Forum Replies Created
And in shares the most important rule is to avoid having a long term portfolio because you have made a short term mistakeAmen[
]Hey Bribie,
Couldn’t stand you feeling lonely so have posted some waffle on one of the threads[
]Cheers
“Why try and predict?”Cos he asked for our opinions. I didnt hear anyone say “im long because I predict this or that”
Crashy, my post was directly under yours and it looked like I was having a go at you particularly. In fact you used the word “expect”, which I like a whole lot more than predict. If we go long on something it is because we expect it to go up.
But the reason I canned prediction is that on a psycological level it is a dangerous thing. Some traders using Gann predictive techniques blow themselves up because they make these predictions, and believe they are “right”, you know, the square of 83 lines up with the celestial harmonic doodad line so therefore the market must be going to 10,000,000.[
] or whatever it is they do.I use what may look like prediction in my analysis using longer term pivots. But because the financial houses use the same technique, I am forming expectations based on price behavoiur around these areas just the same as most traders form expectations at areas of normal everyday support and resistance.
But I couldn’t give stuff where the market goes as long as it goes somewhere. I have this attitude because in the past I have sabotaged myself for having too strong an expectation one way or the other.
Example:
Lets flip a coin one hundred times. Based on the law of averages we have an expectation that it will land on heads 50 times.
Only a fool will predict that it in fact WILL land on heads 50 times, or 47 times or whatever. The reality is that it may land on heads any number of times that is different to our expectation.
Then, we can form a range of expectatations based on all sorts of statistical analysis here…bell curves and suchlike but that would take too long…and bore everybody s**tless.
I think there is an important psychological difference.
Wayne
hi allWaynel
Do you still punt on the horses professionally or semi professionally.
regards
alfAlf,
No not anymore, it’s a tough living and having a soft spot for animals, I couldn’t stand the stuff that happens on a racecourse from time to time.
Then I was at Moonee Valley watching a hurdles race and a horse fell and died at the last jump…virtually right in front of where I was standing.
That was enough for me.[
]Cheers
WayneWhy try and predict?
We’ve got predictions of Dow 4,000 and Dow 20,000…gosh, someone predicted Dow 40,000 and wrote a book about it.
I predict that the market WILL fluctuate…..hang on, didn’t someone else say that?
Better to have a strategy in place that will take advantage of any scenario.
That said, AussieRouges reasoning is very sound; I hope your ship comes in m8![
]Cheers
WayneThat must have been me they were talking about!!!
Nah! I don’t wear tops I wear shirts….and mother is still alive[
]….I don’t even iron, hahahaha[]‘Onya Chris
Keep it up m8…we’ll correct the balance of trade problems all by ourselves, eh!![
]Wayne
But the index is 1 %DANGERMOUSE stuff!
The amount of leverage is largely irrelevant if you stick to your preset risk parameters.
People tend to feel obliged to crank up their risk just because an instrument is highly leveraged…..NO,NO,NO. Whether margin is 100%, 10%, 5%, 3% or 1% should not matter.
Stick to your money management rules.
(end of sermon)[
]I just want 5% margin cause I don’t like a lot of my money in CMC’s account. Safer in my cash management account.
Wayne
I WANT 5%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (screams while stamping feet!)[
]This IG Markets mob charges .5% commission on the notional value of the CFD. [
][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][][]Pass
Westan,
rofl = rolling on floor laughing
rotfpmsl = rolling on the floor p**sing myself laughing
roflmao = rolling on floor laughing my a*** off
[
][][][]Cheers[
]Pin
http://users.bigpond.com/prominex/pegasus.htm
This chap trades longside trades only, no leverage at all.
Imagine what can be done with some leverage and decent money management.[
][][][][]The techniques are easy….the psycology is the hard part[
]Wayne
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