Richmond
we wont even make it to our historical 9th position this year. How can we bring this back to housing?investing. Oh yes, its been so full on i havn’t even kept up with the footy much since round 8.
westan

a report prepared by MLC (Not Methodist Ladies College), perhaps an organization with a vested interest in the stockmarket. Even at the end of the article the article it backs away from the headlines.
By the way i’m impressed with the speed you got back with. But the actual figures from the Victorian Valuer General doesn’t show a 30% drop you have been misinformed or maybe you had your head stuck in that sand. By the way I don’t have a cent in Sydney or Melbourne realestate.
Crashy you are very negative all the time.
how about sharing some of your stock tips. i gave mine on this forum which was IGOO which has performed very well since my post i think it was about 24c (i bought at 21c) today its 36c not bad for afortnight. tomorrow it will be higher (i expect and hope).
westan

Hi richmond

the properties i’m buying at present has at least a 20% return on cash, and thats with a 20% deposit. The Yeild is 17%, that is why i’m selling a few of my properties that have gone up but the rent is still the same, so on current figures they return about 7.5%.
regards westan
PS what can we do about our footy team talk about a low return 0%. to think, i beleived we could have made the finals at about round 8. Shows what a lack of judgement i have. Perhaps a warning not to listen to any investing advise i have also.

Hi housesonly (not) as aussie says, and all others
Firstly i don’t have a problem with you saying the market is overheated or a bubble or whatever. i’ve thought the same myself and have said so. The point you make about a drop of excess of 20-30%, is what i want to challenge and the logic of why the drop will happen.
You claim “People only have to look back at Melbourne 10 years ago to remember the correction that the property market went through there. It was in the order of 20 to 30% as well”. Once again you quote Crashy without checking the facts.
This is not true i lived in Melbourne during this time and the market didn’t drop anywhere like you said. Now the actual figures from the valuer General on actual sales.
The Median Price in 1988 $138k, 1989 $167K, 1990 $163K, 1991 $154k, 1992 $152, 1993 $153, 1994 $161. Where’s the 20-30% drop?
Secondly, your logic about why prices will drop from your first post, well my previous arguement stands, and mathematically i’m correct. Please quote your base figure unless you have just heard someone say it somewhere.
The figures for Victoria’s growth in population for last year was 68,000. That a new city the size of Ballarat every year, what will this do for housing demands and prices?
i’m not argueing that “now is the time to Buy” just refuting your position that ‘the market will drop by 20-30%+”.
regards westan

hi guy’s

my experience is a bit different, people closest to me have got into the act
older brother now has 7 IP’s after being very sceptical at first.
younger brother has 1,
one best mate has bought 4
another has 2.
i had a convestion with a lady once about what i was doing with IP’s the next year i saw her she had bought 5, i nearly fell over.
i find at work people often call to see me to run past some scheme or plan they have. Friends often ask me to help find properties etc.
i don’t get to much negative stuff to my face but have heard through a third person people making comments like “it’s very risky” and “it’s a house of cards”. But they don’t know how financially secure this has made me.
Regards westan

Housesonly

Here you go, crashy quoted a completely ridiculous figure a few week ago and you’ve picked it up as some sort of fact.
“It is logical that because the long term (350 years or more) trend for residential property is to yield a return below 10% and many areas have yielded more than twice that for between 6 and 8 years it is obvious that the situation is out of balance.”
Firstly, Australia was settled in 1788 before this time there was no property market. Even if these figures are accurate for overseas it is not for OZ. There is not one property market but many. following your logic some regional centers are about to boom. Because for many years they have not risen at 10% but have risen at a very low rate. The reason for growth is supply and demand. Usually to do with jobs. So it is logical that some areas will grow by more than 10% because the local economy is robust for example Sydney as compared to Broken Hill.
Secondly lets look at this so called figure of 10% PA over 350 yrs. if you are familiar with the rule of 72 you will know that at 10% prices double every 7 years and therefore they were half the price 7 yrs ago. So let do some sums The Melbourne Median price in Mar 2003 was 347,000. Following your 10% figure it should have been half that in 1995 (173,500), in 1988 (86,750), in 81 (43,375), in 74 (21,687), in 1967 (10,843), in 1953 it was 2,710, in 1933 it was $338, in 1898 it was $10.50. do i need to keep going, why not in 1870 it was 66cents. These figures don’t make sense its far more acurate to use modern figure say the last 20 to 30 yrs if you need to quote anything at all. You may be right the market may drop but i can’t follow your logic. Its like saying a stocksay ABC corp has grown at 20% PA for the past 10 yrs therefore it will crash because the stockmarket only rises at 10% PA.
Please correct me if i’m wrong
Regards westan

Hi Mini

firstly, we expect you to join us in Sept in you know where! (not Byron Bay).
in answer to your Question.
Yes i bought into these areas because of the developments. Interestingly i dismissed these areas 4 years earlier because they were economic basket cases. I can’t remember where i heard about Hamilton but it was common knowledge if you read business sections of the papers. Millicent a friend mentioned what was happening, so i drove there and spoke to the economic development officer to get all the goss. It amazes me that even locals weren’t cashing in on the bonanza. Agents say to me now “wow you’ve done really well with your purchases” but none of them were investing. Honestly i never expected such good profits, but i knew i couldn’t loose. Where is the next development? we have discussed it in the past, i hope i’ve just discovered another one. But there are plenty of good stories out there. Who knows maybe i’m selling too soon in these areas.
Just the other day Stawell Gold Mines (biggest Gold Producing Mine in Vict.) announced it will embark on exploration to find Victoria’s biggest Gold deposit in the past 100 yrs. From Stawell to Warracknabeal. It should be worth keeping an eye on developments. Also it was announced in Beaufort that a new indusrty will be established creating 50-80 jobs, great for a town of only 1,500. I’m not buying on either of these things but they are examples of info that comes out all the time. Mildura is another area if the billion dollars fussion chimney goes ahead and the mineral sands projects, surley it will continue to boom. Just some thought for any that are interested, Anyone like to add others.
regards westan

Hi alf

The laws aren’t that different between states. and aren’t that different in NZ either.
If you can buy good locally then why look far afield, unless you wanted to spread yor risk (wise investing).
Sometimes opportunities present themselves that are too good to resist and sometimes they are interstate. i wouldn’t let state or international boundries stop me from a great deal. It is best to investigate the area thoroughly (prices, vacancy rates, economy) and only then if you are happy visit the areas, you should have gauged a feel for price from the Net.
A personal favourate of mine is to discover new economic developments and get in before the price rise. For example i was able to do this in Hamilton Vic. A billion $ mineral sands project is planned by Iluka Resources and Hamilton will benifit massively. Last Feb to Apr i got 3 properties for 32-42K now they are worth 85-105K. Another example is Millicent SA there are numerous development including wind farms, chip factory anyway i bought there for 52 and 53, sold last month for 88 and 93k Considering my cash input to these deals was a total of about 25k i’ve made a profit after costs of 61k (before tax)thats a not a bad return (240%) for 12 months with very little risk. i am saying this to encourage you (and to show off).[]
Sometimes there is more money to be made outside our own backyard. Look at Steve strategy he had to travel all over the place to get the deals.
regards westan

I’m the same as Tas love to be there but can’t make it. have a good night.
westan

Hi Everyone

diamond i got proputy numbu 235830 fu $36,500, today
if yur wonderin about the spellin just doing it so recovery can read wots goin on.

Sorry recovery i have to stack it on someone, looks like itz your tern today. I’ll give Mini a break.

Hey mini, Rod C wanted some advice also for his travels. While i’m here can i book renta car with you?

Diamond what are you talking about the Knights? There isn’t even a team called the Knights i think you meant Swans?

westan