Crash > Crash > Crash

Maybe you are predicting a plane crash or car crash… (best stay indoors then!)

Property prices may correct slightly in some markets, but the word crash… mmm doubt it.

Luke [cap]

we haqvent had a good crash discussion for a while. if it crashes it will be a problem for many people. imagine paying of a loan that is more than than the price of your asset. and if the market stays dull for years (see singapore, hong kong, japan etc ), poeple need cash to survibe, you cld see a huge credit strain, the banks will start to bleed and we could have ourselves a fully fledged depression.

then again it might not!!!

peaople have made alot of money at the expense of others in the current cycle (see first home owners) so i dont see a crash as preying on others misfortune. we all owe it to ourselves to understand that a crash cld happen and take the necessary action to limit the damage.

so if your top heavy on property sell some of it, buy some shares or some gold and leave some cash in the bank i reckon.

Hope > Hope > Hope >
But I dought it

boom or bust is anyone’s guess, but let’s not forget market fundamentals such as the very real and quickly aging population – was only reading a couple of days ago about how diverse suburbs will fare better in the future than the traditional 1/4 acre block suburbs as the ‘oldies’ want to live closer to their children but don’t want to live in a huge house. The value of medium density housing is still under rated in my opinion – certainly in comparison to it’s development cost. The emerging boomers are putting more emphasis on location and lifestyle than large tracts of land and hence are paying a fortune for high building component properties. In economics speak, I believe there is/will be a shift in the demand curve – just one point to consider.

Alternatively, become a joint venture partner in one of our property development partnerships – contact me to find out why our developments are unique. John – 0419 198 856

That’s a bit harsh Jo.

AusProp, interesting that you’ve mentioneed this. It’s note *merely* the demographic that has changed (although it has with an ageing population, so that has changed too). I also think the shift to apartment living and less emphasis on the 1/4 acre block style of living, will really have some influence on the market. There is so much talk of the oversupplied unit market, but people’s lifestyles have changed, and unit living has become a viable alternative (perhaps particularly for older people who don’t feel able to maintain a yard etc anymore).

Yes, land value is a fundamental, I think. And yet, so are lifestyle changes in the way people live. Think about it- the concept of units/apartments/villas/townhouses has only been around for about 40 years. I can always almost guage a population of a place if there’s units there. Really small towns only have houses- at slightly bigger, there are units in existence. (Yeah, I know, people will say this is a space thing, but it’s not entirely).

Now there are all these retirement villages for older people- looking after their needs- this didn’t exist too many decades ago, as families kind of looked after their own, or older people moved to nursing homes when they were really sick.

Younger people who enjoy apartment living now (and the gyms and cafes and pools) might, when they’re in their 80’s, find more need for other lifestyle aspects (massage rooms etc). Wyho knows? It’s hard to know what older people’s needs will be in 50 years time. But apartment livers are going to get older and I wonder how their needs will change, and if they’ll be wishing to move back to houses with gardens when they’ve lived in units with courtyards and balconies.

kay henry

Is it??????

If you were a new player in the property investment scene, and decided to take a look at this forum, the heading crash > crash > crash is really going to instill positive feelings in someone who perhaps feels that those in here are negative about the market at the moment. Sorry, but the heading doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy; it is not threatening to me (as an experienced prop investor) but still an unnecessary message to convey to newcomers!!

How about setting a good example, by posting (at least in the headings) with a bit more thought???

Still too harsh?? oh well, that is your opinion and I will accept you wrapping me across the knuckles, but I am not the one implying “doom and gloom” even in the post headings.

Jo

I don’t think it’s unrealistic to believe a crash is coming. The last 2 years in particular has seen many illinformed people jumping into property solely on the basis of the media hype and keeping up with the Joneses. These are the same people that will react to the media hype of a supposed crash and try and jump out of the market. The serious property investors will hold on knowing it’s a long term game. These same investors will make money during the crash for those very same reasons.

There has been a lot of hype driving the prices up so a lot of hype can also bring them down. I don’t think anyone, from Macfarlane down, has any real idea what is going to happen. Whatever happens, it’s going to be an interesting ride.

Hi Kay,

You are entitled to your beliefs, and dislike of the word “loser”.

I still stand firm, that positive thought is always a better message to convey, regardless of how mature the reader is…better to assume he/she may take it badly, and just post a more positive heading.

At the end of the day, I don’t really care….but if he wants to dramatise a situation that he has no factual evidence on, aside from mere speculation, then it is going to irritate some (self included).

I make no apologise for calling him what I did, and if he objects, he can PM me directly or shame me publicily here in the forum…he is as entitled to respond as he wishes, should he choose to do so.

Jo

Hi Tony!

Excuse the manners of the previous posters, but I think your own post was mm how to say …venturesome.

You don’t go to the airline check in and say to the check in chick, I have a bomb in my luggage, ha ha April fool . . . Don’t try that, you will get your back side kicked. They take security seriously and people around here take market indicators seriously. It is bad enough to listen to the media commentators drivel, parroting what is fed to them for a fee.

Despite some people thinking they may benefit from a sharp price correction in RE, nothing is isolated in the economy and such fall would indicate that the whole economy is in turmoil and an economy that is in a downturn can only spell problems for almost everyone.

What most around here seem to agree upon though, is that no such fall will take place and that we must find opportunity where most see doom. Think different. Never follow the crowd.

People rush to sell in an indifferent market in Sydney to beat a smallish (jet unjust) new tax. Save $8000 and drop 30,000 from the price in order to sell seems a bit foolish to me but hey, who is complaining? Offer $50,000 under the market price or more! The fun part has just began
and if you are smart, you may just get the chance to prove that money does not make you happy.[biggrin]

May God bless you
and prosper you.
Marc