True, but there would be no bubble either and the economy would be stable.

I don't mind people taking risks with their money but the extent of the risk and the amount of people taking them over the last 10 years have had an adverse effect on the finances of those that would prefer to play it safe. That isn't fair.

This wasn't a horse race.

Though Steve would have had no idea when this crash would come, I bet he knew that the investment strategies of the past decade were unsustainable and the same for Australia's commodity boom.

Generally a vehicle speeding towards a slow moving object (such as pedestrians) results in a CRASH:)

harb wrote:

So you are predicting a prolonged recession and unemployment at 9%  ? I've seen better in early 80's.
Property prices about to get smashed ? I don't think so. For that to happen we'd have to be in a property bubble which we aren't, despite what the potential buyers on ghpc would want us to believe.  Btw, have you actually been in a recession yourself  or are you just reciting from the ghpc manual ?

I've lived through 2. Worked through 1 and was a student during my first. Luckilly, then as now, I have been in the government's employ. I have only been a private employee in the early naughties.

During both recessions, house prices did decline.

In the 80s, I remember my parent's peers putting of moving, upgrading, holidays, new cars and all sorts of things just to concentrate on the mortgages.

I had one peer with a house when we went into the 90's recession and he was very concerned about his equity. He worked hard and did a lot of cashies (was in a niche trade) to make sure that he stayed in front. I had friends that worked in the building industry and their incomes suffered quite a bit – went from drinking Turkey to goon:)

That aside, the build up to this has been far more dangerous then either the 80's or 90's downturns. Our debt levels are more extreme and the correction has been put off (is still being put off) by goverment and bank policy for far longer. Bubbles are bigger, the population spread is more unstable and indulgence is ridiculously high. This is a perfect recession storm, sycronised and global, like the 20s – which only leads to one thing.

I hope you aren't too highly leveraged harb, because I'd hate to see you loose your sense of humour…

Our upward momentum will be based on our economy – not other counties housing markets. I think it is wishful thinking to believe that if the American property market starts to trend up Australia's will also by default. We didn't trend down when they started, did we? Australia always suffers a lag and some states in Australia always lag more than others.

Besides, who says America will trend up again. This could be it for the US. We may have to wait for China to develop enough to sustain it's own growth before Australia booms again.

Ultimately, though, you answer is in your question. Housing in Australia will trend up when it is affordable and economically viable to do so. If wages are increasing and employment is going up and commodities are booming, then there is a fair chance the market will trend up again.

Nah, Adelaide was the last big boom – will hurt equal to, if not harder than Perth by the time it is all done and dusted. Canberra and Darwin prices were also increasing dramatically into 2007. Sydney is the only place that has really stagnated since 2006.

So basically, they are trying to sell less for more and wonder why it isn't really going off? I went back to Perth twice last year – it's grown quite a lot but property prices in places like Manduarah were out of control.

Have you ever been a mod or ran a forum? it's your forum – you can pretty much do what you want.

Not saying that deleting posts because of an agenda is honest or ethical but it is the owners forum to do with as they choose.

Scamps posts drew me here and to the GHPC forums, everyone remembers that he was preaching the crash a year or 2 back. By the same token, everyone with half a brain could see it coming. Unsustainable bubbles always burst.

Oh, C2, if you are getting good offers in this market – why don't you sell? It's going to get worse, make yourself more liquid now. My 2 cents.

Seems like the 30% below peak I was arguing may have been a miscalculation – looks like we are heading to 40% or greater now.

You know what I mean, I have been waiting for a downturn in capitalism as a whole and it is finally happening. Since the 80's greed has been rampant but it is on the mend.

Why would I be trying to make money if I am waiting for the whole process to change?

C2, can you say denial?