We'll see, I guess.

My bet is that, even if we are at the bottom, prices aren't going to go up quickly. Too much uncertainty out there. I am not so sure that there are enough buyers left for all the stock on the market either, now that a lot of speculators chasing capital gains have given up on it.

harb wrote:

Have you heard the latest from the GW academics ? The reason we didn't have an increase in global temperatures so far is because of all that pollution coming out of India and China. The smog blanket reflects the sun's rays and it helps to keep the planet at least 1-2 degrees cooler then it would otherwise be, which would imply that if the Chinese & Indians ever stop polluting we are all doomed.

Hey Harb,

Off current posts but back on original topic – do you still think property prices can't undergo a major downturn? You still a proptimist?

How about in it for the industry? Proof of future employment? Convince the public that there is a reason to need the scientific community and not opose the grants.

Also, like Harb noted, there is a political side to this. Governements need a crisis to keep the public in control. The right has opted for terrorism and war, the left likes the environment. Either way, it isn't so much about making individuals rich as it is about convincing the public that there is a reason for those individuals to be employed.

The climate on this planet is cyclic, it has to do with the 'wobble' of the earth on it's axis and a build up to polar shift. There is notthing any of us can do about it. Climate Change due to polar shift is real, is happening and is not our fault. It has happened before and mankind has survived it. I could be wrong but I think it comes around every 12K years. 

Global warming, on the other hand, is a get rich quick scheme for the scientific community. The scam is convincing us that we are responsible for what is happenning to the planet and that we need the scientists to save us. What we are experiencing is natural, cyclic and unstoppable. All we can do is prepare.

The crisis is not only fear. Assets are overvalued and the market is trying to work out exactly what they are worth – trouble is that it is turning out to be quite a bit less than what has been invested in them.

Say I charge $20 PH and make a chair with $20 worth of wood – the base value of the chair is $40, right? Then the delivery man and the retailer have to make a cut, so the chair ends up selling for $80 – $100. That's all good and makes sense but now there are all these middle men and third parties investing in that chair, proping it's price up to $300 or so. But what have the investors or middle men actually done to add value to that asset? What is the chair really worth, especially if it is made in China:)

Even if what you say is true, it is better to wait until June 2009 (or close to) than jump in now.

The 14 or 21K will still be there in June and I for one would preffer to wait and see if the Australian property market follows the US and UK market on the downward spiral. If it doesn't, well April/May next year will be the time to buy – more vendors will be desperate and easy to talk down. If it does, then let the governement keep their 14K, the savings when the market hits bottom will be heaps greater.

Arguing about when the depression started is like arguing about weather or not we are in a recession now. If X amount of time in a recession is needed for it to technically be a depression, does the depression actually start with the onset of the recession or when that time has been covered and likewise a recession?

As to the dates being close this time and last time – it is interesting.

I also find it interesting that there was a terrorist attack on wall street 7-8 years before the 1929 stock market crash. Who says history never repeats, eh?

So, if we wish to speculate on our future by our past, we can assume that the looming global depression will hit Australia later, harder and last for slightly less time as we are still primarily a commodoties exporter.

My advice, get a secure job now and don't worry too much about pay. The guarantee of 45K a year in 5 years is going to be worth heaps more than 105K a year is now.

Harb, where have you been?

Global warming may be a myth to some but most scientists agree on climate change. I recon there is sweet FA we can do about it now, it is a natural cycle, like property devaluations:)

30(odd)% from the 2007 peak – average house prices of 250K – is sustainable on current wages of 55K.

So, if prices have already moved 5-10% from last years peak a further 25% is reasonable to assume. 40% may be the elastic low point for any one lucky (or smart) enough to purchase at the right time.

Nice idea:) Enjoy the beach before it's gone…

This FHBG of 21K is doing funny things to the market, already. I thought it would create a mini boom – and it may – but it seems to have also created a massive dose of fear amongst REAs, investors and vendors. Sure, prices are being whacked up by 7-30K but there is an air of 'this is it – last chance to get out closing down sale' type of thing.

Kind of wierd that it is co-inciding with spring, the best time to sell… or perhaps not. Media is divided on the topic but if you look around you can find stats on new housing credit created this year and see that, in the last month, it went over a cliff. That's ok, housing credit has gone over a cliff before (and recently too) – just not at this time of year.

There was all this REI and media hype of undersupply, which may or may not be true – who the hell knows anymore. Whatever, developers have been developing pretty hard, right? And why not? Prices are as high as they have ever been, rental yields likewise and, apparently, there is a shortage of supply. So a fair whack of new stock getting ready for sale from this spring is needed?

I guess a lot is riding on really strong sales (at whatever price) for the rest of this year.