the woods?>>>>

I reckon it will have a positive effect. I grew up with the Sam Newman attitude that Frankston was a dump and you can imagine my thoughts when my parents decided to relocate while I was at Uni.

I like frankston very much now. With all the infrastructure going on and its proximity to the beach and peninsula it will become increasingly popular. Frankston could become a city on its own if its not one already. Retirees on he peninsula will come to Frankston for shopping, entertainment and other services eg Health/Hsopital.

With the train already there (its been there before I was born) and with the improved access to the Eastern Surburbs prices should keep going up.

I prefer Frankston to Cranbourne or Dandenong. The beach/bay aspect does it for me. Its close to Mt Eliza so you have the good schools too. Its even got a Monash University campus. I still think the beach aspect of Frankston still has much to be done eg. Marina and I believe one day it will be like the St Kilda of the peninsula ie. people from all parts of Melbourne will go there for a day drive.

I dont think prices have fallen in Franskton at the moment, well not in Sth Frankston anyway. And there is not that much on the market.

So with improved road infrastructure I believe frankston and the peninsula will only attract more interest.

The only downside is that the Peninsula may become an outer surburb of Melbourne and not have that holiday feel so much. Some people may start to commute from the peninsula if they dont already. My brother was living in Rosebud and driving to Boronia – so its possible. Its the same time from Mentone to city by car. The new road will only improve the time from Rosebud to Boronia.

Anyway – their my thoughts.

Sydney definitley has dropped down, but its probably more that in a bull run ppl pay TOO MUCH knowing that in a month maybe three the market will catch them up.

Reckon thats 10% of it, and the real drop is probaly another 5% though its patchy and depends where.

Not talking units here just houses

Monopoly,
congrats on your arrival… fourth…. sounds like a beauty, how do you do it (I mean debt free), awsome….[thumbsupanim]