Forum Replies Created
- Originally posted by Aceyducey:
I love doomsayers.It seems we have an instant rapport! I love naysayers too!
Personally I think you’re overlooking a number of events in your claims of thirty years of economic growth….1987 correction, DotCom crash, Asian crisis, 9/11 crash, South American crisis, etc.Yes, true! but if you will carefully note, I was speaking of a longer term cycle. But also note that I spoke of fractals, or patterns inside patterns. This is the scale of those points you raise. Significant, yet smaller in scale than the overall picture I am refering to.
Of course if you look at it across thirty years they all look like minor bumps in a constant upwards march….But so does the Great Depression if you look at the last 100 years.Frankly it’s a matter of scale and definition.
Yes, you have it with scale. Unfortunately the picture is somewhat distorted because people use an arithmetic scale when looking back over the last century.
You must look at a logarythmic(can’t remember how to spell that)scale to get a true picture. You will then see the significance of the ’29 event, and the lesser significance of the others.
Will there be a bust – um…what’s a bust?Define what you mean by a bust & then we can have a real discussion
Well, that IS a hard question. One that I will maintain an intentional vagueness about:) I have my ideas what it will be like but they are shere conjecture at this point.
I know some very smart people too – none of them are stashing gold, silver or platinum in the ground…..but a number of whom are spreading their risk across a number of different asset classes.I am personally not so bearish as to go to this extent either. But as far as I am concerned liquidity is King… Unless I see value that is just to good to knock back.
Good luck waiting for those ‘substantially’ lower RE prices! (whatever you mean by substantial)Thank you. But luck will not be required. Patience will. Substantially lower means that prices will represent value my my own measure, value that has been achievable immediately prior to this current boom,…similar value that is, not similar prices.
And remember – you should NEVER try to apply identical metrics to shares & property – you lose every timeEven though we have known each other for such a short time, you are a true friend. Thank you for this advise.
However I am approaching this from a different angle than you might imagine. The economic cycle is really a manifestation of social mood. We point to the stock market, mainly because it is so easily and accurately quantifyable. But we also track other things that are less easily quantifyable, including such things as Real estate, art, music/movies, politics, religion etc.
The social mood will effect different things at different times. These are all blunt mesures of mood, so the timing of peaks and troughs in the cycle is mainly guesswork. As I said in my post above, it may not happen for a while yet, but it may have already started. Nevertheless my plan is in place and is working satisfactorily.
That’s all I’m really trying to get across, is to have a contingency plan.
Globally there are always ups and downs….the secret is in making sure you have good suspensionYup! suspension tuned to the terrain[medieval]
Cheers,
Wayne
