There are many articles floating around which are quoting sources like BIS Shrapnel and the like suggesting that Brisbane, Perth and Hobart will continue to see good CG over the next few years while other cities will see declines. I suggest that this is not accurate and that all cities and towns in Aus. and NZ will see price contractions over the next few(2) years. I think that Bris. and Perth may not decline as much as Syd and Melb. but that the prices will soften. The net migration to QLD is exaggerated as almost every Uni grad. after qualifying in QLD is leaving for Syd or Melb to find a job along with heaps of other young people in search of work. Another huge myth is that baby boomers will affect the market considerably. Only 5% of baby boomers have enough income to support themselves in retirement, so even if they all migrated north (not the case) they would not have enough money to buy property anyway and have very little significant affect on the property market. Another myth is that Aus. has a massive influx of foreign migrants. Only 130K immigrants are allowed into Aus. every year with 55K going to Sydney. Total number of immigrants is 0.65% of total population – no way of affecting the market in any meaningful way.
Bottom line. Only job growth can really affect the market to any great extent and has not changed much lately and is not likely to. Without the stimulus of jobs, the population that is here (or migrates here) are not able to spend up big on property so take care when buying, even in Brisbane and Perth.
Bottom line. Only job growth can really affect the market to any great extent and has not changed much lately and is not likely to. Without the stimulus of jobs, the population that is here (or migrates here) are not able to spend up big on property so take care when buying, even in Brisbane and Perth.LOL, I thought I was a cynic! Well, i don’t know about the other states, but unemployment is WA has been dropping, so perhpas we will be OK over here!
Good for you HousesOnly!
I think you’re totally wrong & have a very limited understanding of economics, but time will tell
BTW: Lots of new jobs being created in QLD right now, the idea that uni grads all move to Sydney & Melbourne is factually wrong.
Look at the figures – SE QLD corridor to overtake Melbourne as the second largest population area in Australia over the next 15 years or so….true %-wise unemployment may not change…but the influx of people does mean more in jobs & more looking for property.
As to ‘massive immigration’ – well actually we DO have massive immigration – compare it to immigration levels for all the countries around the world – we are in the top 5 as a % of our population
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Aceyducey
I have an economics degree so I guess you are right – that I have a limited understaning of economics! Imagine how good an understanding those who have not done any tertiary study in the field must have!So you are suggesting that the 0.65% increase in our population from immigration (excluding the declining birth rate) will have an effect on the property market?
Seems that too many people quote the side of the arguement that suits them e.g. 15000 migrations to QLD per month – but reglect to mention that there are 14000 migrations out of QLD every months!
Well I can see the property market already slowing in Brisbane. Our office has much more on the market now that we have had for the past 2 years. Prices that we were achieving for your averarge 3 bedroom Queenslander 6 months ago we are now srtuggling to get. Just watching other offices Auction results and I believe about 60% of them are being pased in and still not selling after the auction.
Agents are now advertising properties “Vendors slash price”, “Must Sell”, “Bring me an offer” all signs of a slowing market and returning to some normality.
To say the Brisbane will be unaffected by whats happening elsewhere I believe is not true as our market is no different to Sydney and Melbourne or any other city in Australia. Some property prices will fall, I have already seen it and some will not. People who bought 6-12 months ago and want to sell over the next 6 months for a good gain, might be very dissapointed with the price thats achieveable!I am by no means an expert, just my opinion from what I seen and read during my 10 years in real estate
Jarrod
Jarrod Lane Real Estate[exhappy]The main driver for Perth is the resources led investment boom. Some truly huge deals being signed off – good for Australia and good for Perth (so long as they leave some energy for our children!?)
Extensive list of new Perth property available for sale.Alternatively, become a joint venture partner in one of our property development partnerships – contact me to find out why our developments are unique. John – 0419 198 856
Originally posted by HousesOnly:[/iSo you are suggesting that the 0.65% increase in our population from immigration (excluding the declining birth rate) will have an effect on the property market?
Short-medium term demand for housing is driven by the rate of household formation.
I agree that at least in the major cities immigration is a major driver of household formation.
So are the divorce rate, the proportion of people living alone and the birth rate approx 18-25 years ago.
Established households wanting to shift also affects demand, towards some areas or types of houses and away from others.
In any one year most people don’t move house or form new households.
Thus though immigration may add only 0.65% to the number households each year, because 100% are forming new households, the effect on property markets is disproportionate. You could say the same about divorcees or people leaving home to form their own.
This is yet another example where apparently small changes at the margins can have disproportionate effects.
This is not unique to property and I’m sure you can think of other examples where marginality in economics can affect whole systems.
Regards, Peter
Houses only – No offence but Economics Degree Shmeconomics degree. Most people have a degree and it means absolutely squat. A degree (which I also have) is really only a tool to get your first job. Then one starts learning about the real world – and how economics really works.
I think you are definitely wrong about the South East Queensland market – in particular house/land (inner city unbits will probably decline in value). Land though is still tight Gold Coast and Brisbane and there are still ballots due to pent up demand. Yes, capital growth will moderate in the next few years but will still nevertheless grow. Many baby boomers will relocate to Queensland from Southern states. Many will buy in the next few years with a view to migrating later on. Make no mistake. It is happening. This will underpin prices. One does not need huge population growth to achieve capital growth (although we have a decent amount of population growth as well). My opinion only. Regards.Hmmmmmmm, I seem to recall all these same arguments being presented some years ago…..just before the last bust!
The Property Wheel keeps turning huh……..next phase..
REDWING
“Money is a currency, like electricity and it requires momentum to make it Effective”
why speculate anyway?… just too many factors… a fall or rise should be considered in your strategy
Well I knew when I posted this that I would get a lot of resistance from those who just dont want to accept that a correction is inevitable and that this time it is not different! Make no mistake, the market in SE QLD is slowing and prices are dropping just like they are in other areas. If you refuse to accept the reality, do so at your own peril and I will not have sympathy for those who get burnt.
The purpose of the post is only to warn inexperienced investors to do even more thorough research at this time.
HousesOnly has a point. There is no substitute for alot of research. Of course there will be areas in every state that decline in the near term but also areas in every state that will grow. Land on the Queensland coast from Gold Coast to Cairns looks pretty safe to me (within say 2km to waters edge) even if the Brisbane and Gold Coast CBD’s crash. Just my opinion. The title of the name “housesonly” to me sounds like you are switched on as house/land will ultimately be the most insulated from any slow or declining markets. Also excellent in the growing markets. Regards.
I agree but we have one small edge or maybe not so small here in queensland and that is the lifestyle and you cant get it in Melbourne or sydney all year round after all the RE market at the moment is all about lifestyle and not just RE but also in other aspects of people’s lives people are sick of just living a life they want to live a paticular lifestyle thats where Queensland comes into it look around you where living in the age of “lifestyle”
If you do your homework and choose the right areas everything is a potential boom or bust.
You just have to know what to look for.jeeze amatures
krazy- how many times do I have to tell you? [hmm]
How about instead of calling people “amatures” (or amateurs..), you let the participants of the forum have their discussion?
Most of the posts you have made on the forum so far are mere advertisements. Can ya chill with the namecalling, please?
kay henry
Housesonly certainly seems to know his stuff but then so do the respondents.
Again i think some areas will decline others increase.
Here in Perth we seem to have some growth left as employment is up and we are far behind Eastern States.Same as 2years agoOriginally posted by cobra8272:Housesonly certainly seems to know his stuff but then so do the respondents.
Again i think some areas will decline others increase.
Here in Perth we seem to have some growth left as employment is up and we are far behind Eastern States.Same as 2years agoI have just moved from Melbourne to Perth (Home[biggrin]) and I partially agree.
The Perth market has always lagged the eastern states…both booms and busts.
There are still some areas of quite good value. But In my opinion certain sectors of the market are more overvalued than Melbourne.
I still think that the good value areas will become better value areas as this cycle plays out. They will get sucked down with the rest of the market. ( not to the same extent of course)
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