Forum Replies Created
- Scamp wrote:What do you mean noone knows ? I know.
I have posted all the reasons of why the housing market will crash in a thread called something similar on the Help forum U think. You can't miss it, it's got 25.000 views.If you are genuinly interested, you will read that whole post. It will take you about a weekend, but you'll be completely up to date. The article was posted in May, when everyone was still a Bull and things would pick up again 2-3 months later ( or so , everyone said ).
Please don't say that 'noone knows'. The fact that you might not understand doesn't mean others with more research or intellect can't possibly understand either. I understand and I know what is going to happen.
compare it with rolling 2 dice. If you roll once.. you might say "there's a big chance that 7 will turn up.. but it could also be another number". The more you throw those two dices ( let's say 1000 times ? ) and you will see that 7 does indeed turn up most. Luck ? no.. just mathematics.
Same happens here. It's maths. The system is a hoax. Everyone is indebted, everything is maxed out… noone can pay… unemployment will now rise, panic will occur. Don't say it cannot be predicted, because I just told you what will happen. Best thing you can do is take the advice and cash up money ( doesn't have to be in cash.. ) and sit the storm out. It could be a long storm, it could be a short, massive hurricane. But the truth is , people who overleveraged themselves in the last few years ( 2006 to 2008 ) will sink.
Scamp man,
I am not your enemy on this – I've been a Bear for the last 3 years. But no one knows exactly how bad it is going to crash, how much each state is going to be affected, how much of Australia's property market is over leveraged and so on.
Two dice don't have the human element. No-one can judge exactly how people will respond to given situations so don't pretend you can. I agree with your financial research but you can't garantee what is going to happen in Australia.
Most people alive in Australia at the moment have never seen really bad times, there is no precedent for how they will react. We may have massive bank runs – the likes of which the world hasn't been seen since medieval times. We may even linch some investors and CEOs
The government in this country (doubtful, I know) may be able to have more effect on the banks than in the US. We may all go Ned Kelly on each other, we sure as hell couldn't effectively declare martial law in a place this expansive. The point is, your maths can't predict these kind of things.harb wrote:Well if you put it this way then I have to agree with you and Scamp . As long as you have people prepared to make the move to Tumbarumba then yes, there are plenty houses available and there is no rental crisis. Now all you need is to find someone who wants to move there or at least someone we can force to move there as part of a conditional visa approval. Preferably someone working in the IT industry who does not need to commute to work each day and can be productive over a dialup line.Tumbarumba is still overpriced. Why are you so in denial about this, don't you want this country to have a more stable economic future? Don't you want your kids to be able to plan futures for themselves?
harb wrote:Thats only the garbage from Census night. Take out the holiday homes and the ones where the occupants didn't want to fill in the Census form and lied about the property being vacant and you'd be lucky to have half that numbers.
How many posters on this forum completed the last Census correctly ?Even half those numbers are enough to negate a 'rental crisis'.
harb wrote:Sydney is the world's most unaffordable city, unaffordable to whom exactly ? I haven't seen any stampede on TV so the majority must still be able to afford to live there . Besides, its all relative to your wealth, income and prospects … if you think Sydney is unaffordable for you then it would be silly to buy there, wouldn't it ?No, I am not Scamp so don't get confused but your misunderstanding of the situation has compelled me to respond. Sydney is unaffordable to average Australians.
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/06/02/Teachers_nurses_cant_afford_to_live_in_Sydney
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23793786-5017224,00.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/02/2261916.htm
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=573065
I wonder what all the property investors in Sydney are going to do when all they are left with are the homeless, residents of government housing and themselves?
harb wrote:Is this prediction coming from the same guy who gave the last tip about 2 more rate rises before Xmas ? Man, If I was you I'd go find him, beat him up real good and get my money back.
But hey, I see you you're still dreaming so I don't want to wake you up. Enjoy your dreams while they last Scamp.It's not Xmas yet…. don't count those chickens.
harb wrote:ummester wrote:[But what if he's right? Will everyone else retire?
Sometimes he is a bit harsh but Australian is long overdue for a correction in property prices – I think anyone who can't see that is in denial.
Scamp ? Is that you playing tricks again ?
I am not Scamp – I don't wear clogs.
The government in this country (doubtful, I know) may be able to have more effect on the banks than in the US. We may all go Ned Kelly on each other, we sure as hell couldn't effectively declare martial law in a place this expansive. The point is, your maths can't predict these kind of things.
