Sorry freckle, not ignoring you, just a very busy last week in Japan before flying off to Israel and Europe, running around like a headless chook atm. Will get back to this thread sometime next week, after I land and settle down at my next destination.

incidentally, I met with mr Roland Thompson, director of North Asia for Credit Suisse, for lunch yesterday, and he had some very interesting observations regarding many of the issues we brought up here (of course, with him not sharing your pessimism, you'll probably label him a village idiot too ) – I got his permission to quote him, in any case, (was thinking about you initially, but might make an interview down the track out of it and publish online) so I'll post some of his thoughts, as well as my own replies to your points, once I get my mind, jetlag and notes in order )). Bear with me…

Don't be ridiculous Freckle, go back and collate all the links to news items, opinions and statistics that I've posted into this lengthy discussion, you must be either senile or, as I suspect, simply ignoring the ones that don't suit your perspective – like in the case of renewable energy ("I don't believe it'll work" was your thorough analysis of the sector once you realised your assumptions about the major players in it were completely off the mark) or service/household robotics (simply ignored the new information and moved on), your response to facts that don't suit you are to either proclaim them to be biased opinions, rantings of village idiots etc (eg, anyone who doesn't concur with your views) or simply ignoring them altogether .

as for your investment strategy – as mentioned (again…???) – to each his own. To assume that you're the only one here who "collects memories" or "lives life to the fullest", is geographically mobile and free of physical attachments, or whatever other laurels you're trying to crown yourself with here, is the most arrogant and ignorant assumption you've made in this discussion to date. I won't even begin to argue with that one, since I think it's beneath both of us, except to say that, except for collecting, cherishing and enjoying the beautiful moments this life affords me, I tend to also try and leave something behind me, for my children and other loved ones to enjoy, be it memories, experiences, values, cash, assets, connections, or whatever other treasures they (and I) may cherish. And while I enjoy spending my acquired collectibles as such, I also greatly enjoy passing the riches I've accumulated, mainly mentally but also physically, to those who come after me, be it immediate peers or more distant ones such as my community, species and planet.

So like in investment, it takes all sorts. Enjoy your roller coaster of doom ride, man, I can see you're having a fab time and, while we tend to agree on what this world is generally steering towards, I also prefer to try and leave it a better place, in between the nihilism spasms and self gratifications and the righteous eye-rolling and throwing up of arms in exasperation at the foolishness of it all. give me a break, please. That last particular high horse was a bit too high for my tastes.

The exchange rate is only an issue when the investor wishes to transfer yields back home – as mentioned time (and time, and time, and time) again – overseas property investment is a dynamic endeavor, and not to be undertaken with funds that would require liquidation in a hurry – this is as true in Japan as in any other country in the world. To think that people investing in the US, Singapore or Europe are somehow less vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations is outright wrong – people invest overseas with hedged funds that will not be needed in a hurry, and capitalize on market conditions – when the economy and rates are low, they purchase more property, renovate, or otherwise utilize their funds in the destination country.

when the situation improves, they bring their money back home and make a(nother) neat profit in the transfer. This sometimes takes one year, sometimes five, and sometimes a decade – similar to a super fund which you can't touch until you retire, only you have to go by market fluctuations in the home and destination countries instead – this is what overseas property investing is all about, and why it's so important to steer your portfolio by cash-flow rather than wild speculation, which would leave you losing money when the destination economy fluctuates (3-4% turns to -3-4%, instead of 10-12% turning to 2-6%, for instance, to take an extreme example).

The approach that dictates that one should only invest in a fail-safe, never fluctuating, rock-solid currencies and nowhere else is, quite simply, completely contrary with overseas property investment of any kind. The reason some foreign investors made a killing in the US for the past five years, to take the most common sample these days, is exactly because the economy turned to ****. And the reason they're now enjoying these profits in Australia is because it slightly recovered. This cycle will continue on and on (or seesaw on and on, however you choose to view it), with more volatility as the world becomes more and more intertwined, in my opinion (a wholly different discussion, albeit a very interesting one).

what you label as risk I see as opportunity – provided one is well positioned, not leveraged beyond recognition, and not in a hurry to liquidate any funds. This is the strategy I stick by, and advise my clients to stick by as well. It's been working fine, and I believe will continue to work fine when the JPY devalues again, for however long it may be. The same goes for US, Europe, or anywhere else – but Japan has the best potential to provide a hassle free and strife less environment of doing so, regardless of economic circumstance, in my belief.

No, i beg to differ, what this article says is that there's a wide range of mediums between the Austrian and Keynesian economic approaches regularly preached around the globe. There's no "one sure and absolute way" that works anywhere and for anyone to correct financial woes, as the last few years have demonstrated time and time again. I think this is best summed in this short observation of Krugman's –

"…That said, Japan never had the kind of employment and human disaster we've experienced since 2008…"

This in spite of the fact that the early nineties bubble burst and subsequent economic plunge should have turned them into the worlds worst civil war zone, if Greece, the Great Depression in the US, and Europe post WW2 are anything to go by. The Japanese concept of "being victims to their government's policies", as you put it, is quite different from that of other countries. While this works both ways (they'd be very hard pressed to suspect corruption or collusion with business, to name one of the downsides), it also means that they're quite far from the hands up, run for the hills, burn tires in the street that tends to happen invariably in the west at the first sign of fiscal crisis – and as a result, are also far more resilient to it, since they tend to work as a collective that stays cohesive in hard times as well as easier ones, and doesn't break into chaos at the first sign of trouble.

as freckle puts it, the economies of the world are a seesaw structure (I see it more as a circle running back on itself, but from a subjective timeframe perspective the differences are minute). If a depreciating yen will help exports for a time, the Japanese people, including domestic bond holders and savers, will take it in stride, and wait for better times, guaranteed. There will be no national or financial collapse, rioting in the streets, or even bank rushes. There will be muted complaint, bitterness, and resignation, then a tightening (what is called here the "shoganai" mentality – very loosely translatable as "ce la vi" or "what can we do", normally followed by unbelievable perseverance. Something to learn from, for those, like Krugman's, who have the balls to admit when they're wrong).

Incidentally, this is, again, why I believe the renewable energy initiative will be successful here as well, as mentioned earlier – because in this case, as opposed to the above, the Japanese public has actively, loudly and internationally spoken against its government policies – this was enough of an event (and you won't see this happening on the financial front, I promise you) for Japan inc. to take notice and invest a huge proportion of its wealth in renewable energy initiatives that are rapidly transforming it into a global clean-tech nation of not only world leadership, but gargantuan proportions even in an absolute perspective. Again, to ignore the significance of the Fukushima event and its effect on Japanese mentality is a severe error. Things are changing in Japan, and government debt, while not the least of Japan's urgent issues, is also very far from the top among them.

Here's another commentator who doesn't agree with the "follow foreign example at all costs" policy, stating, and rightfully so, that it hasn't exactly served the rest of the world all that well, and also pointing to the fact that Japan has done well (and not "barely survived", as freckle puts it) on the last few rounds of economic strife –

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/japan-shows-the-world-how-to-come-out-of-economics-of-stagnation/articleshow/18016340.cms

No argument there, I'm just wondering if "over the next 20 years" will be sufficient if things go south in Asia.

as things stand now, if there's no demand for resources in the next year or three, I hardly see Australia being able to offer much else. I could be wrong of course, I'm no expert on Australia, but the media and government aren't the only ones raising these alarm bells, some fairly "switched on cookies", as you like to call them, have been saying the same things – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/australia-facing-a-hard-landing-andy-xie-2012-10-25

Yes, Japan has deflation, low prices, Chinese prostitutes (although, the amount of prostitution here compared to most other countries in the world is ridiculously minute), migrants and temp workers – and also $20,000 properties generating 10-15% Pre-tax return. What's your point?

Ok, we've gone from "dancing on the edge of a cliff", to plain "crazy", and finally to "somewhat premature". Or, in other words, Freckle wants to buy at the bottom, and anywhere else has too much risk for his delicate palate. Well, guess what, the only way to identify a bottom (not that such a thing even exists on the long term, there are only respective peaks really, with market forces being cyclic), is once it's passed and starts heading up again. To follow through with your logic means never buying or selling any currency – but that's just not the way it works with foreign exchange. You buy at point X, don't sell until things go back to >X, and in the interim try to make that money work for you in the new environment, until such a point in time when you can take it back to Y with profit (that is, unless ALL YOU DO is Forex, and you try to capitalise on every tiny little movement – not my cup of tea, but there are also those who make nice fortunes doing exactly this, and i don't judge them.

As mentioned (far, far) above, my type of investing is not something you'd want do with funds you may need liquidated in a hurry, but property investment, fortunately, is not a hurry game, so no problem there. When I purchase yens, I know I can afford to wait, whether it's 1, 5 or 10 years, before I'll need it back, if at all, so no issue there. While it's in yens and things are down is usually also the best time to buy property at good prices, so win-win all around. Different to your "sit on it until conditions are optimal", I know, but it takes all sorts, and that's fine with me too. I prefer to be more active and hedged, so I can utilise conditions in Australia, Japan or anywhere else I may be positioned, as they happen – you prefer to sit on your gold and silver and AUD and wait for that super duper prime optimal scenario before you act – both fine approaches by my criteria, btw, so I suggest we leave it at that.

That's your perspective. Mine is that this is pretty normal play for a world that's becoming more globalised by the day – you fart in Australia, and the dollar drops three points in the US, etc etc – again, if you wait for things to "stabilise" it might be your grand-grand-children, up on the Martian colonies, who may be able to invest in a single, stable, uni-galactic currency like "in the good old days". I prefer to move a bit earlier than that, for better and worse, but we're rehashing the same argument as above, seriously, let's just leave it at that, why don't we?

Again, plain wrong – http://nation.time.com/2013/01/03/japans-not-quite-so-nationalist-leader/- I think you're mixing up Pre-elections rhetoric with post-elections pragmatism. Look again.

Never said any of the above, read back and you may notice the parts where I said these are one of a whole arsenal of strategies in the mix, and also the part where I said Japan's an expert at turning challenge to opportunity. Don't extremize (just made that word up) my arguments to make them sound like what you'd like to hear me say, just so you can try to appear neutral and paint me as an extremist – that's demagoguery at its most basic and easiest to refute form, you're smarter than that.

Thank you, that's exactly what I said, and exactly the reason why this "sharp and immediate spike" the article threatens won't happen – because there's a dynamic balance here between what the CB wants consumers to do (spend) and between what Japanese people's, particularly those of the older (ageing) population tend to do so much better than Westerners do (save). In that respect, Japan's ageing population is actually a boon in disguise – their increasing numbers mean that the more the younger generation buys designer handbags, the more they're being offset by the increasingly older population's refusal to spend. Again, a healthy balance in my book.

Ah, that I would have a dollar for every would-be, switched on cookie of an analyst who's predicted Japan's demise "in 3 years" for the last two decades or so. And again, as mentioned above, you sit on your hands and funds and wait for it to happen while hoarding your savings – I'll try to capitalise on things as they pan out. Different approaches, both viable. Can we call it a day now?

Not in my view. In my view the question is how hard the inevitable hits on global economy (and there is more than just one additional hit coming in the next decade or so, I'm guessing) will affect Japan, how prepared it will be, and what measures will be taken before, during and after those hits. I have faith in Japan, you have faith in no one, I have willingness to ride things out with them when they happen, you have willingness to do nothing and put your money nowhere near any economy and stash it all under your mattress – again, both legit, let it go.

No, I think it's more that I realise that there's no similarity whatsoever between physical jeopardy and well-hedged, distributed investments in a variety of vehicles. I'm happier to try and capitalise on events if and when they occur, but won't let the potential or hint of any possible downturn stop me from being alive and trying to make the best of the world around me in the interim. Beats sitting in the dark and crying "wolf" till one of the myriad of wolves comes around (US, Europe, Japan), just so I can say"told ya so" and feel all good about myself. I prefer to lead a bit more of an active life, but maybe that's just me.

Seriously, man, can we call it a day now? We've moved from facts, to speculation, to pure philosophy…this has got to be getting boring for people (myself included). Can't we just agree to disagree?

Having serious issues with this new forum interface…would appreciate if the moderators could delete those last nonsense comments ("Enter" refuses to work in this screen, for some reason posting instead of line breaking – doesn't happen in any other website). I'll type my reply in a text editor and paste it here later…