hi guys,
Take a look at this graph please http://www.propertytalk.co.nz/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=76
Surely this lead you to think the market in NZ must crash soon???
Am interested in your REALISTIC opinions which of course will be non bias
cheers,
James.Hi james
firstly every thing you read has a bias. It is near impossible to not be.
Anyway lets look at your question.
Firstly i can’t see how on earth you ask the question will NZ property burst from that graph ????Secondly yes NZ has had a great year with property rises 22% on the year till March the best in the world apparently.
However these are on the back of doing nothing for the past 5 years (don’t have my figure with me) Look at the Australian market prices have been rising buy 20% for the past 4 year each year (just an educated guesstamate). I believe australia is up 113% on the past 7 year.
Living in NZ i can’t see the market busting here, we are still in the rising stages of a boom and we have not seen the property hyseria that Oz has seen. Yeilds are still a health 6-10% in most cities so it still looks attractive.
So my thoughs are the NZ property market will keep going up (maybe not across the board).
As i started with it is near impossible to be unbiased, i’m still selling in Australia and buying in NZ settle on 2 properties tomorrow.hope this helps
regards westanwell as far as I can see it’s still got 5 percent to recover to the 1987 levels, which is not too much to ask, considering NZ is supposed to be in a boom…
cheers-
Minijoy to the world
For my comments on this topic see my article ‘Property Crash Lacks Evidence’ re NZ in thread https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/10972.html
“Make sure you can survive the downside, and the upside will take care of itself!” Donald Trump
The research we have conducted indicates many “locations” in New Zealand are between 30-50 percent of their true value – comparative to overseas markets, accounting for supply and demand, etc.
Markets such as Auckland will continue to plateau in the short-term due to over-supply in specific segments – this does not translate to a downturn in the Auckland region as a whole.
As for a “crash” there is no indication a severe market downturn is on the horizon in any location in New Zealand.
Historically New Zealand has closely followed trends in Australia because it was a market confined to domestic and trans-Tasman investment.
The extent of foreign investment and “awareness” in the past 2-3 years is changing this trend and positioning New Zealand as an independent and far more viable investment location/market than Australia – which will continue.
Regarding the graph referenced in this post. Putting aside the two factors noted above [foreign investment, awareness] which have had a very positive impact on the New Zealand real estate market since 2001/2002, this graph indicates capital growth will continue to impact the market for at least another 2-3 years.
— Michael
well i hope you are all correct as you are clearly supporting NZ.
the graph makes me suspicious as it looks remarkedly similar to trends i have seen in the stock market and when prices spike like this they inevitably are followed by a “correction”. only time will tell and as usual i will just make sure i have a buffer to ride me through any downturn.
so its business as usual, time to find a place in NZ
Stock market trends should not be associated with the real estate market.
The stock market is very liquid and is traded in a completely different manner to real estate – RE takes time to buy and sell [trade] and therefore typically results in longer cycles.
As an example, it is common for a stock [or equity market, i.e. NASDAQ, DJ, etc] to rise significantly in one day’s trading, sell down as quickly the following day, and rise again on the third. At times this trend occurs over a few hours. This same trend [cycle] can take months, or even years, in the property market.
“i will just make sure i have a buffer to ride me through any downturn”
— contingencies such as a “buffer” and/or “exit strategy” are the key to being a successful real estate investor.
— Michael
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