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  • Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    And it is exactly because this racism exists everywhere (in Japan, if anything, its as toned down, non-aggressive and non-violent as racism can get, even when it does occur), that using this blog as an argument in a financial debate is ridiculous. I'm not taking his criticism personally, he's entitled to his opinion – and like he's experienced X, others may have experienced Y (as I have). What I'm in hackles about is your attempted use of his subjective experience to implicate an entire culture and an entire country's financial future. As mentioned, you're clutching at straws.

    Incidentally, I'd love to hear how you've reached the confusion that "Japanese have no problem criticizing others"- from my experience, they're among the most conflict averse, respectful and mild creatures on the planet…can't even say "no" to a dodgy salesman without apologizing about a hundred times in the process, so your observation strikes me as the complete opposite of everything I know about them. 

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
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    This was a reply to your "government and BOJ can't do a thing" argument – it was meant to show that there are far more ways to drag a country out of difficult financial times without relying on governments and central banks.  First and foremost, the Japanese can (and will) stop consuming like crazed rabbits, should the need arise (and it hasn't yet, because things aren't nearly as catastrophic as you portray them to be). If you look at what companies, individuals and organizations have been doing to compensate for the drop in power supply that the nuclear shutdowns have forced on them, you'll see a fine example of this – http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/lesson-in-leadership-japans-bosses-sweat-it-out/

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
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    In regards to blogs about social issues, racism, xenophobia etc – I have sooooo much to say about this guy's observations and opinions and his understanding of Japanese mentality and culture – but I hardly think this is the forum to raise these issues. Suffice it to say that to take this guy's opinion and experience, as unpleasant as they sound, as an indication of what Japan is like for foreigners as a whole and why raising immigration as an economic solution has no future is clutching at straws. 

    Lets not get into this argument, please, as its endless and completely subjective. I can show you a gazillion blogs by foreigners in Japan who experience QUITE different sentiments, as well as a gazillion ones similar to this. It has no bearing on this discussion, and serves very little – it's certainly not as "revealing" as you may think, quite the contrary. I've also lived in Japan and sent my child to public education institutions here – my experience is substantially different to his, lets leave it at that for now.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
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    Post Count: 523

    Incidentally, here are a few of the things the Japanese people, as opposed to government and BOJ, will most likely do, as they have in the past, if and when things go bad – taken from the comments to one of these types of apocalyptic forecasts published on the "Japan Times" (in English, by a foreigner, but rings quite true)- 

    "…Initially, the Japanese will cut back on stupid purchases like designer bags, couture, cupcakes for their pets, pachinko, and idol CDs.

    Idle farmland will be put back into use and with proper management, the country will become self-sufficient in food. Imports of useless things like sugar and coffee will cease and the publics health will improve.

    Barely anything will be wasted. PET bottles and plastic bags and anything watertight will become essential and reused over and over again. Clothes will not be thrown away unless unwearable (no – corduroy is not unwearable, just not cool)

    Japans main cities have an advantage due the ease of cycling and network of highways. Even if trucks are not available, goods will still be shipped by bicycle, just slower and essentials only.

    The depreciated Yen will be mostly disregarded and a "LETS" based system will support local areas who are skilled and have resources but little money. Japan has a very skilled workforce and well-established institutions. Just because the economy is bad, it doesnt mean these important factors will be lost.

    Japans centralised and stupid government will become irrelevant and local areas will become self-governing and will no longer rely on "gasoline-less police." Rather, local volunteer militias will be formed to protect the surrounds as well as Japans national treasures.

    Women will play important roles in the local economy by becoming the backbone of local manufacturing. The loss of public service jobs (women will be the first to be sacked, this is Japan) and will pool their talents, time and knowledge to produce clothes, furnishings, metal goods, gardens, candles, soaps and crockery.

    The military will be reduced by the central government but martial law will be impossible due to the sheer numbers of Japanese people. The militaries of China and North Korea will have no inclination to attack Japan for the same reason and because their own situation will be just as perilous.

    The Japanese will never allow themselves to become Somalia. The pride of this nation has brought it to where it is today and it would be like saying that one day Donald Trump would be on the street living under a bag. Too much knowledge and too much honour…"

    just a few more of the "bullets" in the Japanese arsenal for bad times, if and when they hit – there ARE alternatives to the "mad max" scenarios.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Freckle wrote:

    Interesting articles from the point of view they almost always ignore the elephant in the room…example of Japanese government and or BOJ intervention that has or will turn this impending debt crises around…

    I don't agree that these articles ignore the problem, on the contrary – I find that they address these problems squarely, and claim that, for one thing, its blown out of proportion, and that releasing central bank deflationary policy for example, in order to "let the market take its natural course", to name one existing policy suggestion that some think may help, isn't exactly the magical cure that the IMF and various central governments around the world hail it to be. Or, in other words, yes, Japan's government has borrowed extensively from its citizens (and will probably do more of the same for as long as global economy remains in the doldrums) – but so what? Or to quote "mindful money" – "…yields can go higher when domestic investors are unable to fund budget deficit fully – but it is highly doubtful that such a scenario would become a debt crisis. It’s far more likely that the Japanese Yen will depreciate strongly for a while – as it has done in the past – without any major implications for the economy as a whole long-term – only to rise again when appropriate corrections or global market forces allow it to…"

    not that Japan should sit and wait for these conditions to occur – on the contrary, it should do all in its power to support this scenario – and it plans to. The same links also claim that yen depreciation, for instance, is exactly what's needed now to re-ignite export (something that Australia, for all its merits, hasn't worked out yet, btw), with which I completely agree. Incidentally, Abe, recently re-elected, while not my favorite PM in the world, is what, in my opinion and that of various media outlets worldwide, kicked off that current depreciation (coupled with some attractive stock market hikes) – his doctrine of dropping the nationalistic approach his party has adopted in the past, in order to re-strengthen ties with China severely hurt over the islands fiasco, kick off more public works to strengthen disaster preparedness and stimulate the economy further, (quite different to "printing money till the cows come home", which you wrongly suggest japan has been doing), offer the worlds most attractive renewable energy tariffs, in order to make Japan the world's leader in renewable energy (http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/japan-emerging-as-worlds-new-renewable-energy-leader/), which has already began to draw substantial foreign investment into the country as well (Spain's "Gestamp Solar" has just announced a $1.5 bil project in northern japan, and i believe they're only the first of many, now that al of Japan's tech giants are so heavily invested in solar and wind power), extend retirement age to lower the pressure on pension funds and allow them to slightly recuperate, while at the same time raising taxes (I was greatly relieved to hear Abe's maintaining the DPJ's policy of gradually re-introducing goods and services taxes, increasing property taxes back to their original values, etc) – all of the above are a great combination of means to those ends.

    the approach you try to perpetrate, as if there is a singular "magic wand" that someone can wave to make things better, and Japan just hasn't found one yet,or has tried all magic wands to find that they don't work, is a very black and white oriented view of economy – just as Japan's borrowing from its pension funds isn't the only reason it got to this state (and I still don't buy the doctrine that claims public debt is the only measure of an impending financial crisis, that's also an very narrow and extreme view of the world in my opinion), there isn't one particular solution that'll fix the problem. There has to be a collective of measures, trials and errors, that react to internal and external conditions and are fine tuned over time – which is exactly what the administration is trying to pull off (hopefully with a bit more of a parliamentary majority, to actually be able to move stuff forward this time around).

    Freckle wrote:
    …maintain the status quo in a declining/aging population as pension demand accelerates..

    You say you don't believe xenophobic Japan will allow more immigration – fortunately you're plain wrong. Immigration laws have already gone through one major overhaul, and there's another in the pipes, the amount of foreigners one sees in the streets of not only Tokyo, but far away cities like Fukui and Fukuoka is growing by the day (and I'm not referring to Chinese and Koreans either), and even the US ambassador, recently interviewed in Tokyo, is expressing amazement at the amount of entrepreneurship and cross-cultural initiatives that have been taking pace in the country recently (http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/japan-opens-up-to-foreigners/ – http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_21708023/q-us-ambassador-japan-john-roos-entreprenurial-culture). And I'm sure you realize people migrating to Japan aren't doing it for the marvelous social benefits, like so many of them do in Australia, for instance – they work, hard, build families and stimulate not only the economy, but the country's industries and, most significantly, its non-procreating society in many magnificent ways.

    Turning challenge to opportunity, another thing Japan is extremely good at, also means that the robotics industry, boosted here tremendously in recent years due to the tough requirements placed on the country's resources by the ageing population, is also becoming a huge export (and again, yen depreciation is only helping in that regard when it occurs). So are smart and electric cars. There are just so many bullets Japan still has in its arsenal, and only a minority of them have anything to do with government intervention and BOJ policies, that your attempt at portraying the end of the world as we know it in this regard is just ludicrous in my view.Ccertainly, Japan has its issues, xenophobia and public debt being just two of the bigger ones among them – but the apocalypse you're predicting is only one of a myriad of scenarios that can play out here – and not a very likely one in my opinion.

    And again, as mentioned (at least we agree on that much) – there's really nowhere else I'd rather be active and invested in at this global day and age. The alternatives, from a financial, personal and social perspective, are far worse in my view when things go downhill. but again, I'm biased – I love this place with all my heart, and have huge faith in it.

    yes, hedging is investing 101 basics (and believe me, I do, although not in gold and silver, my heart's a bit too faint for that one, I prefer something far less volatile and liquid, such as real estate in other countries or plain ol' cash deposits bearing reasonable interest, and easily accessible for exchange rate fluctuation action when its profitable, but to each his own)- but so is the long-term view. Real estate investment at its best (as opposed to wild speculation and gambling) is a long term endeavor. A year or three of price drops or currency depreciation is nothing to fear – thinking that it won't happen is preposterous, and a sure recipe for disaster. Sure, the yen may depreciate for a year or two (although there are still enough ups and downs in those periods to make some nice profits or quickly bring income home, too) – but the huge advantage in Japan is the cashflow. When you're making 10-15% p/a pre-tax in yen, with money that you're in no hurry to liquidate, and on investments that, to begin with, are at $20-50k a piece (which means you can spread them out over 10 properties to the typical Australian 1-2, for instance), you really have very little to lose – even if the yen depreciates for a decade (which I very much doubt it will).

    if, on the other hand, you're investing for your day to day income, and your family starves if you can't withdraw your rental income on a monthly basis, with no reserves, alternative sources of income and/or exit strategies, you're in the pits – but I honestly don't think this has anything to do with which country you're invested in, and everything to do with being plain stupid. I try to belong to the first school of thought, and strongly advise my clients to do the same.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
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    In your favorite style and spirit of linking to graphs, articles and presentations that support your theories, here are a few of our own, that we've been collating for new and existing clients over the past year –

    http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/busting-japans-impending-debt-crisis-myth/ ("business insider")

    http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/japans-miraculous-economy/ ("mindful money")

    http://www.nippontradings.com/japan-real-estate/japan-economy-set-to-soar/ ("Reuters")

    there are more, of course, but the main point is, as others have pointed out above, that Japan has quite a few other ways of dealing with the current state of affairs – and the "hasn't made a difference for the last two decades" is really a double-edged sword – according to this rationale, Japan should have dived nose-first into currency collapse and become India or myanmar a decade or two ago, rather than go into a mild recession and come out of it as resilient as ever – yet somehow, miraculously, they're quite far from it.

    yes, I'm biased, in the sense that I'm a firm believer in the Japanese people and their resiliency, creativity and hard-working, sincere mentality, and believe that they'll find a way to persevere (even without adopting IMF policies, imagine that). What this actually is, i love to read assumptions about, but leave to wiser folk than myself (the links above point to a few options, as have the comments on this thread). as for me, I deal in real-estate, and advise my clients to always be positioned with ample reserves and minimal leverage, so that they're able to take advantage of current conditions, and not play with money they'll need back in a hurry (unpopular concept for property investments, I know, considering so many folk out there try to liquidate all their belongings at the first sign of price drops and lose their pants in the process, or leverage themselves to kingdom come and lose everything when the **** hits the fan). Incidentally, this happens in any country at some point in time over every decade or two – I'd rather be in Japan when this happens than any other place in the world, any day of the week. They know how to deal with crisis without resorting to doomsday and Armageddon scenarios far better than us whiners and selfish "save yourself, screw all others" in the west ;)

    As a side note, I hardly believe that someone who, according to their own testimony firmly believes in hoarding precious metals and their related stocks and industry assets (which someone less polite might label "dealing in fear and paranoia") has any interest in making any other investment seem attractive, and would most likely do their best to continuously convince anyone who'll listen that "the worst is yet to come, beware the impending global meltdown, it's only just begun", etc etc. but we already had the pessimistic vs optimistic vs realist discussion, maybe we can save ourselves the trouble this time, since we're both not likely to change our tune in this regard.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Look back through your posts, I'm sure you'll work it out, you're a smart guy. You also might be able to work out what "I've got better things to do with my time" means. If not, ask someone else because, as mentioned, I've got better things to do with my time. 

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    My intent (and that of my clients) is not to play fluctuations, but to make the best of any situations as they arise. As for the state of Japanese economy and its future, your opinion and attempts at crystalballing the future is one of many, as previously discussed here time and time again.

    Forgive me if I don't enter another argument with you, freckle, but your way of conducting them doesn't sit well with me. I find you aggressive and offensive, and I've got better things to do with my time, as well as more civilized people to have debates with.

    all the best.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    I don't get the idea behind posting gross figures (meaningless, except for very specific tax purposes) – but I'm even more lost as to how anyone can fail to ask whether figures are gross or net. Our website clearly specifies "pre-tax return" and "all running and purchase costs included", and still, it's the first question anyone asks when they contact us.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    When I was trying to inform people about our January investors tour of Japan, the post was moved to the "meet ups" forum, which I don't think anybody accesses much, judging from the lack of responses.

     got far better results and bookings from our LinkedIn group, Facebook page and clients mailing list – many of those on the list are members here, but didn't seem to know anything about that particular forum, so moderators might want to reconsider its use or at least make it a bit more visible.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Yen dropped from 79-81 per aud several months ago to 84-86, hovered for awhile, and now at 88-89. Our clients (and me, piggybacking on their transfers ;)) have been moving funds to Japan continuously over the last 2 months, even if no immediate purchase in sight, even if just to capitalize. good few hundreds/thousands to be made on those fluctuations when they happen, as long as you can afford to wait and aren't using funds you'll need in a hurry anytime soon.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Thoughtful and comprehensive post, Alex, thank you. diverse exit strategies are a must in any market, and should never rely on whether speculations become reality or not – giving this issue the ample consideration it deserves separates the professionals from the fly-by-nighters, in my opinion.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    @zmagen
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    Here's to a warm, loving and profitable year :)

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Ah, finally, the voice of localized experience and reason. Thanks for chiming in, Scott, it's a refreshing change from the "beware the evil European property market" voices so common here! Of course there are risks and particular issues to look out for, but which country doesn't have those? That's what DD is all about – making informed choices, as opposed to knee jerk reactions.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Not sure what you mean by "just asking questions"- this is how potential clients learn about a particular industry or opportunity, then decide if they wish to invest in it – once they have complete information. I for one am happy to answer questions and provide information for months on end, before, during, after or instead of the investment cycle – it's part of my responsibility as a service provider – to make sure the potential client is informed, comfortable with their decision, and makes the best choice for their criteria (which sometimes mean they won't be investing with us, and that's perfectly fine too).

    to expect someone to hand their life savings to a company without making darn sure it will be put to appropriate use is insane, and a recipe for disaster down the track ("WHAT??? You never told me I will have to pay for INSURANCE!!! I want my money back, you swindler!") – I'll take the tire kickers over this scenario any day of the week.

    as for "squeezing me for knowledge", sorry Kyler, I normally agree with you on most things, but that's just ridiculous. I take pride in my knowledge and expertise, and am grateful when its recognized as such. Industry leaders and power networkers achieve the best results and reputation exactly BECAUSE they are happy to provide their expertise without expecting anything in return. There are no secrets, only information flow. I queried quite a few US suppliers here on behalf of my associate, who was considering buying property there at the time. She ended up choosing to invest elsewhere, but I've since referred at least a dozen other individuals and firms to those three or four most responsive and candid providers because they were exactly that – responsive and candid. If that's not immediate and direct value for their time, I don't know what is.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    You really shouldn't, Alex, as my initial reply to the question implied, and as I wrote here on more than one occasion. There are great operators (I'd guess yourself included) that I've referred people to time and time again, operating in the US.

    its just guys like these that give a country a bad name – but they exist everywhere (yes, even in japan, although so far I've only run across one of those here, they're very rare).

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Facilitator wrote:

    Dont buy off anyone who buys the property rehabs then onsells to you….your paying above true value.

    I find that to be a very generalizing and unfair statement, Mark. It's like saying "don't use a realtor because they charge". There are excellent turnkey operators out there (quite a few reputable ones on these forums too) who save international investors weeks, months or even years of time, resources and trial and error disasters, and some of them resell at very reasonable prices, based on their experience, teams and local know how, which helps them do the rehab at far less than it would cost the average joe (particularly the out of town average joe).

    if you perform thorough DD and pick the right turnkey operator, you can get a great investment, even if its not "a bargain" (and I, for one, am very wary of "great bargains" even in my own market, let alone three continents away), often already tenanted and fully managed, with a fraction of the hassle and headaches associated with the DIY route. Well and truly worth compromising on 2-5% net returns or whatever it boils down to in every specific case for the foreign investor, who just wants to park their money abroad without having to worry too much about deal mining, management, rehabs, finding tenants, etc etc.

    Choosing to go with a turnkey operator is a matter of investor criteria and preferred management style, nothing as clear cut as a "do" or "don't", in my opinion.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Any more news about that one? Hoax or not?

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Nigel, are whole  blocks higher cash flow than diverse, sparse properties, with the owner taking on building maintenance costs  factored in?

    if it's anything like what we found in Japan, I'd say the only value in owning the entire building would be redevelopment/rebuild and renovation potential, but I'm wondering if its any different in the US or Australia?

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Thought back upon this thread when I read this today – http://thailand-business-news.com/real-estate/42175-real-estate-in-florida-and-thailand-same-same-or-different

    I love Thailand, don't get me wrong, but Florida it ain't :))

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

Viewing 20 posts - 181 through 200 (of 483 total)