what nicholas_b is trying to say, I think, is that debt is not wealth. It is only because of faith in every increasing capital gains with housing assets down under that people have began to believe that it is – 'equity maaate'.50k in the bank is a more tangible asset than 50k in equity. It is only if you believe Australian house values are going…[Read more]

re the govt supporting house prices – there is a little more at play downunder than majority voter satisfaction. The govt does not know how to support the ageing population as it is and with a population bubble around the boomers, whom are mostly invested in property, a crash would lead to some very disgruntled peers of politicians and no-way for…[Read more]

toe wrote:
I'm not convinced that 1.4million investors will all decide their investments are duds in the same month, without some major influence from the wider economy. That's what a crash is you realise, everyone running for the exit at the same time.

1.4 mil in the same month seems unlikely, doesn't it? 1.4 mil over a year or 2 seems more p…[Read more]

Gmoney, increase and they have you where they want you.Listen to the others here – they have brought many houses. Don't get sucked in.

kind of what white_goodman saidBanks can't create lvr out of nothing, even with no fractional reserve limit like Australia. Without new money enterring the housing market, there will be no capital appreciation in the asset class. That is why the FHB boost worked so well, it leveraged the whole market up.Investors can sit on overvalued houses but…[Read more]

thecrest wrote:
Hi UnmesterYour logo is driving me to sell off all my beef stocks, and apart from whatever the market is doing, your bear's a wrong'un –  due for a major correction.             Cheersthecrest

They're just cuddling:) It's meant to show that bulls and bears can get along, even over Ozzie houses:)

So, out of interest, how many PIs from this forum are trying to sell now?Are you willing to drop prices enough to undercut similar property and get a sale, or are you determined to get a minum price?

Mark Kelman wrote:
Perhaps the question shouldn't be so much "will Australian house prices fall?" but what are we (as individual investors) doing to offset the potential risks, in our portfolios and investing strategies.

Smart thinking.

Yes, it would be better for the country as a whole if there was a long stagnation or slow deflation, rather than an outright correction/crash of either 20 or 50%. Still, stagnation or deflation would hurt the plans of many.Who knows what will happen – it depends on so much. IRs, credit availabilty, available stock, the rest of the economy and, o…[Read more]

SteveMcKnight wrote:
G'day again team.Sell up some stock? I'm always buying and selling, so I guess I'm doing both.I want to reiterate a point though… it's because we think a property crash can't happen that it actually (a crash) can.If we said 'okay – a property crash can happen if…', then that would be a much better dialogue than simply…[Read more]

Oh – while we're on Buffet insights, investors should never forget:Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Ask yourselves, are Australian's really being…[Read more]

SteveMcKnight wrote:
Thanks for the discussion so far.Be careful not to make this an 'Australian vs US' issue. It's not, and that's the point Buffett is making. No one saw it coming because there was no concept that it could happen.We tell ourselves the same things in Australia and argue how and why we are different. The simple truth is that it…[Read more]

nicolas_b,Your post is very correct. Unfortunately this bit:_______________________________________________________________________I am ashamed to say that the real damage was done during the Howard, Macfarlane years._______________________________________________________________________will not be remembered or known by most Australians when the…[Read more]

DWolfe wrote:
Hi usual gang I have to say I disagree that most renters would like govt housing. Most renters want FREEDOM, and CHOICE which is why they rent. Many renters never want a mortgage, many renters move often for work so buying is impractical. Not all renters want to be tied to paying a mortgage for 30 years.

I never said most renters.…[Read more]

Open a FHSA and put 5500 in it for you and the missus each FY until you reach your 80k maximum. Then, if you aren't ready to buy, leave it in the bank and keep adding all of your spare cash to it and you will have a healthy sum growing at at least 6% PA.So long as the housing market isn't re-stimulated with FHBG boosts, there is no way a housing…[Read more]

harb wrote:
I think its probably because while everyone needs shelter not everyone needs to live in the top end of town so when the economy suffers the top end gets hit more.   Of course when people go silly and build an excessive number of homes like they did in some parts of US even the low end suffers until population increases takes care o…[Read more]

DWolfe wrote:
Ummester are you an actor? Lovely if so.

<moderator: delete language>

DWolfe wrote:
You would be having a great day on the share market today then? I know I am!

Can't be bothered today, too hard to concentrate ATM. I am off work and financial tinkering for a while, <moderator: delete language>

DWolfe wrote:
It is all about…[Read more]

devo76 wrote:
Who says that the someone on the average inner city wage must be able to afford the average inner city house on the one income.

No person says, though history does dictate.

devo76 wrote:
These people more often than not would have had equity or cash prior to purchasing in the inner city. They would not borrow the lot. You work…[Read more]

Oh, BTW, I guess we are slightly above average wage earners, with Mrs ummester on 30odd k part time and me on 80odd k (with OT, acting, and promotional bonuses occurring regularly) but even our comfortable income isn't enough to comfortably buy property in Aus ATM.

I got a FHSA for me and the missus. Guaranteed way to turn 50k into 80k over 4 FYs, which is pretty good returns for a safe bet. Catch is it has to be used on housing or super in Aus.If property does correct, it gives me a solid 30% deposit.If property doesn't correct and stagnates, its still a 15-25% deposit depending where I buy.If property…[Read more]