From Jenman. I agree, thats why I have not touched anything outside Melbourne.
http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsNews1.php?id=259
I also notice in some posts that the older positive cashflow investors in Mcknight and Westan have sold some rural properties.
What are you guys doing? Comments please.
Yack,
Not everything beyond Melbourne’s city limits is “the sticks”… Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Shepparton etc are just 4 places in Vic that are established regional cities… but we’ve had this discussion before.
Cheers
rYes we have and I maybe agree with you, but I am more getting at the areas outside the regional areas. The article i suppose is referring to those. Its like a pyramid scheme. The last ones holding the properties may loose and end up selling to the locals. Time will tell. All I am getting at is be CAUTIOUS.
re: be cautious, couldn’t agree more
Hi YAck,
We discussd this earlier on another thread….
Couldn’t agree with you more.
Just waithng for the cycle to turn and the fallout to come.
The wave has hit the regionals, now we’re just waiting for the backwash….KP
Hi Yack
yes i’m selling properties in Regional Vicoria and i would sell some in melbourne also (if i owned any there), the reason is to reinvest in NZ.
Anyway lets see what Neil Jennman has to say this time (here we ago again). Once again Mr Jenman shoots his mouth off with the very little information he has.
Lets critique his article
Firstly he states country towns do not have the infrastructures of the cities. Sure, prices may be lower, but so is employment, I grew up in Fairfield an inner Melbourne Suburb but i’ve also recently lived in the country towns of Echuca and Stawell. Sure these towns don’t have International Aiports but Come on MR Jennman what infrastucture are they really missing, we actually have Hospitals, Schools for our children, Police and even ambulances. Echuca even has McDonalds is that the superior infrastructure you are talking about. No Mr Jennman, regional and country towns actually don’t do too badly. In actual fact some people like it that their kids can ride their bikes on the roads without becoming road kill.Mr Jenman you say Across Australia (and New Zealand) country property prices have reached unprecedented heights in the past two or three years., yes that is correct but is that wrong that in a society were prices are rising and the dollars purchasing power lessens shouldn’t property be worth more now that 10 years ago, I see no problem with prices being higher today. Mr Jenman you need also to look at what has been happening in country and regional areas sure prices have risen a lot in the past 3 years but what about the past 10 years you will find that they have probably had an average growth rate of about 5-8% PA. A lot of the recent gains have been playing catch up to their big city cousins.
take the Queensland town of Stanthorpe where prices have risen almost 20 per cent in the past three months. If it keeps going, that’s an annual growth rate of 80 per cent., Gee Teltra share went up about 10% in the past month thats an annualized growth of 120%, can you see how stupid that argument is.
Go live there by all means (if you can find a job) Neil i don’t know what decade you were in the bush but it sure isn’t recently there are many employment options , but perhaps not for people who write stupid acticles that steriotype country towns as backward and lacking opportunities.
Neil look into the facts a little more, sometime local (both city and country) are not always the most switched on people, they often miss opportunities right in front of them. Sometimes your life experience needs to be a bit broader to see opportunities.
Sadly Mr Jenman it appears that you look at the world from quite a different perspective than the way i encourage my young children to look at things. Rather that trying to find the negatives sometimes its good to balance it with, is there some opportunities as well.
Mr Jenman i can assure you there are great opportunities, some people will make Millions from Investing in Regional and country areas in the next 12 months.
but just be careful investing in the bush., i actually agree but you’d better be even more careful investing in the city.
Finally mr Jenman don’t judge the whole of regional Austrlia on one weekend in a small town in Queensland.
westan
since when has jenman been an oracle on ‘the market!’.
he should stick to what he does best and thats keeping realestae agents honest…
why would we put any credence in what ‘one’ realestate agent has to say?? next thing hell be telling us how to make pumpkin risotto!!
my 2 cents is that yes the bush is more expensive but its coming from a low base. people are downsizingn to access captial, looking for a seachange etc etc so there are logical reasons the bush properties are in demand.
who know the whole realestae market cld be overcooked so when interest rates hit 10 pct all prices will drop considerably
Oh well – Time will tell. As always just be cautious. Thats all I am saying. At some time in the future people will assess whether investing in those towns is worth all the effort.
As for Jenman, sure he has his own barrow to push. But I believe some people will regret investing in these smaller rural towns.
I remember a time in the early 90s’ when RE agents in my area were changing the way they marketed and sold real estate.
It was called the Jenman way….when did he change sides ???KP
I think in the pursuit of cash pozz investments, and in the event of the RE boom, people have had to go to smaller and smaller towns to find cheaper properties- that’s obvious. I think there is a real danger of some of these places becoming “ghost towns”. If you invest in a few properties in a town of 500 people, and (for whatever reason), people up and leave… then you’re in massive trouble.
Regionals are not country towns. Albury is not howlong or tarcutta. I guess one rule is that the cheaper you buy, the more risk there is. And some have taken that risk. People on this board are often saying what fabulous risk-takers they are anyway- noone should worry
kay henry
Hi all
sorry about this everyone but i now need to correct Mr ECCENTRIC, my apologies if you are bored by this debate.
I think you need to differentiate between what people classify as a country town. Rural areas, according to most lenders, are areas with a population below 15,000 permanent residents. The places you mentioned are certainly not in this category.<edited> Stawell’s population is 7000 and echuca’s is 10,000 if you add Moama that’s another 4000. And anyway Jenman doesn’t mention size of Towns.
Catch up??? This is like comparing apples and oranges. Look at what the Valuer General values the land at. RURAL properties are nothing like city properties and certainly should not experience growth anywhere near the levels of the city properties (which are coming down now).Yes thats what i said 5-8% per annum is below city growth rates. By the way i have the book. I didn’t say they were higher than City growth rates <edited>.
Apples and oranges mate!!! Telstra made some interesting business moves. What happened in the country town to attract investors? Did a cow get pushed over?<edited>A lot of city people are actually moving to the country. Why don’t you go to some towns in the category you mentioned under 15,000 and see whats happening, start with the 2 i mentioned Echuca and Stawell. Then come back and continue this discussion. <edited>
He never implied this at all!!! Look in the paper mate. There are vacanies in heaps of RURAL towns. We are not talking satellite cities or regional centres.Hey he never implied it , What??? i quoted him. How can you say he never implied it when i cut and pasted his article. MR ECCENTRIC , it is obvious that you haven’t even read what he has said.
<edited>
Please give me the Curtisy of reading the article before you comment it would save me and others a lot of time. Feel free to challenge my comments but at least read what we are talking about it will lead to a far more fruitful and vibrant discussion. OK.
And Mr Eccentric once again you are wrong about Jobs lets use the critieria you mentioned under 15000 population and the towns i mentioned . There are heaps of work opportunities in these towns, as i said go upgrade your knowledge by having a look.
If there are heaps of vacancies in these rural towns then obviuosly don’t buy in those ones (i’ve no idea which ones you are talking about), The towns where i own and have owned over the past 7 years had vacancy rates of about 2% they were Stawell (pop 7000), Horsham (pop 12,000), Ararat (pop 8000), Hamilton (pop10,000), Millicent (pop 5,000) Shepparton (pop 40,000), Morwell (pop 15,000), Leongatha (pop 4,500), so not this high Vacancy rates you mentioned. The key is to buy where there is rental demand – i thought that was a given.
There are opportunities everywhere. They are certainly not as good as you make out. If these areas are so good, why would you not keep what you have AND buy in NZ?Because i know what you obviously don’t.
You obviously don’t know the cities very well!!! Kind of sounds a little hypocritical don’t you think???I know that if your property drops by 10% it hurts alot more if it is worth $500,000 rather than $75,000 Now do you understand. Just for the record I think i know melbourne very well i’ve lived in melbourne longer than anywhere else.
I’m not saying go out and buy in woop woop, all i’m saying is don’t be put off by negative ill informed comments, by people who don’t know what they are talking about. (not attacking you this time mr eccentric). And i’m not saying “buy every thing you see outside Melbourne and Sydney”. But i now there are still good buys for those you do the homework and invest time and effort.
regards westan
westan :o)
I tend to think Neil Jenman was actually speaking of woop woop places. Personally, I like woop woop places- for holidays, and peaceful retreats… but not as an investment (eg, the 500 population places I mentioned).
It doesn’t matter- to me- if an article is written by Neil, or Steve, or Jan- it’s the ideas I am interested in- not the author. Personally, I found that the article had merit. westan, I think the towns you have invested in are bigger than the ones I would think of when I read the article. I would aos think of investing in very small seachange towns- not a lot of coast left, so I wouldn’t care how big the population was, or about employment, or industry (hopefully, there wouldn’t be a mine by the sea [thumbsdownanim
I reckon where Neil went to visit was probably a town of only a couple of hundred- if that- no RE office etc- it has to be small.
kay henry
Go easy folks… share your toys and play like friends in the sandpit.
Personally, I’ve never advocated buying in rural hamlets. I advocate investing in areas with expanding infrastructure.
Still, nowdays I have changed my approach again to something that is neither location nor price specific. Actually, outlining this approach is exactly where I’m up to in writing my 2nd book.
Bye,
Steve McKnight
**********
Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
**********Steve McKnight | PropertyInvesting.com Pty Ltd | CEO
https://www.propertyinvesting.comSuccess comes from doing things differently
Originally posted by kay henry:I reckon where Neil went to visit was probably a town of only a couple of hundred- if that- no RE office etc- it has to be small.
I’d say so. I used to live in a NZ country town of about 3,000 and they have at least two or three RE agencies (I was there a few months ago and had a look in the windows).
GP
ive invested in a coastel hamlet that has a population of 450 people. it also has 5 realestate agents – figure that one out!!
aussierogue,
The RE agencies are in your town because it’s coastal, and that in itself sets up demand, and contains a RE fundamental (sea). Some places are *tiny* but hugely expensive- untouched, not overly developed, and will be a good investment. A rural town of 450 people is gonna struggle much more as an investment.
kay henry
full marks kay!
yeh the summer population is 5,000…
maybe some of these rural towns should build a wave riding swimming pool. i think im onto something….
Yeah Aussie. Those pools look pretty cool!! [biggrin]
Cheers
MelWestan
I agree with Jenman and in fact I think that even regional towns of 20000 pop. may have problems in the next 5 years if rates rise and econ. growth slows. I think this will actually affect NZ regional and small towns even more than Aus.You are entitled to your opinion on Jenman but I support what he says 100% in that article at least. I say this in the hope that people will see that there is support for what he is saying not just blatant attacks against him like yours.
Nothing in the world of investing is guaranteed but capital cities in Aus are a whole lot safer than regional towns in Aus or NZ, IMHO!
Hi all
great to see this post was reopened.
Steve if you need someone to help proof read you next book i’m more than happy.[biggrin]
i like getting in on the ground level.
Seriously, all the best with the inspiration on writing it. As far as going easy in the sandpit sorry if our discussion was a bit robust. I enjoy a good debate, and the handfull of sand in the eyes helps me grab all the toys.
regards westan
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