Come on fellas…lighten up. If we cant agree like adults..are we gonna get all pi$$y and pout in the corner? I think not..
Now…the BBQ….november sometime. A kid friendly atmoshpere….a park….half naked male slaves…maybe Steve can shout the lobster? Blind folds for the children and those under 21 LOL
Ohhhhhh….maybe a theme BBQ!! Property Investment and Bondage. A leather get together… lmao !!!! [}][}][}][}]
LOL Pinky,
Like I said earlier, I’m just trying to get my post count up[]
November!!!!!!![][][] I will have left Melbourne by then….damn!!!!!
Be told as someone that has been in the stock market since the Poseidon Boom that when the godzilla effect hits and it falls you just can’t get the hedges on in time ….
There is an answer to that. Have at least some sort of hedge on at all times.
These days it is easy. You can always carry a few shorts via CFD’s as an automatic hedge.
But I like SPI futures. Its virtually a 24 hour market and I can place an emergency contingency sell order slightly below key levels in case New York goes up in smoke overnight.
Some people ALWAYS have a long dated, way out of the money index put option in the bottom drawer. These are cheap as, and are effective insurance against an inevitable calamity in the market.
I really hate market cliche’s but this one is good; heard it fro RK:
it’s about paying $30 for yesterday’s news. And if you concede that finding deposits for multiple properties is beyond the reach of the average mum and dad investor, and finding a property that nets in the region of 10.4% CoCR is nigh on impossible, then you’d have to agree Steve’s book is not that helpful as that is the basis of the whole concept – a concept that is almost impractical because the book is out of date and not relevant today.
OK, even though at the moment, it is yesterdays news, IT IS ALSO TOMORROWS NEWS IN ADVANCE!!!
Its all about cycles and getting active at the bottom of the cycle.
Will those +ve geared properties pop up close to town in the future. You betcha they will. Just gotta wait; and armed with the knowledge attained through the likes of Steve today; you will recognize them for what they are, a golden opportunity.
“Be careful not step on the flowers when you’re looking at the stars.”
Sue, I just love that quote.
Re: share investing.
If you want to invest long term, read the book “Buffetology”. There is no better. It basically teaches you to look for value in the sharemarket(you won’t find much value atm[] unless you look real hard), and view the shares from a business perspective.
If you want to “play” the market, I would advise you to learn some technical analysis……(in itself a minefield with a lot of BS and seminar sheisters)
Don’t pay thousands for seminars there is nothing you cant learn out of a book, (or free from my website if I ever get it finished[xx(])
Visit some sharetrading forums and find the “REAL” traders in them. They are only too happy to help, just like the good people here on this forum.
And its not that hard……K.I.S.S. (Well, your mind can make it hard, but the mathematics and techniques are easy)
Saying that share are more liquid doesn’t help you too much if you wake up in the morning and see “$250,000 investments crash to about $110,000 within an hour of the market opening”! No matter how quick you are you are likely to incur a massive hit in those type of circumstances.
This is very true housesonly.
But if we examine the period in question(1987):
*The total fall of the market, although dramatic, in time terms only represented 15 previous months gains. In other words there was a TREMENDOUS run up in the market prior to the crash (much like the property market today; ominous eh?)
In the period from July 1986-September 1987….14 months… THE MARKET DOUBLED. Thats like todays market market going to 6300 by christmas 2004.
The market basically was red-lining for too long and blew a piston out of the block.
Those who were hurt the most were the late comers.
Just like the new property investors of today (unless they are smart enough to do it right….hmmmmmm)
*Unlike the property market you can hedge yourself via shortselling a portion of your portfolio, buying put options, or sell SPI futures (not so easy at the time but dead easy today) so in any share market crash, we stand to gain much as well as taking a hit…..a net profit for those with experience.
The market immediately before the crash had SELL written all over it. People should have been out of the market or hedged their positions. In the weeks before the actual crash the market decined about 10%. That should have been enough to convince people to do something about their portfolios.
Anyone who plonked 250K into the sharmarket in september 1987, didn’t do their homework.(hmmmmmmm, just like so many new property investors of today[])
Most don’t want to hear. All the better for those waiting for the right time.
If you look back at all the topics relating to this very issue, they don’t get read nearly as much as the others, and even less discussion.
quote:
putting my dough into shares
I have concerns about the stock market as well. As billfromoz has said above, the market has a 1987ish feel about it at the moment. This has been a comment from a number of traders. It is STILL trading at historically high p/e values.
The great advantage of the stockmarket though is liquidity, you can get out FAST. Plus you can also hedge your exposure via options or SPI futures.
Anything I buy atm in the stockmarket definately will NOT be going in the bottom drawer, trading purposes only. I have a number of short positions also.
All just a long-winded way of saying, be careful in the stockmarket also.
I totally agree with your “blood in the streets” scenario.
But I was interested in your comments re wrapping also only being good in a rising market. Can you expand on this statement and explain why please.
My thoughts are as follows (based on many hours of inexperience[][]):
I was considering wrapping as a hedge against falling/stagnant markets. In answer to the question would I wrap to a family member or mate in the current market?
The answer is a qualified yes…..ie providing the deal makes sense for both of us. A wrappee is genarally not interested in capital gain in the short term, they just want to buy a house and the banks dont want to come to the party. Eventually they will get their capital gain.
Also, will the market actually crash 30%?…Well I think it will IF interest rates start trending up strongly, otherwise I think a long period of stagnation is more likely.
But I believe a correction in prices is on the cards, because interest rates will rise eventually.