Hi all,
My old man asked me this morning what will happen with interest rates and how much will they be by Christmas 2004. The reason being he unsure where to invest some cash at the moment…
My thoughts are that they will rise to maybe 8% by Xmas 2004 – what do you guys think ?? [?]
Cheers,
Paul…“The only thing you get from looking backwards is a sore neck…”
I’d say 7.7% by christmas 2004, hope i’m close!
Fudge111
Hi Guys
And here are your lotto numbers for next week – 2, 8, 13, 19, 27, 29, 35, 39.
Regards
Hi Paul,
Long time, no chat. How the hell are ya?
I guess you are talking cash rates. Buggered if I know the answer. But here’s my uneducated gut feeling: An increase of 0.25% by March 2004, then no more than another 0.50% increase by Christmas 2004.
If your old man wants to park some cash, would he consider investing it with his son??
Drop me a note, I’d like to say g’day.
Kind regards, Phil
My bet is that the Fed govt will do all in it’s power to try to coerce the Rez Bank into keeping interest rates at the same rate until after the election. The Reserve is “independent” only after Lib gov elections- then it’s free to do as it pleases. My bet is that after the election, we’ll see interest rates go up by 1% by next xmas.
Fatboy- is there a prize for winning this comp? the new Fatboy slim CD perhaps? ;O)
kay henry
Kay, yes, you get the satisfaction of saying “I told you so…” [
]Phil, will shoot you an email… [
]muppet: Thanks for the constructive input… Please note i was asking for peoples thoughts on the subject, not any guarantees… [
]Fudge: Any reason why you chose that figure ?? [^]
Cheers,
Paul…“The only thing you get from looking backwards is a sore neck…”
Thanks Paul,
I hope you wrote it down as I have now edited my mail address from my post. If not, let me know and I’ll throw it on the board again.
Phil
Yep, got it Phil – sent you an email about 10 minutes ago… [
]Cheers,
Paul…“The only thing you get from looking backwards is a sore neck…”
G’day Paul
I agree with Kay. I think she is right ,Jack Boot Johnny will hold rates down until after the next election. He may even convince the reserve bank to drop the rate just a smige before the election, to fool the people into voting for the libs again.
Do not get me wrong I have not got a dislike for the libs or thier leader, I just think they are all tarred with the same brush.Cheers
Craigc.
P.S. Kay we will have to stop agreeing with each other or people will start to talk []Fatboy,
I think I’m a bit like Muppet, i just grabbed a number out of thin air, but i think obviously it will increase just slightly, it won’t rise very fast i wouldn’t think.
Fudge111[
]Hey FatBoy…
Im thinking the next rise will be .25% just before xmas. then depending on how jobs and the aussie dollar go, anything can happen….
I looked up some loan papers from the comm bank, from a loan i had about 3 or 4 yrs ago, and the varialbe rate was 8.02%… a far cry from what the rate is now…
but by 2004 xmass? perhaps just under 8%… and i VERY much doubt that rates will fall. I just refinanced my largest loan with Members Equity at 6.49% fixed for 3 years… a pretty good deal wen u consider Comm’ banks variable rate is 6.57%!
My humble opinion
Jason
Hi Guys,
I think there will be a slight increase in rates to reduce spending before this Christmas which will then be reduced back down to current rates for the election. Slowly they will rise up for Christmas next year once the election is won.
Just my thoughts,
LuckyoneWhen is the next election due?[
]Why do people think interest rates will rise?
Ok, they’re not going to stay low forever, but what indicates they will rise any time soon?
My feeling is that as the recent increases in the dollar begins to adversely effect business growth, and the current account deficit, the presure will be to keep interst rates low to prevent a recession.
This Liberal government is about keeping business and the economy growing. The only thing they have really done to help Real Estate is to revive the first home owners scheme, and that was primarilly to give the building industry a boost, and at the same time reduce increasing pressure on rent assistance, not help small time property investors.
Since industry is already being slugged by the dollar, why should there be any pressure on substantial changes to interest rates.
Dino
“If you don’t know where you are going, every road will take you there.”
Hi Guys
Question: How far can the Govt let the Aust Dollar appreciate against the American dollar?
The NZ dollar is now about 61.5c to the Ameriacn dollar and our economy is hurting because of it( highest it has been for about 6 yrs) and our OCR rate is higher than yours.
Oh well your Govt has jumped into bed with the Americans anyway and so Guys, you have not got too much to worry about with interest rates rising too far.
Regards
Hi Guys,
OK, I’m a little green, but doesn’t there need to be a slow down in growth? Like a “recession we have to have”? Or am I wrong and we not in a similar position to what we were then?
Your thoughts…
Sue[]“Be careful not to step on the flowers when you’re reaching for the stars”
diclem- you don’t seem so green- you look kind of blue to me [:X]
Yes, spending is at an all-time high in Australia, and by increasing interest rates, it slows spending. It also scares the bejeezuz out of people, and they crack- it’s a weird psychological thing. I remember when I had money invested and got an 18% return. When interest rates are that high, it’s ok to panic if you’re in debt up the wazoo.
If interest rates don’t increase, it’s possible that people will get into unsustainable debt, and that can’t be good for anyone. [xx(]
And craig? [
]kay henry
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