fWord wrote:
Thanks for the article. However I'm beginning to feel that there is no need to substantiate the presence of a bubble, nor the need to prove that it doesn't exist.There will always be people on both sides of the argument, and one of them will take the prize. Whatever it is, this argument is getting old.At the end of the day, the…[Read more]

Scott No Mates wrote:
Bubble , no. In need of a correction, probably yes.

Interesting. So what's the difference? When does a correction become a bubble or visa verca?Did the UK have a correction or did a bubble burst? What about Ireland and the US?I don't have an answer – just think that defining the diffence between an 'overvalued' market and…[Read more]

emptyvessel wrote:
Can someone define the term "over-leveraging" for me? I hear it alot, but nobody ever seems to quantify it. And if it is quantified by a number, does that number change based on other conditions or is it a cosmological constant (or fudge factor0?

This is my take only – don't bite off more than you can chew.Don't invest…[Read more]

Oh, I totally agree with Steve's take that the RBA will lower rates – soon and fast. Have thought it for ages but have just been before the times or overzealous in my bearishness:)Surprisingly, I fully agree with most of the stuff xdrew posts lately? They say the crash arrives when the last bear capitulates – perhaps it's when the bulls and bears…[Read more]

Debt has been growing unsustainably for a long time now – possibly as far back as the 80s. It has to correct. Doesn't matter what is done, the underlying problem has to go away for real growth to resume.Only sustainable solution is a deleveraging the likes of which the world hasn't seen since the great depression.That's my take anyway.Doesn't mean…[Read more]

That is some good advice xdrew and I agree with your take on inflation.It may be rising inflation that led to so much housing debt, as you suggest. It's such a chicken and egg thing though. Does credit expansion lead to inflation or is inflation a result of credit expansion? Or, do they just feed off each other in 'good times'?I think that…[Read more]

I think, in the simplest terms, the RBA has been caught between a rock and a hard place for a while now.So much of the economy and state government reveniew has become dependant on an active housing market. But, if the market is too active and grows less affordable, then the effects this has on retail and other industry is more pronounced.IRs d…[Read more]

Yes, decreasing the amount of government would be a good start. I have long held that a single country does not need national and state governing bodies – a national government overseeing councils ran mostly by residents should be enough. Then things like law, order, health, safety and so on could be controlled at a national level whilst more…[Read more]

emptyvessel wrote:
Ok, I am listening. Can you give me a few examples of how the money an investor in property now can access those investments in the other assets you mentioned? I imagine that there would need to be some sort of financial incentive for the investors to choose those particular investments. Like, say, a return for the risk they…[Read more]

emptyvessel wrote:
Interesting theory. Are you able to elaborate in more detail how you came to this conclusion?

Simple. If less is spent on housing more can be spent on other things – investment in productive assets, invention, science, arts – whatever.

emptyvessel wrote:
Nothing good can come from being negative. Nothing.

So housing that is more affordable isn't good?Sentiment drives buyer confidence in many cases. Negative sentiment will deter buyer confidence, sell less units, lead to price declines and make housing more affordable.IMO (just to clarify) cheaper houses are better for society…[Read more]

My eyes are wet with sadness reading this Angel – my deepest sympathy to you.As a parent, I think there is nothing as heartwrenching as the loss as you have sufferred. I hope you and your family find the strength in yourselves to support each other through what must be an extremely difficult time.Again, my deepest sympathy.

Nathan Birch wrote:
p.s. The guy with the bull and bear avatar I LOVE IT! Classic!

They're cuddling – proving that bulls and bears can get along:)You write some insightful stuff.I also believe the gov, RBA or both will take action before our correction is done – just not sure how and when. And I believe that once things start rolling, it's…[Read more]

emptyvessel,we were obviously thinking of different hats:)With your hats I'd be blood coloured – dark red, or black red:)

fWord wrote:
– Are you a bear, bull or a 50-50?

Depends – on housing, 90% bear & 10% bull. On investment in general 50/50. Productive investment is good for everyone.

fWord wrote:
– How many properties do you control?

None

fWord wrote:
– Last question: do you NOT control any property now and wish you did?

No to both.

fWord wrote:
Not an…[Read more]

emptyvessel wrote:
I find it interesting that "bears" have this almost fanatical need to be right. It is in almost every post by a person that identifies themselves as a bear. They also tend to be "black-hat" or "critical" thinkers that are fantastic at finding statistics, graphs and interpreting the numbers. Obviously to support their negative…[Read more]

xdrew wrote:
I assume someone pays you for this garbage opinion?

Why?

xdrew wrote:
The core reasons for the dollar boost is because at this stage the collapsing factors that the rest of the world has arent present here. America is STUFFED now. The call came for it to do something in March .. and it … extended to resetting its debt line which…[Read more]

harb wrote:
What would you say will likely cause the average punter/investor to panic , rising rental returns ? I believe that your average punter/investor would be unlikely to have purchase a property post GFC for a quick CG so as long as rents continue to go up they would have little reason to panic.  Anyway, that is assuming wages and…[Read more]

harb wrote:
Isn't APF the forum where most of the refugees from Global House Price Crash Forum gather ?

Nah, not the smart and reasonable ones anyway. We have our own quite place now.

mattnz wrote:
Confirmation of some of my predictions in the last couple of days: Concerns about banks being able to rely on LMI providers to bail them out. http://www.smh.com.au/business/mortgage-insurers-a-greater-threat-to-banks-fitch-20110517-1eqns.html?rand=1305700251520 Credit downgrades for the big 4 Australian banks as they are highly…[Read more]