harb wrote:
Only problem with that is the nice coastal towns will be overcrowded coastal towns in 20 years time and meanwhile the rental returns won't be as good as something in the major capital cities.  Wouldn't the better strategy be buying  a lower priced place on a larger block closer to the CBD that gave you a better rental return and t…[Read more]

harb wrote:
You too unmester, I gather you have not purchased your dream home yet and are still waiting for that  major market correction ?

Nah, not yet. 2014 probably now. I took some of your advice, though. I decided not to buy in ACT. Will build my FHSA all the way up to 80 odd k (combined with Mrs ummester) and buy at a place we want to…[Read more]

harb wrote:

ummester wrote:
Recent history has shown that property is the winner, not all history. And that is a recent history with sever market distortions.

Depends what you consider recent. Australia being a young country only allows us to look back a couple of hundred years but boy how I wish my great great great grandparents bought me a…[Read more]

Terryw wrote:
Does the government often get 'upset' and not obey their own laws?

All the time:) You should try working for them.That's not what I meant, though. The scenario where you use future rental income to secure a PPOR loan shows the buyer's mindset from the outset and that mindset is not in line with the requirements of the grant.It is…[Read more]

dtrump wrote:
If you are buying the property as a long term IP but in the short term (6 months) as a PPOR in order to get the FHOG, can you still use the proposed rental income as part of your loan application to incease your sevicabiltiy?

That's an interesting question. I wonder, if a loan was allowed under that pretext and the government g…[Read more]

James,If there is an under supply, why is stock rising so quickly of late? There is an under supply of homes advertised at a reasonable price, not an under supply of homes for sale.All the FHB boost in 2009 did was majorly over value the bottom end. The top end still hasn't recovered and the middle is squished in, well, the middle:) Trouble is, if…[Read more]

[/quote]Yes they did disappear straight into nursing homes or aged care !There is a theory that economic recession and depressions occur due to large demographic groups aging like baby boomers. It is roughly a 30 year cycle. 1939, 1969, 2009 [/quote]Yes, duckster, I agree with the idea that demographics drive the economy entirely. Always have.One…[Read more]

eloi – do some reading on the last great depression. Bills will become the last of your worries. People will learn to HTFU.During the last Depression there was over 30% unemployment at one stage in Australia and many people got used to eating roos or rabbits full of buckshot every 3rd or 4th day.But it isn't all doom and gloom. So long as the…[Read more]

DWolfe wrote:
Anyone wanna have a guess as to whether the world really will end in 2012? I wanna put it in my Outlook. All the American docos on the subject may be scaring the Natives.

The world should be fine. I have deciphered the real meaning of the 2012 mystery – it's about the Australian property market:P

v8ghia wrote:
I think Dan42 has made such an important point that many overlook – there are indeed 'non financial reasons' people could/should/might buy – including the emotional side, or feeling of security or ownership if you prefer. Not a feeling money can buy I'm afraid.Cheers

Emotional stimulus has also been greater over the past decade…[Read more]

It was an interesting doco and I agree with devo – nice steady growth is probably the best option.Nice steady growth will not sustain current debt levels or capital gains that have been experienced in property over the last 15 odd years, though. these things require exponential growth – the kind which our gubberment was previously pushing for.…[Read more]

Terryw wrote:
Ummester – it looks like your 'bearish'

Nah, really:)

Kochie was all bearish in 2008 as well, remember? Then he got all bullish again in 2009 when he saw the level of stimulus the government threw at our building industry. He can't make up his mind. He's reading the market and not predicting it.I thought the re-softening would be March this year and was early by 3 months, which just go to show, it…[Read more]

DWolfe wrote:
Hehehe, Mooooooo! LOLD 

Don't you mean Baaaaa?

hey DWolfe,Surely researching a 400k investment for 2 years is prudent?Fools rush in.It isn't that there are so many honest to goodness PIs out there, it's just that so many Australians are NG now. I plan to use NG to pay of the house I want to live in and don't give a damn about being a PI – it's just the best way to do it in this country…[Read more]

For the 50 odd years prior to the last decade or so, Australians could buy an average house on a quarter acre block in an area the local government had plans to fully develop for 3-5x average income. What is unaffordable? Heroin junkies can pay for their habits but not much else.Perhaps the question should be are current prices reasonable when…[Read more]

hschmid wrote:
Beware the bear

Bears are nice, they just want to cuddle bulls – hence my avatar.Listings are up 50% in a lot of QLD. Perth and WA are rising fast also. Either of those states will be places for bearish bargains in a year or so – so long as the government doesn't re-stimulate the industry with some new grant types, further PI tax…[Read more]

I got my historical data from the ABS.I guess your logarithmic graphs represent rate of change and, like you have noticed, it is here that IR changes really start to correlate. IRs up, prices down and visa-verca.Just work out an averge yearly IR rate from the data you have, its all you really can do to bring the 2 graphs in line.A logarithmic…[Read more]

I have run these figures before, but not in as much detail.When you plot them against average wages and IRs over the same period, it yields interesting results.IRs have a very strong inverse correlation to house price growth, over the same period.

devo76 wrote:
People with a grip on how the real world operates knew the government would get involved in the event of a decline. They even said they would do it again if required. Why would anyone think they would not do the same this time. Sounds like some players are falling for the same trap. I predict posts in a couple of years saying how…[Read more]