If you think oil prices are high at $40 a barrel then wait till they are
four times that much.
How will you pay to run your car? How will you get the children to
school? How will you heat your house? How much will transported food go up in price?
How will we pay for plastics, metals, rubber, cheap flights, Simpson’s
DVDs, 3G phones and everlasting economic growth?The basic answer is, we won’t.
This is the message from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
(ASSPO). The group of oil executives, geologists, investment bankers, academics
and others has been warning the world of high oil prices, and the ensuing fallout, for
some years now.The end of cheap oil
It includes a diverse range of oil industry insiders.
People like Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at Iran’s National
Oil Company (NOIC), Dr Colin Campbell, a former executive vice president of
Total-Fina, and Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and adviser to the controversial
Bush-Cheney energy plan. They are united by one idea, that global oil production is about to peak,
which in turn will signal the permanent end of cheap oil.And they warn that this is the foundation of the current rise in oil
prices.Who hurts when prices explode?
“Oil is far too cheap at the moment,” says Mr Simmons.
“The figure I’d use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil
realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking.”“If we price oil correctly,” Mr Simmons says, “it could give us time to
find bridge fuels, fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable
economy. But I don’t see that happening.”The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output
will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be
catastrophic.“In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change,” says
Iran’s Ali Bakhtiari. “There will only be sudden explosive change.”“The people who will be least affected will be the super poor, who
already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil is $100 a
barrel.”“It is everyone who is in the middle who will be hurt the most,” says Mr
Bakhtiari. “When the crisis comes there will be enormous changes.”You writing for Michael Moore now. I know he is concerned about oil running out. I really dont know.
wldnt mind writing for mike moore. na but this was on the overnight wires (reuters)
hey Aussie,
>>”When the crisis comes there will be enormous changes.”<<
…and Prechters depression.
Thanks for posting that. I think everybody should make contingency plans in case this does happen.
We certainly are.
Boy am I glad I don’t have to drive to work. Not that my ’64 beetle 1200 uses much juice anyway. LOL
cheers
wayne – i agree – i ride a bike to work. not only do you not need a car, you get fit and its quicker through peak hour traffic. badaboom!!
so therefore rather then being depressing it might be a good thing….it depends how we approach it.
Maybe those inner city apartments are then worth the money they are selling for!!!!! But I douubt it……
reckon you will see more people working from home….so buying a house with a home office might be the way to go…as ian investment that is
What’s up with Prechter ?
Pisces
prechter – philanthropist for manic depression
ok mr rogue- I’ll go there about RE implications. I just bought an apartment without parking. Mad, some people might think! But it is in such an urban centre, that the kind of tenant it would attract would probably not have a car, not need one. The area is high in public transport, and it’s in the city. Why would one need a car?
As for me, I do have a car (most of my colleagues don’t). I live in public transport land, and my car sits in its little car cage 5 days a week. I do love my car [inlove] but really, actually owning it, when I walk to work and back, and socialise mostly in my neighbourhood… well, having it is almost questionable.
My “rule” in the past would be to buy a place with an undercover carspace… but with the nature of urban development, and with fully supported public transport, and the location of my IP… I don’t need one!
kay henry
I tell you what… It will certainly make ppl think about the use of their car and if they actually NEED it…
Cremin and I survived with one car for many years and if a push like that comes along, I am sure we would survive again with the one car again. I have no problem using public transport or using good ol’ leg power. It can be a pain, but ppl learn to be a bit more simplistic about what they actually do need a car for.
It would put a great deal more pressure on the state governments to pull their fingers out in regards to making public transport more accessible for all.
It will be interesting to watch to say the least….
[blink][guilty][glum2][stun][weird]
Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.
>>I just bought an apartment without parking. <<
Even if many poeple use public transport they, like yourself for instance, they may nevertheless have a car sitting at home.
It isn’t so attractive to have a car out on the street in Wooloomooloo because of breakins by eight year old boys and if one has a unit in the vicinty of say Green Hills one may have to walk a long way to find a carspace out on the street.
Things get even worse in times where there is an oversupply of units for rent and people can pick and choose.
I wish you well but in my opinion it would have been better to spend a bit of extra money to buy a carspace.
If it is a newish building I am surprised that units have been allowed to be built without each unit having a carspace.
Pisces
Pisces,
It’s opposite a University, mate. The tenancy market will probably be International students (most of whom don’t have a car because the Uni is so urban- this would be different in, for example, a University that was much further out of the city). The other tenancy target would be visiting academics – International scholars.
Due to the location, this unit doesn’t have to worry about “competition” from the over-supplied market etc. I’ve been after it since its conception 4 years ago- so I know the building inside and out.
I am not necessarily trying to “justify” this purchase. I am saying that if one does one’s own checking, studying of the market, knows the area well, etc, then one can make choices that might be different than one has made before.
If, for example, I bought a regoinal place (which I have), parking would be *essential*.
And thanks for wishing me luck- that’s sweet
kay henry
You do your homework brilliantly Kay! A++++!!!
Or as we say at our school… Homework is your STRENGTH…
Success is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.
Yes I have read many books/ articles about this subject and in plane simple terms I’m a frightened man.
As I see it this scenario would cause a world wide depression beyond any other the world has ever seen, bringing western Economies to there knee’s.
It doesn’t take a high IQ to understand the implications that this oil melt down would have on life as we know it.
I think it would be far less painless to have a meteor 100 miles wide slam into the earth and wipe us out in one foul swoop than to live thru a an energy crisis of this scale.
I my self don’t even want to think about this lit alone live thru it.
If you really consider how the human race is so reliant on oil you will soon understand that like no other commodity oil is the central engine behind every industry on earth
Think about it
Just to start with Food industry : without oil and its related products we could not support the huge agriculture industry that uses oil based fertilisers and fuel related products that are needed to drive food based industries .
We are too many: we are over populated to the point of no return mother earth cannot continue to support the Virus like growth of man on its recourses forever.
And even if we could grow enough food to feed us all how the hell would this food to be transported to the shelves that we all take for granted.
I see some members talking along the lines of riding bikes to work, well guys I hate to bring this to your attention but wouldn’t you think that without oil to fuel your employers company you may not have a job period, all of the worlds industries are tied in some way or another to oil weather it be directly or indirectly, this is a Plane hard fact.
I have only lived thru one Australian Rescission and from what I remember it was very painful indeed, imagine having a scenario of a world wide Melt down that is unrecoverable; this would be the end of the world as we know it.Please don’t get me wrong I Am scared to death about the possibility of such a huge and unbelievably disastrous event ,but I find it hard to keep positive knowing that just around the corner lies a problem that cannot and will not be attended to until its all to late to do anything about it.
So what are we to do? Forget it? Continue on owe wealth creation plans?
Well that’s what I’m going to do at the end of the day I don’t know if this is or is not going to happen but if it did we would all be up the creek anyway so hows a little debt going to make any difference ???Ps: WayneL I would love to hear what contingency plans you have in place to cope if it ever happens it would be great to hear something positive.
Kind Regards
What a load of
Okay now with that out of the way lets look at the faeces, it could very well be the saviour of our comsumer climate with the oil companies controlling alternate energy technologies I remembered an article from over a decade ago that was about turning faeces into fuel pretty much in a 24-hour period. This wasn’t the old Mad Max methane bit (though that would probably work as well) but more along the lines of crude oil type.
Many oils used in cars are synthetic these days anyway. Some people may say that ethanol could be a winner but unfortunately the more recent cars cannot handle ethanol properly as it damages the many delicate components in the fuel injection area of the engine…..
So what would this mean? Well if you had a solar or wind-powered house you would probably be on a winner at some stage as coal will also have to have issues and increased demand from higher energy using items per household plus more households will probably outstrip the infrastructure’s expansion. I seem to remember a house in Sydney that gets paid every power bill since he returns more power to the grid than he uses…. from a solar house (in fact the house recycled nearly everything if I remember rightly).
Once the problem manifests itself those with units close to city centres may end up on a winner though currently that may not be the case. Of course if the oil industry does collapse then the amount of economic hardship to follow may mean cheaper accomodation and even boarding houses would be the better buy….. solar or faeces powered of course [lmao]
A few weeks ago I also would have responded to the gradual decrease in oil supply with the increase in demand from continual global growth causing a massive oil crisis with concern for transportation.
Until I read a well researched report by an energy expert that in depth described how the US massive dependence on oil is largely as a result of, as pointed out in an earlier post, fertilizers.
The move into Iraq and working towards a ‘friendly’ middle east for the supply of the dwindling resource, really hit home for me when you realise that it’s not just about driving your car, or even making a huge tech. change to alternative power sources for industry and transportation.
Without the ability to maintain the food supply, all other oil issues lose importance!!
On a positive note, humans have made incredible technological advances and I’m confident as oil prices increase long term, which is a given, the consequential economic opportunities arise, as all associated oil consuming industries look for alternatives, economic and social chaos will be averted.
History is full of the human desire to make money leading to inventions and the following social change to meet the demand created.
With that, I’m off to eat some chicken and salad before we are all eating capsule food[worried]
Like I said, I had no idea oil was used but a quick search came up with….
‘Using them in a solid form simplifies the handling of artificial fertilisers and means that the contents are released more slowly into the soil. This reduces the risk of nutrients leaching out. The surface of individual granules must be treated, however, to ensure that granules do not cake together or form dust. A free-flowing and dust-free fertiliser is important for handling at all stages, from production to end use.
Some fertiliser manufacturers make their own anti-caking systems, while others buy in ready-made mixtures.
An anti-caking system mainly consists of two components: an additive and an oil. Sometimes a powder of talcum or clay may also be used during the treatment of the granule. The additive, which often contains amines, plays the most important part and is also the most expensive ingredient. The oil functions as a carrier for the additive. The oil is sprayed on the granules and the powder is dispensed as needed and attaches itself to the surface.’Rather complicated but I guess a $100 a barrel oil price will make food more expensive and at some point, no oil = a massive production reduction unless sceintists come up wityh something.
A huge reduction in food production can only lead to as huge reduction in population worldwide long term….thus the relevance to the property market??
Probably not an issue in the next 15 -20 years though.
A detailed study into what oil is used for though would probably raise a lot of other questions on teh impact of a high oil price will have!!
The oil price boom produces a crisis in the food industry because we use some oil as anti-caking agent for NPK fertilizers??????
Would be like saying that it will produce a crisis in the hotel industry because the complimentary shampoo sachets the Hotels put in the toilets are made from plastic that needs oil for its production [blink]Higher oil prices will make other products that are now discarded or suppressed suddenly feasible and such additives can be replaced with other oils almost immediately. IF your father was in Europe during WW2 ask him how they got by with hardly any fuel, and he will tell you how far the ingenuity of man can go.
The challenges with high prices of oil are clearly in the fuel and plastic industry, and agriculture is a high consumer of both.
We have the technology to turn garbage into oil and gas and some plants already operating, we can turn vegetable oil into diesel in our own backyard with zero technology, we can mass-produce electric cars any time we actually decided to do so, we already produce electricity from wind and sun, soon to be added waves and convection towers. Why are not all this things taken up seriously by governments around the world to provide us with an energy crisis soft landing? Furthermore, why is so much technology been suppressed or allowed to be suppressed by private interests?
The response depends on which information you prefer to believe, and how far are you prepared to challenge your preconceived ideas on how the world is run, by whom and for what ultimate purpose.
May be this oil crisis is “the crisis we had to have!”[cigar]
May God prosper you always.[biggrin]
MarcWell said Marc1, couldn’t agree more with your technological advances saving the day thoughts!!
The artcile I read, I thought it said that the MAIN user of oil in the US by % is the agricultural sector because it is needed to produce fertilizers. After rereading it, it only breaks down the oil needed for teh agricultural sector!!
Also, for Robert, the author was claiming that this is the peak now for oil production capabilities and it’s all down here from here, long term.Now, he may be the doom and gloom predictor of the next oil crisis type of person. Only time will tell.
I’ve done a quick search and found the article, so if you are into a big read, here it is….
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fr…eating_oil.html
Very negative I know, so read your favourite motivation material after it as a pick me up!!
I better head back to the environmental forum as I don’t seem to have gotten much on the property market in this post[guilty]
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