Harp, watch them put the variable up now

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24147752-14327,00.html

We are seeing a knee jerk reaction from the ANZ. It is also a responce to the government shaking the finger this morining, as shown here.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24147100-5013952,00.html

I was responding to you referring to Scamps as a doom and gloomer. That does say something about the topic, it suggests that for you doom and gloom is a downturn. I think Scamp can be harsh in his responses but doom and gloom is entirely relative.

AimHigher, why can't a downturn or correction be a positve thing? Perhaps the thought of property remaining at current price levels or going higher it is more doom and gloom than the thought of the prices going down.

It all depends on the majority view. If more than 50% of the applicable people in Australia currently have a house or mortgage, then doom and gloom would be a crash. If, however, more than 50% of applicable people aren't yet invested in the market, then a crash would be a godsend.

Here we go

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_may04/bu_0504_2.pdf

People now aged between 50 and 70 have far more to loose from a crash than the rest of Australia. If anything, the numbers have probably consolidated more around that age group in the 4 years since this report.

One man's doom is another man's boom, or so it would seem.

Yossarion, the inflated imigration numbers are probably spin be the Real Estate industry.

imugli,

So how is this working out for the company at the moment? Are things selling at 'market value'? Are you allowed to discuss it, in a non-specific way of course.

The difference is that you are allowed to walk away from your loans in the USA, you are only allowed to walk away in Australia once you are legally declared bankrupt. If too many people are being declared bankrupt here, i am sure the govt. will move the goalposts, so that the debt will stand. I guess, in the long run, as in the US, the banks will end up with the debt. If this happens, it makes me believe that high interest rates will be here for a while yet. Layman's view, I know, but I can't see any other choice for the banks.

It's the children of those that died in the great wars and survived the recession that are the biggest profiters.

Oh Devo, though there is some point in what you are saying about the forum being for investment  advice, residential property investors do have (like it or not) a responsibility to the society from which they invest.

You mean Gen X stealing from Gen Y or Boomers stealing from X & Y?

In Australia, I only see the Boomers (and some of the very old X's) doing the investing. Sure, there are some younger X's and Y's without kids that have jumped in as investors in the last couple of years but surely they are going to be burnt badly as they all seem well over leveraged. The Boomers are the only ones who had ownership behind them to make safe investments.

And no, ultimately I don't feel like I can live with the old farts stealing from future generations (they never had any hard times, how soon they forgot the lessons taught to them by thier parents, eh?) but what can I do about it? it's not like I can get Australia to adopt Logan's Run type policy is it?

The public sector wants them out (over 55s that is) but they won't leave because of thier 'investment plans'. Won't even take good VRs, because they haven't quite secured that 10th property yet. Greedy old buggars.

Sorry, massive rant there, but as you can probably tell, i am aware where most of the greed is generated. But what is the point? Why would the banks open investments with such limited futures (in lifespan that is). Most Boomers will be either dead or dribbling through dentures in nursing homes within 20 years so what does thier debt accomplish?

They'll hand property onto kids that don't respect them or it because they were never there, or are on thier 4th marriage and can't remember which one's are theirs. They will be cruely treated in thier dotage by nurses and cops that they have forced to live like shit on the outer fringes. In the end, what will they gain, for anyone?

What confuses me most about you Scamp is why all the effort to warn people? When markets peak like they are now, it is usually only the mid level investors who are stupid enough to keep buying. The FHBs have been squeezed out and the new investors are stretched to their limit. That only leaves the Boomers competing with each other in a dying market, for rents they will never be able to achieve. Why warn them? Why not let them compete each other into bankruptcy and then come in and pick up what you want when the dust has settled?

I can't disagree with that – which is why I am sure that socially, even more than financially, the property market in Australia has to correct in the order of 30%. Greed is killing this country and oddly I have never cared as much about it (never was very patriotic) until I could see it dying.

ErikH, RP data is a company that profits exclusively from the property market, which slant do you think they prefer to give? There is no way the information they provide is unbiased – they need a strong market to remain operational.

Consider this

http://www.jenman.com.au/news_article.php?id=226

I never realized, before skulking around here, how much of an industry putting spin on the property market has become. Oddly, it seems to be driven by the banks. This kind of scares me, don't we have enough debt with the banks as it is? I mean, how much debt can they safely create?

Yea, if there was any work in Tumbarumba…. Tumbarumba is priced correctly for a suburb of a capital city, not an area with decreasing population and employment.

Awsome name though…. Tumbarumba, just rolls of the tongue.