Forum Replies Created
I agree Devo76,
The point is any person can predict the winner of a horse race when it's finished.
Every now and then WE all need to put up our hands and say opps nobody is perfect and Steve has done lots of great things and many mistakes like all of us, we're all human even Packer made mistakes.
Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone …
D
Hi Hard,
Yes this thread has been going since 2006 … because the bubble burst in 2005 at the peak.
2 years ago people here started warning people about the ugly side of investing and TIMING the market, thats not negative thats the truth in investing.
This site is based on getting advise thats why people come here IMHO and for others older to give wisdom.
We are in a WORLD credit crisis … if the market in property starts going up tomorrow say 30% across the board who has the capacity to BUY when jobs and wages are being suspended?????
The times earning ratio on affordability is way out of wack … thats the problem so can a person on $100,000.00 income buy a 2 million dollar property and raise two kids on it at a 100% home loan … show me …
D
Yes Scamp it is a shame as I have also had many deletes,
This is a great communication site and like so many businesses the value comes from the CEO down … information is valuable especially for the unsophisticated investor …
D
Hello S Hales,
Philip here Danielle has asked me to comment on this …
Firstly yes a totally beautiful area and in fact quite possible they are neighbors with a friend of mine Kevin Hurley from Parramatta Mortgage and Leasing.
I do not know what your parents financial position is and most importantly their age and how far away from retirement they are. This property may suffer for another 5 years or more until this financial crisis settles down. Unless these acreage properties have all the bells and whistles on them they are hard to sell, sheds, big house, tennis court, golf driving net, 6 car garaging etc remember big properties need big things.
My accountant had 25 acres at 125 Pitt town road Kenthurst in the last recession and could nott sell it for 5 years … when people are cutting back they look at acerage properties like boats … money goes in nothing comes out.
They have two choices keep it and wait or flick it and invest in a better area. Do the numbers on a piece of paper because numbers don't lie … in the holding on period they can waste money and TIME which is more valuable. I am assuming they are 50 or above … How about an old s..tter in Turramurra walk to rail and bowl it over then build a Masterton. Westminister, or Clarendon 40 sq/m home on it that will value up at around $1,600.000.00 in todays market. Purchase an old sh..ter for around $650 – 725k
Turramurra or Warrawee (or west Pymble) are only 20 minutes away and I believe the Sydney North Shore will grow by 30% in the next 3 years eg; walk to rail and schools… currently they are losing money while my way they will gain … secondly my question is 5 years from now how old will they be? and do they really need a big property at 60?
Secondly their arcerage has rock on it and what percentace I don't know, can they change the concept of it … can they get a DA for a 100 sq/m home … I do coneptual planning which means I create the dream for others to buy … In essence what I am saying here is get a project home builder to DESIGN, in 3D the biggest most spectacular house, pool, tennis court etc and then sell the property with the DA … don't build just paint the dream for the buyer … cost to do this about $20,000.00 or much less … does it work yes it has in the past.
Thirdly can they trade the property … stick and add in the paper "older couple wants to down size and is will ing to trade smaller house around ….. for 5 beautiful acres in Galston.
Wish I had a crystal ball and I hope I have been of help … Philip S (think laterally)
My question is can you AFFORD to speculate and risk your money in a casino … are you looking to get rich quick … read other threads and watch the news in my opinion unless you are a current millionaire go and look for some thing safer in your own suburb.
In Beaudesert Queensland they have just granted the upgrade to a major train station for heavy industry and this is part of a major link in the Australian Government big picture bla!
Summary: why are you still focusing on coal in small towns in the middle of no where.
D … good luck
GMH you are loving this you bad boy … haha … you are one of my favorite responders.
Yes I agree in fact we predicted that rents would fall contrary to others belief months ago … the same thing happened in the 90s when rents went up young people stayed at home with mum and dad longer and saved, you see folks renters are not stupid people, their wage packet can only sustain soooooooooo much.
Just like the coal miners they are not stupid either and started asking why should we pay stupid rents to investors … I mean really these guys work in horrific conditions on big money and investors expect them to part with ALL OF THEIR money … well folks it's about to stop and lots are going to learn the lesson of "oh my god I own a property in a mining town which is now a ghost town"
When buying an investment you also need to apply a degree of intelligence to the purchase … unfortunately if you are 35 years old or younger how old were you in 1990 in the last recession? good luck we all have to learn some harder than others.
D
Thanks all,
1. Dave this whole forum is based on advise which ever way you look at it.
2. Crashy totally correct and even up to 12 months ago when others were saying it would never happen … where are they now.
3. Craig re Warrawee … we put 350k cash into buy the property outright and this is our 9th and have it rented for 520.00 per week … it is now a 2.5 bedroom 2 bathroom oldie owned by an 84 year old one owner and the area is flooded with properties like this. If you do a google street view you can see the bus stop on the other side of the road … so first I ask what do people pay for on the North shore taking into account this is on the West side answer, 5 bde, study, granite kitchen, marble floors on the 3 bathrooms (very cheap) and fully white tiled walls ($22 sq/m) looks out of this world and cheap, media room with french doors, BBQ area, nice out side patio etc.
Next ring 5 agents and tell them you want to buy today (recession) what I have described above on a dead flat block of land that will cost us $1.2 million when completed … will we sell I don't know we will see what the market is doing then, we have been quoted by Knox real estate easy $1,800.00 rent … why in a recession because it's wholesale on the north shore and the numbers work … I can apply this strategy to any suburb as long as you follow the 21 buying cryteria that Philip Sigglekow writes about in his books in fact he is going to use this project as a youtube 10 video how to do it yourself for his next course, making money in your own suburb.
Craig there are bargins in every area, we are looking at old established areas in Campbelltown currently, walk to rail and shops are on top of the list, and old areas are the best to live in because they are quiet with no boof heads and rev heads therefor great for families.
Another sleeping area is West Pymble walk to shops, walk the streets and knock on doors thats what we do and it works … 5 of these over a 12 year period will make 2million dollars and have a bucket load of fun in the process.
I know St Marys it's a lovely area with lovely people, can you put a Champion Duplex or try Westminister Homes they both are very well priced in that area and we have built with them b4 …
Another cheap and very effective idea Philip teaches is to buy 1sq/m of second hand marble or granite ($30.00) = 10 tiles in a box and have this layed in the entrance of the front door (marble entrance)… first impressions count … second don't use corrian bench tops go for 20mm black granite it's cheaper and looks better, women love granite.
Go to your local book shop and ask for 201 startagies and techniques the rich use when buying real estate by Philip Sigglekow distributed by Dennis Jones and associates … one of 3 easy reading books.
Finally when is the right time IMHO at the bottom of a market or in a recession while every body else are crying poor and joining support groups or turning to network 21 "amway" as their last hope … haha
Danielle … I just love research. good luck Craig u can do it.
Hi Rambo … don't assume and take good advise,
Your property looks great … work hard and invest as much as you can into the mortgage to reduce debt which will increase yr cash flow when u move out after 6 months … hint!!!
D …
Hello ErikH,
Investments in the Gold Coast are being hit hard … too many spruckers still today selling NEGATIVE geared investment properties in LOW quality areas … our advise to clients is stay away from the GC.
1 Walk to shops
2 300 meters to a train station
3 Easy flat walk to a bus stop
4 Land area must be 700 sq/m +
5 Do not buy from a finance company or an Unlicensed agent
6 See a financial adviser and accountant before you sign
7 Google search the nearby 10 streets or search realestate.com.au or Domain.com.au for pricing on one year old properties nearby.Coomera areas have fallen from 425k to around 330k and rents average $310.00 now prove to me thats a good investment when I can buy a one bedder in the waterfront at homebush bay sydney for 350k renting for oner 450.00 … Coomera or Homebush?
D
Thanks Crashy,
Some people have seen my posts as negative in some areas and that is not my intentions, I have been through this before in the 90's and now the market is turning and people will need help.
The most common fault is in determining the difference between an ASSET and a LIABILITY … it's funny as I re read all the rich dad books over xmas and also the science of getting rich (which is free) by Wallace D. Wattles … back to the basics.
Opinions are like belly buttons every body has one … An old friend of mine Peter Spann only invested in high quality areas like Elizabeth Bay in Sydney or within 200 meters from a train station and second hand one bedroom apartments, long term good renters.
Yes you may get a good positive cash flow investment way out in the sticks but what happens to your financial position when the market changes … if it takes America 10 years to fix it's economy where does that leave Australia, your call folks.
The decisions you make will determine your financial destiny … lets see what will happen after June 2009.
BHP down 2000 jobs … ADR close 402 shops … Gerry Harvey is closing stores … you don't need to be a rocket scientest to understand whats happening here folks.
IMHO the best investments are: One bedroom appartments in high quality areas near trains, hospitols, education, shops etc … buying old shitters on FLAT blocks of land and building new houses like Clarendon homes, I am in a JV at 16 Mildred st Warrawee Sydney dead flat bus at the front door 5 minutes to train and shops 400k profit … just to name two … I believe at the end of the day it's about EQUITY or how much cash you accumulate.
D
Just another angle Steve …
What is your advise to students on this site that have bought in such towns that will lose their tenants and won't be able to replace them at all … these properties could drop in value by 70% or more … and create negative equity.
D
Yes Steve I agree,
I warned this in my posts over the last few months and had personal experience myself of rental properties in towns like Proserpine … when this market turns it will be ugly … we had talks with our overseas advisores today who predicted that there will be a market rally up until June then the mother of a global re correction …
Information is valuable … head the roar of the distant drums.
D
Well hello gmh454 and happy 2009 …
I am going to make my prediction …
We will hold together up until the end of the financial year then all hell could break through …
We are behind the overseas markets by at least 4 months and we have not had the full effect from the China down turn yet …
This recession/depression is like none other and is based now on credit, the banks don't have the money to lend and that is why they are tightening their criteria on lending …
We are dealing with banks now selling liquidated stock at 70% less than what it was valued at in 03/08 …
Super funds are going broke along with small time real estate agents and financial advisers …
Where are the best deals IMHO? … within 300 meters of a train station on the north shore in Sydney or similar in other states … renovations on PPOR … buy old houses and redevelop with project builders …
Beware of inland mining towns but Mackay type towns will hold together where the population is over 50,000
The best big deals will come after the end of the financial year … this market will go at least 3 years before it starts to improve … 5 million people start to retire = 25% of population from 2010 = baby boomers.
Pick your markets well when investing and get professional advise to go over the numbers …
Ray White GC sold 39 million dollars of stock last Sunday or 43 of the 93 listings … one penthouse previously worth 4.2 million sold for 2.8 million and that one sale has devalued the whole building by 40 million dollars …
If you have cash you will be treated like a king …
If our prime minister tells us on national television that it's going to get worse then you do the numbers …
There will be more millionaires created in the next 3 years than ever before in history …
D
It's interesting reading back on our comments,
China may now go into recession.
Petrol under 90c go figure that one.
Interest rates under 5% go figure … but
Australia will hit 100 billion in credit debt … this is not good.
Bank credit will tighten further.
D … merry xmas
Hi GMH and merry xmas,
I read an article in a Londan paper last week written by a prominant global notary,
He said for the first time since he can remember he and all of his very influential friends are unable to make any preditions for the short or long term other than there is far worse to come …
Scary … this is global folks not local … forget about the bottom the question is no matter how cheap you get it who will buy it from you and at what cost …
D … merry xmas
Hello Albert again,
I don't think anybody in this country can say what is happening and where this is going.
Forget about foretasted growth … none of these stats predicted a depression worse than the 30's
Look at the truth around the world Albert, all of our research docs from the last 3 years is out the window.
The future is about low debt and no credit cards … lets reread my views again in six months.
D
Hello no I didn't get the deal however several other deals in small commercial came along showing better returns,
Isn't it funny looking back on predictions and so far this year I am on the money except for the petrol and interest rates … what a back flip.
I am a specialist researcher as some of you know … I believe that there is worse to come for reasons other than what the gurus here are saying.
China in recession will not be a good thing for Australia especially in the mining industry …
Banks are giving away credit cards again … Australias CREDIT debt will double to over 100 BILLION dollars faster than it got to 20 Billion dollars and this is dangerous … wait and see.
The future challenge in 09 10 11 will be job losses and getting money from the bank.
D
Buy in gloom sell in boom … Hello nothing new here …
D
Profit …
D
Location … Furnished … short stay … motel leaese back … there is lots of reasons why this is so positive but most of all >>> location, location, location. IMHO
D
