I guess one way to work out how far prices should drop is to work out how far they overshot the mean by during the peak of the boom and now. To work out the mean, one would need to look at stats over a decent amount of time and plot these stats, then put the long term trend line through these plotted stats to show where the prices should be!
Anyone done this?
a friends property in blackburn (melbourne) was listed 3 months ago at 470k. its now on the market at 425. they have had one offer in 3 months at that was at 415k….
Prices in WA are still affordable and still achieving considerable growth in some key areas. Construction for The new rail link for the southern corridor is underway and it is proposed the Rockingham area’s population will have doubled by 2016 which accounts for the massive overhaul of the local hospital. The foreshore is being developed with highrise appartments and the price for real estate there is still considerably lower than the Perth median house price….definately worth a look.[biggrin]
Originally posted by yack:I am not sure how far down it will go.
But we cannot sustain current prices when a young couple needs to find a $250k mortgage for an average Melbourne family home.
Back in 1997, I thought a $100k mortgage was a shitload of money.
I agree
I was talking to a friend who is a bank loan
officer and he was telling me the average loan now
is about 350kI think to determine where we are, one would have to graph a couple of stats
% of median house price to average income (maybe across a couple of tax brackets to get a good feel)
Then take factors like interest rates and apply a adjustment them to balance that factor out.
I haven’t done it – but I’ll bet there has been a significant upswing from 5 years ago even taking interest rates into consideration.
Now I think if you plotted that onto a logarithmic graph (go look it up if you don’t know what it is) and look at 10 or 20 years, you would be able to draw a line over the median and be able to work out where we are at..
Anyone have the info to try this? Would be interesting..
Paul
info@ez-rent,comEZ-Rent. The free tax and cashflow simulator for Australian property investors. Version 2 out now!
http://www.ez-rent.comOriginally posted by gmh454:Originally posted by kaloni:just to show you how bad the
docklands in melbourne are at the moment
a unit auctioned saturday was bought off the plans
2001 for about 955k was sold for 715kSounds bad but if they are an o/s buyer, when you take currency shifts into account, they may have broken even. Won’t help stabilse prices though.
that one was a local buyer, he was occupying it when it sold. From what I can see of it 20-25% losses are fairly common in southbank and docklands for those who bought of the plan in the last few years. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the market has fallen in those areas though, I think it more a case of people paying way above the market off the plan.
Originally posted by paul_s:Originally posted by gmh454:Originally posted by kaloni:just to show you how bad the
docklands in melbourne are at the moment
a unit auctioned saturday was bought off the plans
2001 for about 955k was sold for 715kSounds bad but if they are an o/s buyer, when you take currency shifts into account, they may have broken even. Won’t help stabilse prices though.
that one was a local buyer, he was occupying it when it sold. From what I can see of it 20-25% losses are fairly common in southbank and docklands for those who bought of the plan in the last few years. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the market has fallen in those areas though, I think it more a case of people paying way above the market off the plan.
Thanks for that, owch that’s gotta hurt. I think time will show your comment about the price of OTP units may be correct.
Funny how one overvalued apartment sets the benchmark for the next. Those ppl never did their homework but relied on sales info as if it was independant advice.
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