interesting main article in this weeks BRW on property. dont read it if you are a bull. very similar things to say as the ECONOMIST earlier this year…
basically saying there will be a soft landing but infact in real terms property prices set to fall 20-30 pct over the next 10 years
I have not read the article but it does not surprise me.
I read the other day that the average home is now 9 times average salaries whereas the norm is around 6 times average salaries.
The only way prices will stay where they are is if salaries increase and there are no interest rate rises.
I believe over time prices will fall as interest rates rise and prices will increase as salaries increase. But normally the market price for an average property is 6 times the average income so over the next 5-10 yrs prices do have to kool a little.
I also recall back in 1997 when I bought my first property – how unfashionable property was and how there was no price increases in the previous few years.
Yack, I think your figures are conservative. I believe the national average salary is about $47k whereas the mdeian house is about $530k or more. That’s an even bigger multiple which I believe is a strong indicator of an over inflated market.
baloo – salary sounds right but not the median house price..
you must be from the eastern suburbs
hmmm. I guess we need a couple of different figures.
Avg Syd Salary v Avg Syd Median
Avg Aus Salary v Avg Aus Median
Avg <city> v Avg <city> MedianI know the Sydney median house price reached $500k in February this year as reported here http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/22/1077384624408.html
ive said it b4 and ill say it again…
i dont know how you sydneysiders do it!!!
come down south and visit the worlds most liveable city and release that pressure valve!!
Originally posted by aussierogue:ive said it b4 and ill say it again…
i dont know how you sydneysiders do it!!!
come down south and visit the worlds most liveable city and release that pressure valve!!
….or, if you want to be able to drive from one side of the city to the other in less than 3 days, try Perth.
Re: BRW article, I initially thought we’d see a 2-3 year decline. But my view is changing to favour the 10 years sideways but 20-30% down in real terms scenario… just like the ’70’s
wayne – i hear perth is gonna be a ghost town in a few years when the water runs out.
good time for you to buy the exclusive rights to distribute ‘evian’ in perth…
(were jealous we lost my restrnnt rules)
(is it still open by the way??)AussieR, I’m a born and bred Melbournite who’s been sentanced to hard labour in Sydney for me sins.
It is really hard looking at the Melb prices right now as we’re looking to buy a PPOR at some point soon. I wonder if I can convince work to relocate the dept to Melb….
I also read the BRW today and I think it is essential reading for any investor. Aussie Rogue did well by mentioning it, I reckon these guys have the future of the market pretty well picked.
Originally posted by aussierogue:wayne – i hear perth is gonna be a ghost town in a few years when the water runs out.
good time for you to buy the exclusive rights to distribute ‘evian’ in perth…
(were jealous we lost my restrnnt rules)
(is it still open by the way??)Hahaha, when I left Melbourne there was not a lot of water in the dams; we could both be in the same boat.
Although…a little birdy told me that there is enough artesian water underneath us to last 1200 years! Just a tad more expensive to pump it up.
Just my opinion: Perthites have little city syndrome. They want to be just like Melbourne and Sydney when they grow up, but they don’t realise that what they have is far better. So if the water thing scares a few people off, good!!!![cap]
Re restaurant: I think they will find the going a little tougher from now on[evil4]
Cheers
HAH!!
Speaking of water shortages; in todays news:
Cities to be stuck with water bans
By Steve Lewis, Michael Bachelard and Samantha Maiden
June 25, 2004
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9945875%255E421,00.htmlHi Guys interesting discussion on water. I read an article recently here in NZ and it mentioned that NZ’s inferior economic status to Australia could be reversed in the comming years, as OZ struggles with the lack of supply. Thats one thing they have plent of over here – Water. Its actually nice to see green paddocks everywhere, especially after seeing what was happening to the land where i was living in Australia. All the talk about Draughts was very depressing and i wasn’t even a farmer. No doubt about it access to clean water will be a big thing this century.
regards westan
wayne – is that the same water anaconda claimed they discovered!! only to be told by the govt theyve known its been there all the time…
havent heard much abt that recently….
on new zealand
yep new zealand has heaps going for it. alot of asians see new zealans as a safe place to live. aparently there is a huge south korean population. they have moved there scared of the threat posed by nth korea. the world is a changing. we are gonna see more and more people making decisions based on security and safety.
stock picks for the new millenium
a) security firms
b) water firmswheres MAD MAX when you need him
Hi Guys
i agree aussie. Perhaps Metal storm is worth a buy (oops a share comments), sorry it slipped out. Back to water, wayneL i thought there were concerns in Perth that there under ground water storages could become salinified (i mean salty).
Aussie your comments about world security, there are lots of people from the northern Hemishere moving to NZ, especially from the UK. Serurity is the big reason. we are also seeing the arrival of a number of farmers from the UK who are sick of Mad cow etc destroying there business.
Dolf De Roos may have been spot on when he remarked the biggest thing going against NZ for the past 200 years has been its remoteness to the rest of the world, the biggest thing going for NZ for the next 200 years is its remoteness to the rest of the world.
westan
Aussie,
A lot of Perths water already comes from underground. There are two large underground water “mountains” where it is drawn from. (the Gnangara and Jandakot Mounds).
There is heaps of water there, but if depleted enough, ocean water will seap into the areas, hence the worry of salinity.
There is a deeper source of so called “fossil water” in an artesian basin that stretches from Bunbury to Geraldton that can never become salty.
I have a paper on the issue, but here is the govt. blurb for those interested:
http://www.watercorporation.com.au/owf/owf_options_groundwater.cfm
Westan,
Interesting comments about NZ. I’ve never been there, but aside from the water/safety issue, the Kiwi’s seem to have there act together.
Every time I turn something over to see where it’s made, it is more and more often NZ…and keeping out of other nations affairs has always been a smart move.
seems for every doomsday article there is a sunny sky one – who knows what to believe? I read not long ago that affordability was at all time highs! is a pity the BRW article is for subscribers only. I too remember those mid nineties when property did nothing – if only I had bought more!!
Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.John – 0419 198 856
and then seconds later I read….
“Prices have levelled says Treasurer (Your Mortgage Magazine, 24/6/04). According to Australian Federal Treasurer, Peter Costello, house prices have flattened and he expects
little price movement for some time to come. Indicators, however, suggest that the property market is strong enough to bounce back within a few years”Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.
John – 0419 198 856
Originally posted by AusProp:and then seconds later I read….
“Prices have levelled says Treasurer (Your Mortgage Magazine, 24/6/04).
that the property market is strong enough to bounce back within a few years”
Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.
John – 0419 198 856
And what happens to the magazine sales if the market dies, by not going up or just staying flat.
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