I’ve started this thread in reference to the comments which were made on Steve’s thread “Where does the market go from here?”
Ausprop and others were discussing the strength of the Aussie Dollar and how long it would last, as well as China’s strength economically and it’s growth as a leading power.
I attended a small seminar a short time ago and was interested to hear what the guest economist spoke about…. it is in refence to this same topic.
The man -who’s attitude and direction towards his audience was horrible- brought out his theory on how money worked. I could ramble on keep you reading for the next three hours (which is how long he took to make his point known) but I’ll try and simplify it.
He stated (like a conspiracy theory, with facts) that the world’s economy and money patterns were not a result of economic change as such but by the men behind the money. His belief is that money is run by the Federal Reserve in America which is run by peoples unknown… the reserve bank and the federal reserve, as I’m sure you all know, is not government run. The Federal reserve has the ability to take back any money they give out to the banks if they ‘need it’ and therefore the banks have the right to take back any money they have lent to you.His prediction was that the AUd will only last in strangth until around April when the USd strengthens due to the federal reserve’s ability to raise interest rates and overseas investors will start to move monies out of our market and slowly back into a rising overseas market.
I’d like to hear any comments based on this prediction and whether they think it will affect the property market in any way??[
]Another point which was made- and I am foreign to the way China’s growth has come about (comments would be good)was that China had lost out rhough agriculture of late and therefore pushed more and more people towards the city for money reasons. This in turn led to the surge of property and produce sales as the amount of people living closer to industry rose.?? What effect does this really have on an economy??[
]Just a few anecdotes on how China got economically strong. I believe it was due to the govt opening up to foreign trade. Everyone else thought the huge market would be worth taking a risk on so started courting the Communists. The US govt has been right there in the front line fostering relations, believing that a more open China dependent on international trade will be less of a rogue world power.
I was in Pennsylvania in 2001/2002 which used to be the tool and die captial of the universe, but all that has shifted to China since the liberalization of their political system. That industry in Pennsylvania is a pathetic skeleton of its previous self now.
Further, it wasn’t that long ago that Taiwan, South Korea, and Malaysia all adopted a similar economic strategy to that adopted by Japan post WWII. It paid off. I see China basically doing the same now.
Hewlett Packard in the last 2 years have much of their hardware manufactured in China. Previously it was Taiwan.
Bruce
Mooloolaba, Qldregarding the USD, I looked closely at putting my money into a syndicate trying to raise $50million to do USD currency trades a few months ago. The trader we were going to use believed there would be a lot of volatility with the USD in the first half of 2004.
I doubt the US would raise their interest rates unless key economic indicators show signs of improving. The last figures I saw were that employment was not improving.
Nevertheless, I am not an economist and there may be some angle the Reserve can argue that an interest rate rise in the US will stimulate capital injections back into its borders, which will stimulate economic growth, despite the adverse effects on consumption. I think they could probably argue it whichever way they want.
Bruce
Mooloolaba, QldFunny about China coming up, I was just going through some of my old photos.
I cant really say much economically as I am not interested really but….
Now, when I went to China, they were not far from vying for the Olympic games…hmm I am talking early 90’s here. Tiennamen (spelling?) had been and gone in terms of what happened, however the tourist boom was massive.
Lets face it how many countries do you go to where they have the Local currency and the one for foreigners! Foreigners were not supposed to have the local currency and they paid the tourist price, not the local price.
When I was there, many foreign companies were in on the ground, building business. Maccers and KFC were there, and YUK, horrible food to eat at the best of times, but in China!!! dont even go there…..
They were paying top dollar for experienced people, they had them working there 3-6 months and then sent them home and back again. They were making large sums of money.Companies were flourishing, China was a market to be getting into.
Now more than ten years on, Taiwan has faded as China has emerged. Most airconditioning units are made in China, check out your pc too.
Lets hope that they finally have electric jugs in the rooms now and not thermos flasks!
China is a power to be reckoned with. One of my friends told me, dont learn Japanese, Learn Mandarin, he said it was the most spoken language on earth. He was so emphatic, despite the fact he had fled mainland for the island of Taiwan. China he said in an arrogant kind of way,was the most powerful country, just watch and see.
I knew I should have gone to an investment seminar….securities institute hold these often, the last one was on where the property market was going…doh!
Elves
]
]
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
