Forum Replies Created
Welcome Winston. You were one of the truly great contributors on SS. I look forward to your imput here.
Power stations in the LV will continue to generate power for decades to come. ETS is dead and alternative power options are unreliable and/or way too expensive. We are now hooked on cheap power.
Of all the major regional towns in Vic, Traralgon has the highest pop. growth and the highest incomes (source ABS 2006). Many other favourable stats also, so well worth a look.
Don't discount the prospect of capital growth in the stronger regional cities.
They WILL grow at approx +/- the same rate as the big cities over time, only with better yield.
This link
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/prices_by_city.jsp?currency=AUD&itemId=101
is a realistic indicator of what property costs to buy, in per sq m terms, not 8sq apartment vs 35 sq house.
Look at the per sq m price MEL/SYD vs other big cities of the world. Also, note that this list is probably quite old and MEL/SYD curent price would now actually be a fair bit higher, while the rest of the GFC affected world has since taken a pounding. Therefore, MEL/SYD are now very far from cheap in my view.
From what i've seen in Greece, property is rarely bought/sold. It is mainly passed down/inherited/fought over, so in some cases income is largely irrelevent to house prices. Probably the same in many other countries.
I agree with all the above comments. Good times are ahead for the patient ones. If we're wrong, no great loss IMHO.
A contributer to cost is tenant access.
"we don't get home till 7PM", "can you do it on Sunday?", "we don't want anyone in there without us present" etc are typical responses by some tenants, as well as not returning phone calls.
Not simply a matter of driving up and replacing a battery.
A 1 bedroom unit (seperate bedroom, lounge, kitchen etc) is much better than a studio unit. A studio is like a motel room. How long do you think you could live in a motel room for?
Garry, you sound like a smart bloke, but you seem to be putting an awful lot of energy into defending some marketing company. no doubt aimed at wood ducks. Direct that energy into your own property research/affairs and you will do well.
I would probably fling the conveyencer and get a solicitor to handle it from here.
Just curious, has the property fallen in value since 2007?LL, since you done well through this group, can you please answer some Qs about your purchases, such as….
1/ Where is the IP located/size/style/age.
2/ How much total did you pay for it.
3/ What commissions did you pay, if any.
4/ What is it rented at in general rental market or is it under a rental guarantee.
5/ Bodycorp/management charges if applicable.
If you can answer these Qs, then we may get an idea of how good your deal(s) were.
Thanks
Cargill wrote:You say you would prefer the south or southeast of Melbourne. Can you say why? Virtually all of the resources of the city are north+west of the Yarra River – commerce, entertainment, transport, hospitals, education, shopping, arts, etc – very few of these are out south or southeast. There isn't really a commercial hub out there (Frankston, Ringwood, Dandenong don't really cut it).Cargill, you need to leave the west one day and have a look over in the East. You will then realise why the equivalent house in the east costs twice as much as in the West. Supply and demand is what drives up prices, and the demand is far higher in the East. People are not stupid, they vote with their feet and can see value in a better area, even if it costs a lot more. BTW, I can't imagine which resources you are referring to.
It always comes back to supply and demand. You might think that the inner east is over priced simply because it is a lot more expensive than the inner west, but by that logic, someone from say Moe could look at the inner west and say it is way over priced compared to Moe. Will Moe catch up to the prices in the inner west?
I still think that people will only pay up to a certain amount in the west, limiting price growth. Like I said before, too many negatives which could send prices either way.
As for which part of Melbourne will boom next, i'm unsure. But i do know that Melbourne prices have shot to unrealistic levels in the last few years and we are now seeing a major correction. It was always gonna happen, like it or not, and it will continue throughout all of Melbourne, east and west.
While living close to the city in the west is appealling to many people, there are still many negatives on that side of town.
For that reason, i think that prices will only grow to a certain level, once people reach that level, many head for other areas, limiting price growth.
I don't think you will ever see Footscray and, say Richmond with similar median house prices.
Bit harsh scamp, but there is a bit of truth in what you say.
I have a problem with isolated mining towns selling houses for iner city type prices. All it takes is a new land release, the mining co to supply housing, the mine to fail etc, for your investment to be almost worthless.
Sure. its a great yield, but it wouldn't take much for it to crumble. $1300/wk for a house just isn't normal or sustainable in the long term. High risk, high return.
I'd sink any profits directly back onto your loan if i were you.
Way too much for a house in woop woop.
whiteknightoz wrote:I am a total newbie when it comes to investing so please take it easy on me for asking the following questions:1. What makes the housing market drop in value by figures of 20% odd?
2. What does this mean for land sales and new buildings – I take it new housing will dry up if established homes are a lot cheaper or the builders/land developers will have to drop their price?
3. From a rental point of view – will there be more chance of finding +ve geared properties if the price is dropping or will rent also decrease?
4. From the info provided above it appears residential is not he way to go at the moment – is commercial investment a safer alternative?
That should cover it for now …
1/ Supply vs demand make prices rise or fall, boom or bust. Factors can be availability of finance, unemployment levels, interest rates, local issues etc etc.
2/ Correct, it goes back to the supply/demand thing.
3/ I don't think rents will be affected anything like property values. Strong demand for rentals in australia generally, even if the a$$ fals out of the market. Positive geared, I doubt prices will fall that far, but we could get close.
4/ I don't know much about commercial, but i would have thought it would be higher risk, higher rewards. No guts no, glory.
I have generalised a bit here, but different areas will perform better and worse than others.
Good luck
Selling privately when you're in another country?
You must be joking.
Ring a real estate agent.
I would argue that easy credit from the mid 90s (lending 110%, low doc loans etc) have been the main driver of price hikes along with low unemployment (down from 10+% over a decade ago).
I can't see anything else of this magnitude coming along to boost availability of property, and therefore a doubling in the next 10 yrs seems very unlikely to me.
I predict a sideways market for the next few years and mild growth with inflation after that.
The killer blow would be the huge BC/maintenence costs, not stated. I doubt it would be anywhere near even CF neutral.
Your opinion is misguided.
The Jaiden Leskie thing in Moe was 11 years ago. Can't think what else media/history you may be referring to.
Maybe you're confused, thinking of Melbourne's ethnic gangs, stabbings, machete attacks, drug busts, bashings, murders etc that occur on an almost daily basis.
People shouldn't be so critical of others for having a different view on future prices.
This is a forum. Everybody's opinion helps.
I am a very experienced investor and i believe things are going to fall further and I don't bank on seeing price growth for some years now.
The time is coming to buy again. Ignore what salesmen tell you.