These guys are banking on you taking their guarantee for the next 4-5 years – you will, indeed, make 25% – they'll make much more – then, if and when everything blows over, as it likely will, you're left with nothing, and they're laughing all the way to the bank (because they haven't built these places to last much longer in any case, and guess how much less than your purchase cost it cost to build – profit no. 2). If you're really into that sort of potentially here today gone tomorrow type of investment, go for Aussie mining towns – you'll find building standards are more than slightly higher – and if you pick a good industrial zone, and not only mine-dependant one, you might even keep getting decent returns out of it when the mine dries up. 

Totally with ya there, that's why we invest mostly in Japan, where the social fabric is probably the best you can get, or in non-tenant dependant forms in other countries…how do you get around the lack of cashflow in Aus though? I know Terry and others here mentioned sub-dividing (whole lotta work, but probably well worth it) or mining/industrial towns (which strike me as a bit risky as they may blow over within a few years) – any other ideas on breaking that annoying 3-5% pre-tax ceiling that seems to be the norm here (at least for the more attractive areas)?

Cattleya – just curious – why do you think Australia (pretty wide area compared to London is better investment potential?

Can't open the file – sounds interesting, would love to have a peek and check out the differences/similarities to our own sheets.

Brilliant textbook research and process, Joel. These are exactly the right steps one should take – and it also illustrates the importance of ground-work – once you've spent the time and money to lay down the infrastructure for all future purchases/sales and remote management and have the right people in place representing you, you can pounce on any good deal that comes along, wherever and whenever in the world you may be at the time. We did the same thing when we started out in Japan – spent a good few months in meeting, setups and research on the ground – and are now reaping the results for ourselves and our clients without having to set foot in a realtor's office unless there's a compelling reason to. Not that we don't visit regularly (we actually spend about half of every year there), but it's not for the purpose of, or under the pressure of, a due by date of contract signing, inspection, money transfer etc – more structured, scheduled visits for general management and upkeep, as well as to research and explore new areas.

Not sure what you mean by "rely" – there are ways to verify potential advisors, professionals, business partners etc in every country – and also ways to verify your recourse in case things go south. Clients do this to us every day, and we do the same to others in other countries. "Jumping into bed" with anyone who sounds promising is extreme folly, but avoiding all foreign environments for fear of language or cultural barriers is the other extreme. Incidentally, speaking "the same language" didn't seem to do much good to those swindled in the US, as we've been reading here – I've yet to see myself, or anyone else, get screwed over like this in Japan, Singapore or Hong-Kong, for instance, to name just a few of those "scary foreign places" which are far more regulated and safe to purchase in compared to the US, to name one "comfy English country".

Thank god for the voice of reason. And not just in the US, anywhere in the world. On the upside, there are sooooooo many great cashflow deals in so many countries because of the flocks of speculators who ignore them and buy "that super-duper-prime-location minus 5% negatively geared but hey wait for that growth to hit". More and more of these buyers every year, in spite of everything, all leveraged to the gills – causing bubbles and mini bubbles to burst again and again and economies to take more and more hits – and producing even more great cashflow buys year after year. Personally, I'm loving it.

On the upside, we've been seeing some delightful condo units and even holiday houses, at very attractive prices in and around Niigata, just west of Fukushima, and even as far as Hokkaido, to the far North. If a getaway home on the slopes was always your dream, now could be a good time – providing you're not bringing the lil' ones with ya, and are over 55  (Mod, this is meant as a joke, not advertising  Real listings though.)

There's no "end", Freckle, it's cyclic. No one in their right mind invests in real-estate for a 3-year "hit" (barring flippers and short-salers and serious gamblers). When times are rough, we buy, and cash in when things recover, to start all over again, locally or abroad. You're apocalyptic view of events in this case, as it was and still is with the US market, is to spread panic and doomsday visions among those leveraged into those markets with every up, down, top and turn. Maybe it's a cash investor thing, but we don't see these cyclic fluctuations as something that makes a huge difference in the long run.

Here’s a more rational view of what’s happening atm – http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/04/08/reuters-tv-22-year-jgb-bubble-may-be-about-to-burst?videoId=242103887&videoChannel=117766 (I know, I know, they’re all idiots if they don’t share the “oh woe be upon us, the dark pits of financial hell are spitting hellfire, the end is nigh” philosophy you exhibit every time a currency fluctuates anywhere in the world or economic turmoil kicks in.

You've truly digressed there, Freckle.

sorry to have been away for so long, can't really take an awful lot of time to comment, as we've been quite busy. For better or worse (I know which side of the assumption you're banked on, don't answer that one), equity money is moving to real estate for lack of dividends, and Asia real estate money is moving to Japan for fear of more cooling measures (and a few other places – see here – http://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/publications/emerging-trends-in-real-estate-2013.jhtml), and we're happily copping it.

rents in Tokyo are on the up, vacancies on the drop, and Fukuoka city, where we and our clients have been purchasing extensively since 2011, is one of the first cities in the country to experience land prices on the rise again finally. Not sure where that rise will end up on the two-decade scale, but on the short term, five year scale it's the best we've seen.

Abe's attempt to kick-start growth through inflation, with fanfare and printing machines at full steam, may be crude, but not really that different to the rest of the world's best efforts and, considering his efforts to negotiate Fukushima fallout (spreading it all over the country to "share the burden"), is probably doing the best he can to just keep exports going with the yen pressed low, while generating enough head winds to possibly live up to his inflation target by 2015. I honestly don't think he (or anyone with half a chance at becoming PM in his stead) can do much more without some handy crystal ball in their back pockets.

interesting times but, for those of us vested in property, Japan's super high yields and the potential for a true revival if the property markets finally bottomed out, coupled with the unbeatable reliable and honest tenant and business environment wins hands down (not over your methods, I know, just for the rest of us RE geeks out there).