All that is true, but these things are cyclical in nature.
Also, underlying the warm and fuzzy positives, is a dangerously high level of credit, as thefisrstbruce has pointed out above…some say a credit bubble.
Some economists have raised the spechtre of deflation, which is equally damaging. For a really scary read, go out and get “conquer the crash” by Robert Prechter.
I know people who are so worried, that they are buying physical gold with their ears pinned back. I’m not that pessimistic though.
I do however hedge my investments to counter that possibility. This is a difficult thing to do with property, so additional caution is in order. It’s not an easy thing to dump quickly.
So what is going to be the catalyst for the decline??
James
That is a very good question. Thats why, as things stand at the moment with low interest rates etc, I favour an extended sideways correction, a protracted plateau. Time will eventually catch up with price.
Previous sharp corrections have been triggered by interest rate raises. Will we see a rising interest rate environment? I don’t know that one, but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility. But not before Dubya goes to the polls.
A large part of the early 90’s QLD property bust, was due to the significant capital gains fuelled by the frenzy of Japanese money in the 80’s.
I don’t think there is an artifical boost in the QLD market over the last few years. More like the same factors that have been present in all other areas in Australia.
James
Which is exactly my point. IF property prices tank, the sunshine state will not be exempt.
N.B. We are speaking generally here, the numbers will stack up on some properties, even now. Just be careful on what set of numbers you use. Share investoes tend to use differnt numbers at different times to their own detriment.
The underlying factor is that demand in certain markets is outstripping supply, take a look at Queensland and in particular the experts predictions on the growth this year alone of the market between Brisbane and the Gold Coast (Coomera 25%+).
An expert seeks out denand hot spots, like the stock market some sectors fall while others boom, isn’t that what investing is all about … look for the boom and don’t get caught up in the gloom. [email protected]
Hmmmmmm I seem to recall the same things being said, just before the queensland market tanked in the early nineties. (I lived there at the time)[}]
These sorts of sweeping generalizations apply to the capital and major cities obviously.
I understand your point about “which” property market. It is the same in the (unmentionable word)market. While the major (unmentionableword)s were all tanking in 2000-2003, I can show you smaller capitalized companies that appreciated 600% or more in the same period.
So point taken in that regard.
By the same token, I would hardly catagorize “The Economist” in the same league as “the media” you guys refer to. It is not quite the same as The Sydney Morning Herald now is it?
It is to be taken a little more seriously than The Womens Weekly for instance.
Time and price will ultimately do as it will. Those of us who guessed right will crow from the rooftops while those that guessed wrong will slink away as unnoticed as possible[:o)]
Well Peter, thats what makes a market, eh, different perceptions of value.
I see it every single day in the (unmentionableword)market.
I was just reporting what was said, without offering my opinion, but I tend to agree that in general, prices tend to regress to the mean. At the moment we are unquestionably on the upper extremes of the long term regression channel. Which is exactly what was noticed by those at “The Economist”.
However, as a Technical Analyst I’ll be the first to admit that markets don’t always correct sharply, they may go sideways for an extended period, which seem to be a higher probability at this point in time.
>>We are many years behind the States and Europe and having property today will make us the rich of tomorrow. Property prices here are not beyond the average person here compared to Europe etc. But its starting to go that way.<<
There are two problems with this hypothesis:
1/The UK has the most expensive r/e in europe…but the rate of home ownership is >= the rate of home ownership here in oz. The average slob in the UK is a home owner. In the US homes are more affordable than in oz….relative to average earnings etc. Get away from NY City or LA and r/e is cheap as.
2/Do some research on future demographics…then read “conquer the crash” by Robert Prechter. Researh what happened to r/e prices in the 1930’s. There is a plausible theory that r/e could go into a long term down trend starting around the mid 2010’s.
Finally, do some research on contrarian investing….when everybody is doing the same thing, it’s time to get out!
Lets put this in perspective. If banks start to foreclose on people who have negative equity because of falling prices then this will only fuel any falls tenfold. This means the banks will be selling an asset worth even less than if they hadn’t started foreclosures.
It will also spell disaster for many families in most major centres accross Australia.
I can’t imagine it happening or being allowed to happen by either the government or the industry.
Comments may not be relevant to individual circumstances. If you intend making any investment, financial or taxation decision you should consult a professional adviser.
Simon,
It has happened right throughout this century in various places in the world. e.g. It happened in the UK in the 90’s.
Just make sure, when the tenants move out, you take some of their bond money to cover the cost and expenses to fix the problems and unwanted cost your tenants caused you.
Would you prefer that the tenants not mention problems and allow the property to gradually deteriorate?
Subtracting bond for this type of “inconvenience” only furthers the usually acrimonious relationship between tenant and landlord.
I am renting for the moment. The landlord has made it clear that my reporting of small problems is unwelcome. Why should I now care for this property as if it were my own when the landlord doesn’t?
Then of course there is http://www.hotcopper.com.au but most things I have to say about hotcopper would probably be viewed as slander, so I won’t say anything about this cesspit…fun if you like to argue and bicker I ‘spose.
Hope this doesn’t break the rules, but is general in nature:
As most here who are interested in the sharemarket are investors as opposed to traders, here is a handy growth value indicator.
It identifies prospects as a starting point for further research:
((EPS + DPS) / CSP x 100) + ((EPS – DPS) / NTA x 100)
EPS= earnings per share
DPS= dividends per share
CSP= current share price
NTA= net tangible assets
“Suggested Levels:
>30 Special Buy
24 – 30 Optimal Buy
20 – 24 Accumulate
17 – 20 Hold
12 – 17 Look for better investment
<12 Do not consider
Assuming all other factors are constant, a doubling in earnings per share will roughly double the stock’s CGVI.
If a company increases the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends, it will reduce it’s CGVI if the stock is selling above book value. Increased dividends help when the stock is selling below book value.
One point to take note of, as the formula relies on past data, it assumes that the company will be able to continue to generate the same return in the future. For larger companies, in the later stages of growth, that will often be a problem. Due to this weakness, the formula works best with small and medium sized companies, where the potential for continued profitable growth is greater.”
No bargains for a couple of years yet. It will take time for financial pain to set in for those overcommitted.
Sharemarket:
Be bloody careful if you are looking long term. Be very very selective. P/E multiples are still way too high overall….in other words not too many bargains to be found…but there are some…do your research[]
Trading is a whole ‘nuther story and I suspect will be rather good![][]