****** STAND BACK PEOPLE !!! *****
THE TESTOSTERONE IS GONNA BLOW!!!!!!! hahahahaha
Come on fellas…lighten up. If we cant agree like adults..are we gonna get all pi$$y and pout in the corner? I think not..
Now…the BBQ….november sometime. A kid friendly atmoshpere….a park….half naked male slaves…maybe Steve can shout the lobster? Blind folds for the children and those under 21 LOL
Ohhhhhh….maybe a theme BBQ!! Property Investment and Bondage. A leather get together… lmao !!!! [}
][}][}][}].
~ Heaven doesnt want me and Hell is afraid I will take over! ~ :þ
Ahh the talk of the 87 crash …..One of Australia’s great investors when asked how he felt on the morning he woke to find the Dow down 500 he said that he “slept like a baby”
Slept, woke up, cried, slept, woke up, cried, slept, woke up, cried ….
Quote:Haha, I like that one xyzzyQuote:Be told as someone that has been in the stock market since the Poseidon Boom that when the godzilla effect hits and it falls you just can’t get the hedges on in time ….There is an answer to that. Have at least some sort of hedge on at all times.
These days it is easy. You can always carry a few shorts via CFD’s as an automatic hedge.
But I like SPI futures. Its virtually a 24 hour market and I can place an emergency contingency sell order slightly below key levels in case New York goes up in smoke overnight.
Some people ALWAYS have a long dated, way out of the money index put option in the bottom drawer. These are cheap as, and are effective insurance against an inevitable calamity in the market.
I really hate market cliche’s but this one is good; heard it fro RK:
Amateurs hope, professionals hedge.
Cheers
****** STAND BACK PEOPLE !!! *****THE TESTOSTERONE IS GONNA BLOW!!!!!!! hahahahaha
Come on fellas…lighten up. If we cant agree like adults..are we gonna get all pi$$y and pout in the corner? I think not..
Now…the BBQ….november sometime. A kid friendly atmoshpere….a park….half naked male slaves…maybe Steve can shout the lobster? Blind folds for the children and those under 21 LOL
Ohhhhhh….maybe a theme BBQ!! Property Investment and Bondage. A leather get together… lmao !!!! [}
][}][}][}]LOL Pinky,
Like I said earlier, I’m just trying to get my post count up[
]November!!!!!!![
][][] I will have left Melbourne by then….damn!!!!!Hi Bill,
Thanks for your informative and balanced post, backed up with real figures and dates. I see that you hold a healthy “big picture” overview. I unfortunately tend to hone in on one aspect, and even try to force it to work! How crazy is that?
A couple of the points you raised have hit home. Although this forum is based on +ve cashflow deals, there is much merit in such discussion as you have raised.
1/ You mentioned the big real estate value drops. Happened to a mate of mine. (I can’t recall the year like you have). Interest rates went way up, owner occupied value down and his wife lost her part-time job due to the mass “restructuring”. Talk about a Catch-22. They could not afford the increasing repayments, nor could they afford to actually borrow money to pay back the shortfall in the sale. I never did find out how they sorted it out. I only know they aren’t married anymore.
2/ On a more positive note .. the added value you mention. Steve mentions this one big time. PERCEPTION is a funny thing. How’s this ? .. Toyota were selling utes. They threw in a toolbox for “free” .. yeah right. BUT .. the retail value of the toolbox was around $1200. I bet it cost Toyota about half that.
There have been lengthy discussions here about shares vs. property. My view is that the mix of any investments, will be as varied as is appropriate to the individual. Go back a few pages and you will find the topic. I feel that most people missed the point. It’s not about which is better, it’s about market timing, individual’s circumstance, and as Steve keeps telling us, due dilligence.
Kind regards,
Phil
Please email me with a phone number…we can have a no committment yarn…and take it from there.
The deal is…either party can say no without any hard feelings…cuts both ways
Please include your telephone number.Billfromoz
(02)6342 1274Any chance of getting mentored?
G’day….Yep me again….and its lengthy too.
Not wishing to leave anyone out I address this post to ALL that responded to my last G’day.
I feel that those who responded at least are considering what I had to say and appreciated your input…thank you.My first purchase in Real Estate was 3x1br Units in a block of 36b Units. It was Unit Plan number 1 in Canberra…near the Hackett shops if you live in Canberra…. @ $6,000 each….promptly sold for $9,000 each.
1st Mortgage 80% of purchase price plus unregistered 2nd Mortgage from Vendor for balance.This is too easy… next deal 1/3 share in 42 units for $550,000 ( 1971) Sold 36 on the phone
(subject to inspection)within 48 hours prior to settlement. I kept 6 and made a 1/3 profit of the
$112,000 on the 36 that we sold with simultaneous settlements.Kep Enderby MP (showing my age) introduced a “fair rent” tribunal…some where marked up others down. Overall now negative as interest rates went up, up and away…….. Now not so clever after paying 66% tax on the profits.
2004/005 Interest rates UP whether our exporters like it or not…A$ moves up to .7700 against US$.
Wage increase demands…inflation takes off by 2006…so Howard gets back in before the Sh*t hits the proverbial fan. Real Estate starts it’s next move up but, by now “Real Estate is a mugsgame”.Those that held don’t worry about their temporary “paper loss”. For them it’s tough mentally. However those with the “magic” off the plan.. with family home now at risk…dump their “I’m gonna be rich investment properties”…along with the rest of the “crowd” that wrapped deals without knowing what they were doing. All proffessions require many years of experience to excell in their chosen field…. it will be blood in the streets. Some will have committed suicide, and I don’t mean just financial.
Just before all this happened…inexperienced players got into the investment market after reading a book or two…most only “talked” about what they were “gunna do”…a lot acted and got caught up in the hype. They tried to wrap properties…they were at the bottem end of the scale as far as expertise was concerned…so were their clients………impending disaster because neither party knew what they were doing…they didn’t get an experienced partner or a mentor.
But this market is different….yeah? October 20th ’87 Stock Market is VERY VERY similar to now, believe me I had clients mostly out…but some still in and watched $250,000 investments crash to about $110,000 within an hour of the market opening.
Back to Real Estate…imagine a $280,000 new landscaped home “stunning” could not sell @ $215,000 within 12 months..that was Canberra 1996…inched it’s way up for a year or two…owner bails out with only a $50,000 loss…he thanks his lucky stars. Today it’s worth $475,000…with another 25% decline…12-24 months about $350,000 odd.
Smaller 2Br. units from $112,000 down to $60,000. Cheap homes $120/$130,000 down to $75,000 if you could find a buyer…..and where did the smart money go…you guessed it ” Real Estate” and made a fortune from 1997 until 2003/04. The Real Estate market troughed in September 1994…9 long years ago. But this time it’s different……..BS.
Not too many of you would know that…in the 16th century in Holland, people got caught up in the Tulip Bubble and actually sold their Real Estate to finance their speculations in Tulips…the early birds made money…the followers didn’t…
No Tulips and No House.Have a look at some of the country towns a couple of hours from major cities today…now we see For Sale signs…$months ago anything for sale had a Sold sticker on it. You couldn’t rent anything decent unless you paid $200pw…now take your pick at $185pw. The buyers in these towns used Sydney/Canberra properties as collateral to buy them…..some will sell at a loss…others may have to even sell the family home.
One of the earlier replies to my post suggests that they are going to Sell an option to purchase with a lease deal ” as a hedge against the impending fall in values”.This is justified they feel as the poor old client isn’t interested in prices…they just want a roof over their head that they can call their home. One of you MUST get hurt in todays market. They won’t exercise the option and be dissalusioned about Real Estate.
But there’s another “victim” around the corner.Real Estate is Fantastic…So is the share market
I’ve done both….mostly at the right time…but the times I was wrong…”OUCH”We had a saying in the share market….
” Let your loss be your lesson “.Like me back in the mid 70’s…maybe you have to experience a loss/setback before you learn.
I just wish I had a 56 year old mentor like me back then.
But as my wife of 33 years just reminded me
” You wouldn’t have listened to him back then”.Learn from my mistakes they won’t cost you a penny.
Whatever you decide….
Differentiate your service, find a niche market,
work very hard WITH Integrity and add value to your service that doesn’t cost a lot of money,but has a high perceived value to your clients.Wishing you ALL the very best.
Billfromoz.
ps. No I’m not negative…I’m the most enthusiastic, positive person I know.
[/quote]Hi Folks This may be of intrerest to people
This thread seems to be about deversifying so I thought that this may be of interest for those looking at options, I saw it on the weekend and it sounded like he was looking for Australian backers
he’s trying to keep the inventions in ausAustralians are reknowned for their inventiveness. The postage stamp, the photocopier, the ute, the black box flight recorder, the stump jump plough and the cochlear implant all sprang from the brains of clever Australians. Rural Australians are especially inventive, but getting city financiers to back them can often be so difficult that their ideas never see the light of day. But one man is trying to change all that.
http://www.abc.net.au/landlinepass it forward
I believe that one day when looking at the all ords for the last 30 years or so I noticed that the losses of 87 were restored in the next 12-18 months. i.e. if people didn’t panic or over-commit themselves all they had to do was wait a while and lose nothing.
Also, I think you will find a drop from $250,000 to $110,000 is very rare in real estate. There will always be some very high risk properties like Sydney high rise, but I can’t see the general suburban or country properties doing that. The idiots in the market can have a far greater effect on the value of a piece of paper than someone’s house.
There are 2 things I hate about shares:
1) The price often bears no relation to the value of the company – they can jump around in all sorts of random ways on a daily basis.
2) If you buy a property, everyone would say you were smart to find out everything you could about it, and to have available any information that the public or other purchasers did not. If you do the same with shares, you go to jail.“A drop from $250,000 to $110,000 is very rare in real estate.”
As opposed to what? shares doing that all the time?
Sept 11…..the all ords dropped about 10%, then rallied 25%
March 2003 (war) the all ords dropped about 10%, then rallied 25%
1987 was not a crash. It was a correction. Secondly, it was brought about by a massive rally over the year, and actually finished the year higher. Thirdly, most of the selling was done by computers with stop loss orders creating an avolanche effect. This problem has been fixed. A crash can never happen again, thanks to these changes and the PPT. Shares are CHEAP right now in Australia. Yields are higher on shares than bonds or property.
A crash can never happen againNever say never!
Rod
People often ask why real estate has gone up so much in the last few years and I really believe it has a lot to do with the glut of seminars that occurred over the last 4 years on how to get investment property for $2.67 a week or how to get the tax man to pay for your investment property. It really attracted a lot of ‘mums and dads’ out of the stock market and into the investment property market. That also seemed to be about the same time as Rich Dad, Poor Dad came on the scene…
Just before all this happened…inexperienced players got into the investment market after reading a book or two…most only “talked” about what they were “gunna do”…a lot acted and got caught up in the hype. They tried to wrap
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