>>However I am approaching this from a different angle than you might imagine. The economic cycle is really a manifestation of social mood. We point to the stock market, mainly because it is so easily and accurately quantifyable. But we also track other things that are less easily quantifyable, including such things as Real estate, art, music/movies, politics, religion etc.<<
and
>>The social mood will affect different things at different times. These are all blunt measures of mood, so the timing of peaks and troughs in the cycle is mainly guesswork. As I said in my post above, it may not happen for a while yet, but it may have already started. Nevertheless my plan is in place and is working satisfactorily. <<
Ah, cycles. My favourite subject.
Pisces
Cycles. That raises the question how to recognise approaching tops and bottoms sooner than most people.
In sharetrading I’ve got no problem doing so but when it comes to real estate, well that is something else again.
Yes, we can (and should), broadly speaking, take notice of trends in interest rate, employment figures, manufacturing production etc.
Sometimes all the signs are there telling us to not participate. Several years later the (real estate) market is still nicely toddling along.
I have also seen the real estate market turn into a frantic dash to buy a property just as I have seen the market disappear. Both of these events happening – literally – overnight !!
If, as was my experience, the market goes flat – overnight – it just isn’t possible to get out by dumping a property unless one wants to play Father X-mas.
In one instance that I refused to do. Six months later I sold for even less than Father X-mas prices !!!
What is the solution ?
(I think) I’ve got that under control but seeing this is a forum perhaps Wayne (or others) may like to embroider on that subject ?
Cheers,
Pisces
Wayne, I enjoy your writings but I have my doubts about your grasp of geography.
I note that in your personal details it shows as :
User Name: wayneL
Location: perth, VIC
Australia
Total Posts: 359
Perth ? Victoria ?
I understand that there is a Perth in Tasmania as well but in Victoria ?? [rolleyesanim] [wink]
Pisces
Originally posted by Pisces:Wayne, I enjoy your writings but I have my doubts about your grasp of geography.
I note that in your personal details it shows as :
User Name: wayneL
Location: perth, VIC
Australia
Total Posts: 359
Perth ? Victoria ?
I understand that there is a Perth in Tasmania as well but in Victoria ?? [rolleyesanim] [wink]
Pisces
[blush2][blush2]Ahem…your post left me grasping for my Readers Digest World Atlas.
My investigations reveal that it is in fact WA where I currently reside. I even pulled out my street directory, just to check the Perth bit LOL!![party][blink]
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