kong71286 wrote:
And with many experts predicting +$50 this year I am very excited about being part of this BULL market

Yup Silver has been a bullet for 7 months. Expect some buying opportunities during significant pullbacks (if you are confident it will run in the medium to long term). I too prefer the more nimble investment opportunities…[Read more]

Hi Beedie, I doubt I'll go to Steve's market update in Brisbane on March 9. I honestly don't see any data that changes my earlier views. I am not interested in passive property investing currently because I don't think future CG or yields will be competitive against other investments.Jason, there's undoubtedly regional opportunities due to…[Read more]

AUSPROP wrote:
oh is this where everyone has gone. maybe Dazz could be enticed back here…. full circle

Hey AP. No, not everyone came here. Only me it seems. I think Bill.L posted on the new Australian Property Forum a while back.Dazz isn't active anywhere I am aware of….probably off building his real world empire. And Sunfish is back on…[Read more]

Hi Mr Michael. In 2011, I'll continue to read widely and deeply on what really drives house prices, and post about it. I want to come to a better understanding of money, credit supply, and the effects of banking deregulation.  Several at Somersoft (High Equity, Tom) had reasonable insight, but imho fell into the trap of thinking that foreign…[Read more]

What's happening with housing supply??? Well, – NSW cannot beat pre 2004 levels. – Vic is still rising, thanks to greenfields being released after the govt did a 180. – Qld is still down after being kicked by GFC. – SA is busy providing houses for all the locals who are now not moving to Qld. – WA is falling off a cliff for the second time in 3…[Read more]

Housing Finance CommitmentsThe trends for Qld and WA are a lot weaker than NSW and Vic. Qld commitments have dropped to 2001 levels and WA to 2000 levels. The decrease in commitments since preGFC are:NSW 27.5%, Vic 13%, Qld 33%, WA 31%

Charts from Aussie Macro MomentsTotal listings is quite revelatory regarding the weakness in the Qld market. Considering the smaller population, Qld now has more listings than Vic and NSW. I'd say this has something to do with the discretionary nature of the Sunshine, Gold and Fraser Coast markets, and the more recent weakness in Brisbane.There's…[Read more]

All charts from RPData Qld and WA lead the fall in building approvals. Has to be due to  the banks not wanting to lend in Bris and Perth moreso. If prices stay flat or fall, at least rental yields improve quicker. FHB activity is stronger in some states than others. In order of strength : Vic, WA, NSW, Qld, Tas, SA, NT, ACTPopulation Growth…[Read more]

Beedie, of course, the best fiction is based on true life  I can see the govt will eventually yet again have to intervene to stop house prices dropping dramatically in a short period…..presumably when foreign credit contracts, even moderately. ….that means another govt backed guarantee for Aussie bank foreign borrowing. Socialize the losses,…[Read more]

beedie wrote:
WW I have a strong suspicion that we already there my friend …… from my own and my different contacts personal experience with properties on the market at present  For any one interested  have a look on this site. It’s a guide to days on the market  http://www.refindhouseprices.com/

Thanks Beedie. I suspect you are right t…[Read more]

Dan42 wrote:
The 'Housing Commitments v IR' is really interesting. Goes to show that it prices could be severely affected without huge rate rises. Next year should be very interesting, especially if rates rise as predicted.Thx Dan. I should have put median prices on the same chart. I think what the 2004-2007 anomaly represents is the further…[Read more]

When Australia's premier skin in the game property permabull Chris Joye changes his tack (from ever upwards), you have to believe the market isn't going up in the near future. Some of his recent charts showing the market has flatlined. I don't know of any free data showing cap city 'time on the market' (and REAs are secretive about such things) so…[Read more]

This is an interesting chart of housing finance commitments and the standard variable interest rate inverted. I've inverted the rate to more clearly highlight the negative correlation between rates  and prices, that is prices move down when rates move up. Interestingly, the green shaded area of the early noughties, is the only sustained period of…[Read more]

Note the unprecedented higher frequency and amplitude of negative month on month growth in Brisbane's median value. It might be expected considering the unprecedented growth in the early noughties and that prices have to eventually revert to average debt serviceability and wage growth.

thx beedie. I see cap city property growth averaging  -5% to 5% pa in nominal terms over the next 5 years. will all depend on cost of foreign credit, which I expect to tighten eventually. But that doesn't mean I am a permabear. I'll be keeping an eye out for distressed sellers, particularly on Somersoft forum, and buying something that adds…[Read more]

Thanks Ben, appreciate you saying that. And hello LR. Good to see you here keeping the b's honest. Yes, KeithJ, Sim, and puppet cheer squad must be smurking loudly after finally getting rid of another motley crew of independent researchers / thinkers incapable of mindlessly ramping property. Their Lord and Master has taught them well – "It doesn't…[Read more]

beedie wrote:
Agree in the fast turnover approach  WW  need to keep the momentum going good times or bad otherwise we do nothing…. and experience tells us doing nothing produces nothing…agree beedie……..and early birds get the worm….so always ear to the ground re infrastructure changes. a savvy active investor shouldn't see any sur…[Read more]

Qlds007 wrote:
I do agree however i think the opportunities will increase if you hang and wait your time with a few more rate increases.

Thanks Richard. Fast turnover will be the first thing we'll be looking at  next year, maybe a quick corner lot boundary  realignment and flick, uncomplicated by a slide. low risk low cost stuff.  They se…[Read more]

Yes I am in Brisbane. The slow down seems to have been more pronounced and early here than Syd, Cbr, Mel. Be interesting to see how things unfold in the next few months nationally.

duckster wrote:
Winston – People (the herd) only know that Property only goes up –

Yes, a lot of people (especially over at Somersoft) are punch drunk on the last 10 years of growth.I wouldn't touch a Brisbane site that could not be developed substantially (unbeknownst to the vendor) at the moment. Listings in Brisbane have gone up on average…[Read more]