This is from Maquarie Bank:Policy Flash
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> Australia’s Central Bank Raises Cash Rate to 5.00%
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> The RBA> ‘> s decision to tighten monetary policy in November came sooner than we had expected given that GDP growth over the last year was only 2% and inflation looks set to fall below 2% in the March quarter 2004. However, the explanations for the rate rise – a stronger international outlook, stronger rural production and a still-strong housing market – were not surprising.
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> How much further will rates rise and when?
> The fact that the RBA says that rates were only > “> mildly expansionary> “> suggests that they do not see a need to raise rates substantially in order to return interest rate settings to neutral. Nor does the RBA provide any suggestions that interest rates will to be pushed into contractionary territory given the outlook for either growth or inflation. For that reason, we think interest rates will only need to rise by another 25 or 50 bps before the RBA puts interest rates on hold once again.
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> We also suspect that the RBA will proceed quite cautiously in raising interest rates during the tightening cycle given the risk that it could expose some fragility in household balance sheets. We remain reasonably optimistic about the ability of the consumer to withstand modestly higher interest rates but nevertheless concede that it is a risk. And for the RBA there seems relatively little benefit in taking the chance of undermining confidence.
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> This consideration may also have been a factor in the RBA> ‘> s decision to surprise analysts by raising interest rates in November. In effect, by doing so, the RBA has achieved the maximum bang for its buck. In other words, its possible that a surprise rise in interest rates may trigger a change in consumer behaviour (in terms of their willingness to invest in housing) while not placing undue pressure on their cash flows.
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> Thus, while we didn> ‘> t expect the RBA to tighten policy in November, it may be a mistake to conclude that they are intent on raising interest rates aggressively in this cycle. We suspect that they will closely monitor the reaction of consumers and businesses to this decision and see what impact it is having on behaviour before moving again. Thus, there is an argument that they should wait until February next year before nudging rates higher. If, however, consumers ignore the rate rise, then the RBA could increase rates again in December.
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> The other thing to watch is the reaction of the A$, which shot up by more than half a cent after the decision. The RBA made an oblique reference to A$ strength in the statement, suggesting that it was less of a concern because the global economy was picking up. While this is true, we have some concerns about the extent to which the A$ has already risen (and the pace of the appreciation) compared with the improvement in global demand. Commodity prices in A$ terms are much lower than a year ago. Thus, this must remain another constraint on an aggressive tightening cycle.

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

The real trick is, not what the sharemarket as a whole is going to do, but rather what particular stocks are going to do.

For example Orica; it went quite well right throughout the recent bear phase. But from 1997 to late 2001 it was a real dog….which was a bull market.

Something will always be going well, no matter what the state of the market. Just finding them is tricky if you are not equipped.

With modern charting software, nothing moves in the sharemarket without you knowing about it.

Wayne

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

On Sanfords site today:

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I’ve read about foreign policy and studied — I know the number of continents.”
– George Wallace, 1968 US presidential campaign

[]Wayne

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

Thomas,

I have always used Metastock so can’t comment on other programs.

The thing that I have found, is that so many people use Metastock, that there is always somebody able to help if you have a problem.

You are aso able to code in your own indicators….a brain exploding exersize when learning to do so, but always someone who is willing to help on the various trading forums.

As an example; Darryl Guppy has pages and pages of custom metastock formula that have been contributed by visitors to his site.

Cheers

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

quote:

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still pay all the transaction costs ($25k stamp duty on a $1mill purchae)

Cheers

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Where do you live? Where I live it is substantially more than that. I just payed more than that in agents commisions to sell[]

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

simply add them all together.

you have assets valued at $850,000 and loans of $602,000

602,000 divided by 850,000 = 70.82%

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

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Isnt charting auction clearance rates easier?

http://www.posigear.8k.com

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Yes, why not put that into the equation as well! The more data the better.

http://www.tradingforaliving.info

Hmmmmmmmmmmm……I don’t do too shabbily for a sucker. But agree with non-directional strategies when the time is right…..Hang on a minute! aren’t you the one who reckons the R/E market is going down 30%. (BTW I tend to agree…well maybe not 30%, but a fair bit)

LOL I love the shameless self promotion though.

Pinky,

I’m with you. From a purely self-centered point of view I hope the R/E market gets slaughtered. Flogged my PPOR and I’m renting for a year or two.

[]Wayne[8D]

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In the meantime go long the SPI and S&P500 on either Friday 17th or Friday 31st Oct.

Bill

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Bill,

I’m actually dying to take profit on longs and short the SPI. The market is at key resistance levels right now and we have had 9 up days in a row in the cash market; a reasonably rare occurance.

We have enough room for a down swing before both of your dates……but I am interested in your reasoning for going long on the 17th or 31st.

I must admit my key resistance ares are looking shakey…ftse at 13 month highs and S&P futures will open with green ink.

I’m happy to keep my longs but getting an itchy sell finger.

Wayne

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Perhaps “Gender” is a better, and less distracting, term to use.

Michael

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Loosen up dude. Life is short, have fun![]