10-15% + 5-10% already experienced = 25%. A year ago, you lot thought I was full of it for claiming 30% drops were coming. 25% is pretty close and I am still sure theat the national average drop will be at least 30% by the time this is done.

40% and above will be in the worst places. Small costal, mining towns etc.

Where I was wrong is that I thought we would crash hard and fast like America but now it seems we will have the slow Japan style deflation. Better for the country but worse for PPORs buyers. House prices aren't going up any time soon and, though some loans would cost close to current rental prices, long term the best stratergy is still to save as much of the purchase cost as possible (or buy a bigger house) sometime over the next 5-10 years.

Now, if you want a big tele, get in before July but as close to july as possible (after all the government stimulus do dads are done with). Luxury electronics goods are going to skrocket next financial year for a whole multitude of reasons (none of which will make the producers of retailers any better of).

The new financial year will also be when we get a good idea of how low house prices will go, I recon.

Just the fact that it is a currently deflating asset class….

True. But it is a good bet that is is long term this time like the 30s. After the 30's it took the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s before greed truly corrupted the functioning of society again. 80's led to the 90's which led to now, in an exponential fashion. Sure, one can argue it was growing again before the 80's but not to the extent where it outwieghed reason or social/governemnt control.

Yes and No. There is an uncomplicated way of looking at this, without the smoke and mirrors of politics and economics. If Rudd succeeds, we end up with slow deflation of assets values, very much like Japan. If he fails, we end up with fast deflation, very much like America.

katelea,

I don't know legal ins and outs, just basic tenants rights in the NSW area.

Surely the tenants are aware that you plan to sell? Perhaps you should just approach them directly, or via the agent, to break the deadline to them. You sound like you have been a good landlord and, as long as your tenants are reasonable people, they should try and accomodate you. From the tenants POV, if you tell them now they get 42 days to find a new place rather than 30 (assuming you are in NSW).

Even if you serve the notice after the exchange of contracts the tenants can leave before the full 30 days so you may loose rent if they find something quickly anyway.

Also, if you serve the notice before the settlement and the tenants don't leave then you have done everything in your power to ensure vacant possession. Not sure of the exact laws but am fairly confident that you cant be found in breech of contract for tenants that fail to leave after they have been served a valid notice. It would be the new owners problem with the tribunal then, wouldn't it?

Only downside is that the contract fails, buyer can't get finance or something. In this case you could always go back to the tenant and offer them to stay till another buyer comes along.

harb wrote:

If this is how you really feel about property in this country then I feel sorry for you because you will forever be renting while waiting for prices to fall to what you perceive as good.  The only problem with that is the seller also has to consider your offer good value and accept it or else its NO DEAL.
 
Anyway, I think you are wrong and properties in this countries are undervalued. I'm not sure what type of property you are looking for,  in what city or what price range but I can assure you that you are wrong, prices are very affordable and at the bottom of the cycle. Now its the best time to buy and you will never buy it this cheap again.  Yes it was a spruike but not less accurate then your comment and at least just as helpful.   

properties in this countries  – I never knew you had a literacy problem Harb.

You must be bored like me today and come to argue the point we have been for the past year or so. Sellers and buyers will both meet the market.

40% falls in some US states is also history.

A year or more ago I predict that the economy of the western world is in for doom and gloom because we are all living beyond our means. You dismiss it and preach that property is the ultimate investment that can never fail. Who seems closer to the truth now?

None of us should be sold a dream that requires parents not to have time for their children.

I feel sorry for you in this situation but property in this country has been and is still incredibly overvalued. Exactly the kind of stress that you went through here is what is being corrected and why I stress that jumping into property now will just bring you more heartache.

In 3-4 years, however, you should be fine. Though I still belive that the idea of investing in residential property by average Joes is to the detriment of society and will always lead to more situations like yours.

And, BTW, how do you know what I have and have not lived though? The great Australian dream ain't all it's cracked up to be – think outside that box.

So spend time with your kids. They are more important than any kind of financial or material gain you can make in your lifetime. Your kids are real and wealth is an illusion.

How much do you need to be 'comfortable'?

Without you working (or with you moving to part-time hours), can you afford clothes that fit, food and a roof over you families heads? Do you need anything other than that?

Really?

Why do you think the world is in the mess it is currently in? Perhaps because the whole of western society has been throwing it's money around without thinking it through…

How about having a go at doing something constructive and not trying to make money for jam? How about learning a skill that society actually needs and then working for a living? I know, it's a bizzare concept, and a tough realization, that most of us just aren't the Alan Bonds we thought we were.

Why don't they say out of 5, expect 1 highflyer, 1 dog and 3 in between?