Forum Replies Created
Monopoly,
Here is my line of thinking. My capital is gainfully employed in my business earning attractive rates of return by anyones measure.
So any investment I make must measure up directly against that.
Now, historically rental rates of return on housing has been 5%-7% in the area in which I live (Perth Hills)
I flogged my previous PPOR for a reasonable stack of cash late last year, and have decided to rent for….well, the original plan was 2 years, but I can see that being longer now.
So, to use this house I am renting as a fairly middle of the road example, and pretty well representitive of the overall market:
The rent is $260/week and the house would easily sell for around $350k in todays market…a return of 3.85% gross…and personally, I can not see an aweful lot of scope for rising rents at this stage…and certainly not a lot of scope for CG
But… valueing this house at 5-7% gross return, which is reasonable value IMO… brings it in at at between $193k and $270k…clearly a ludicrous proposition as things stand currently.
Thats how far out of wack I see the fundamentals as being. Houses TOO expensive and rents TOO cheap.
As a PPOR I would think around 280-290 as an abslolute bargain and would buy with my ears pinned back. But as an investment….hmmm, my capital is still better placed at the moment.
But maybe 30% would be bargain basement as that would leave over 40% CG just to get back to where we are…worth putting up with abysmal returns for.
Cheers
>>pick up deals “at bargain basement” prices,<<
Serious? A tad off ridiculously overpriced isn’t bargain basement.
Even Aussies 30% still won’t be bargain basement.
Reasonable value maybe, but not bargain.
Originally posted by SuperTed:WayneL youve missed the point.
I seem to do that a lot
Especially for Superted, a nice little article about multiculturalism and tolerance:
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,11350409%255E421,00.html
Enjoy
Speaking of “LEAPS OF FAITH”;
I think it is ironic that the scientists version of events (big bang etc) requires an enormous leap of faith also.
In view of all our impending deaths, the race seems futile. The scenic route will do me just fine.
CLANCY OF THE OVERFLOW
A.B. (Banjo) PatersonI had written him a letter which I had, for want of better
Knowledge, sent to where I met him down the Lachlan, years ago,He was shearing when I knew him, so I sent the letter to him,
Just “on spec”, addressed as follows: “Clancy, of The Overflow”.
And an answer came directed in a writing unexpected,
(And I think the same was written with a thumbnail dipped in tar)
‘Twas his shearing mate who wrote it, and verbatim I will quote it:
“Clancy’s gone to Queensland droving, and we don’t know where
he are.”
In my wild erratic fancy, visions come to me of Clancy
Gone a-droving “down the Cooper” where the western drovers go;
As the stock are slowly stringing, Clancy rides behind them singing,
For the drover’s life has pleasures that the townsfolk never know.
And the bush hath friends to meet him, and their kindly voices greet him
In the murmur of the breezes and the river on its bars,
And he sees the vision splendid of the sunlit plains extended,
And at night the wondrous glory of the everlasting stars.
I am sitting in my dingy little office, where a stingy
Ray of sunlight struggles feebly down between the houses tall,
And the foetid air and gritty of the dusty, dirty city
Through the open window floating, spreads its foulness over all.
And in place of lowing cattle, I can hear the fiendish rattle
Of the, tramways and the buses making hurry down the street,
And the language uninviting of the gutter children fighting,
Comes fitfully and faintly through the ceaseless tramp of feet.
And the hurrying people daunt me, and their pallid faces haunt me
As they shoulder one another in their rush and nervous haste,
With their eager eyes and greedy, and their stunted forms and weedy,
For townsfolk have no time to grow; they have no time to waste.
And I somehow rather fancy that I’d like to change with Clancy,
Like to take a turn at droving where the seasons come and go,
While he faced the round eternal of the cashbook and the journal –
But I doubt he’d suit the office, Clancy, of “The Overflow”.
>>Want to make money in Network Marketing? Find someone who makes 50,000 a week in Network Marketing not someone who makes 50,000 a year by telling others to do what he does not do himself.<<
AHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA! These are the last people I would trust to tell me the truth about Network marketing!
>>Maybe once the race is over…the journey begins <<
Oh I like that Redwing!! Nicely put!
Cheers
Couldn’t agree more Ted.
There is insider trading every single day on the ASX…and for a lot more consideration than what would have probably only bought one of Rene’s Havana cigars.
Originally posted by Salubrious:Its funny that I fortold this outcome many moons ago but people just laughed me off. Well get ready caus here it comes!
We are all made from Stars
Hehe, there were in fact a small group of us Sal. I remember well the satirical resposes to our posts.
Cheers
>>The trade deficit compounded by rising energy costs is somewhat of a concern, but these issues can be adequately managed over the medium term given the right economic policies.
In terms of a global economic recession, or even a US recession, the chances of this happening are minimal at this time.
An economic “collapse” in the United States simply will not happen in the foreseeable future.<<
Very soothing Mike. But there are credible voices, who are also close the heart of what makes the US economy tick, who’s views are diametrically opposed to yours.
My crystal ball, most ungenerously, will not reveal the future. But given the credibility of the bearish voices and in light of the lessons of history, it would be most unwise not to at least acknowledge the possibility of difficult times ahead.
Most investors are heavily, and perhaps disasterously geared towards a single scenario…continued strong growth.
How many have a Plan B?
Cheers
>>Writing call options is not a strategy for use in a bull market, which we appear to be in. The returns are often exagerated a great deal, I have seen some spruikers quoting 8% a month. The REAL return is likely to be an extra 5% a YEAR. I have run many simulations on this and my results show writing calls against owned stock will improve the relative performance by only 3-7% p.a. This means if the stock was flat for the year, you came out with 5%. If the stock went up 10%, you cleared 15% (excluding dividends).<<
At last…the truth about covered calls!
Techa,
Looking at the risk SIS is taking on, there would be no problems with those profit figures…on a good run.
The interesting thing about risk is that the normal 2% risk touted in most trading literature is extremely sub-optimal.
The ideal risk to maximise profit (presuming a positive expectancy, and depending on the charactaristics of the trading system) is somewhere between 15% and 25% (i.e. on a fixed fractional basis)
This is how the Williams clown famously turned the 10k into a million in the trading challenge.
Of course the $ drawdown would scare the crap out of you and I and be almost impossible to trade psychologically. Even SIS’s risk is conservative by this standard.
I would not be comfortable with that risk AT ALL…or even SIS’s risk. But I’m a bit of an old fart compared to sis…got responsibilities,eh!
But SIS is 21 or 22 I believe…a different story. He may crash and burn… but he might not also. If he blows up his a/c, no problems just start again. If you or I blow up our a/c…catastrophe!! (you’d be alright, youv’ve got your business…trading IS my business)
What makes me not particularly doubt those figures is that if I cranked up my risk to just 5-10% fixed fractional I would have tripled my a/c so far this year. (The the opposite is also possible…a scenario I am not prepared to contemplate at this stage of my life.)
I know you’re big on brokers statements but I wouldn’t show them…but I never say how much I make either.
Cheers
John,
The dairy industry would have us believe that milk is the ONLY source of calcium.
Not true. It is one of the most common minerals on earth and is in nearly everything.
Bone density and intake of milk is actually inversely correlated. The countries with the highest dairy intake also have the highest rate of osteoporosis.
The majority of societies have little or no dairy consumption…and have very little osteoporosis.
Cheers
Originally posted by AusProp:Super Ted – if it is only going in coffee and random cereal then how much calcium are you getting in your diet?
Extensive list of ‘Off The Plan’ property available for sale in Perth.John – 0419 198 856
Question:
Where did the cow get the calcium from?
Ding Ding!
The key is synergy…calcium/magnesium/silica/etc/etc/etc
Plus, excessive animal protein causes calcium leaching.
Cheers
>>Yes, it might have ‘germs’ but none different from those we inhale all the time.<<
It’s not the germs.
The author of that article has a site:
There are a number of healthissues related to milk. Some , quite the opposite of what we are led to believe.
We have been dairy free for about 12 years now.
The American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.
The Mexican replied, only a little while.The American then asked why didn’t he stay out longer and catch more fish?
The Mexican said he had enough to support his family’s immediate needs.
The American then asked, “but what do you do with the rest of your time?”
The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life.”
The American scoffed, “I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise.”
The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”
To which the American replied, “15-20 years.”
“But what then?”
The American laughed and said that’s the best part.
“When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions.”
“Millions.. Then what?”
The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”
Cheers
Originally posted by Baloo:I wouldn’t be suprised to see changes to NG. While I don’t believe they will remove it completely, I can see them ring fencing NG on an asset so you can claim the tax credits back only when the asset begins to show a profit. This could be once the asset become PG or on a CG trigger.
This, in my mind, is a fairer system that would stop too much NG abuse yet still encourage investors to invest.
Agree,
This idea makes sense and would bring our rules more in line with the rest of the western world.
It would also bring property investors more into line with the rest of the business community in Oz.
Hey Aussierogue,
Do you think Yorker has missed reading part of this thread or what? lol