patriotsoldier wrote:
Take a look at precious metals. smart money, maybe…. maybe not. alot of money…… yes.

Agree with precious metals. Since the world abandoned the gold standard the market has been scared off the world currency, USD on two occassions. Both times gold climbed to a price where the value of all gold in the US treasury was…[Read more]

AussieHousePrices wrote:
I’m still not convinced.  You’re looking at the weighted average for 8 capital cities.  Is it possible that the plateau you’re seeing is really just an average of rising markets (such as Perth) and falling ones (such as Sydney)?

All flat line indices will contain both rising and falling markets within it. Even rising o…[Read more]

AussieHousePrices wrote:
Hi Guys,  I’m not so sure there needs to be an “event” in order to pop our housing bubble. With the American housing bubble, or the ‘87 stock market crash for example, nothing specific happened that caused them to burst.  A bubble relies on a constant supply of new entrants to keep it going.  One day, you eventually r…[Read more]

pharvie wrote:
 It usually takes some economic reason to trigger a significantfinancial event

Thanks pharvie, you have crystalised my point in that sentence.

pharvie wrote:
You can argue these points until you are blue in the face, but at the end of the day unless you are just living somewhere and for some reason don't care what happens to your house price, it is an investment decision.The botttom line is most people will not have an exit strategy except to do what everyone else will do and rush f…[Read more]

white_goodman wrote:

toe wrote:
if there's a crash it will be due to wider economic conditions. A China bust maybe, or the world loses confidence the world currency (US dollar), given the amount of money they've "printed" recently.

look at the source of funds for our major banks in financing residential property, our banks arent as immune as…[Read more]

nicolas_b wrote:
I am not saying that Australian property is expensive, there is a bubble and it's going to pop. I do not know.  Let's just look at property investors.Toe, these quotes are from this article from morgan stanley"Australia has become a nation of landlords: in 1988-89, 608,000 taxpayers reported rental income; by 2007-08 1,765,000…[Read more]

white_goodman wrote:
yes but where does the demand come from if people cannot afford to buy? Cos supply will increase (new developments etc), unless you plan on closing a vast majority of the economy down. I cant imagine all the baby boomers having a nice cash flow nest egg after retirement many will downsize to get their hands on some…[Read more]

white_goodman wrote:
your first sentence makes zero sense.

I can only assume you've misunderstood my point, because it makes perfect sense.

Quote:
From SMHAbout a quarter of  Australians rent their homes through the private rental market — and nearly half of these (45%) are helped to make the rent through subsidies from Commonwealth Rent A…[Read more]

white_goodman wrote:
with housing at record unaffordable levels, baby boomers drifting off into retirement, and banks needing to create more and more debt to keep the status quo, where is the demand gonna come from to keep prices escalating upwards?is this sustainable or plausible? I think notthe party may continue for a while, but when China…[Read more]

If you believe Australia will have it's own GFC, have a look at how much effort the international banks had to put in to to cause the GFC from which many would benefit. A US government report suggests that they all new, or ought to have known the crisis was coming. It wasn't just caused by some over priced housing. It was international banks con…[Read more]

There is a possibility of house prices declining in Australia, however to compare our situation with the US is a mistake. In order to believe a crash will happen here you'd have to see a way around some key differences. First, rental vacancy rates in the US at the time were as high as 10% in various areas, they had been building far more housing…[Read more]

luke86 wrote:

toe wrote:

luke86 wrote:
If property prices increase on average by say 6% a year (a low figure), then a $500 000 property will increase in value by $30 000 every year.

I'm not so sure about that.

There are many opinions out there on where the property market is heading, and there always will be. If you think it will keep…[Read more]

Accountant wont really help, you can call a quantity surveyor and ask questions. But from a non expert who has done this before, you can claim all renovations regardless of when they were carried out (after 1985). If you don't have receipts then the Quantity Surveyor is qualified to estimate the values by visiting the property. If you have…[Read more]

Why do you want to index your returns? For example for me the answer would be to see if my investment was still working as hard as other potential investments. Therefore I'd take the 'current net income'/'current equity'. Then compare that to the 'cash on cash' return available from other investments, ie 'net rent'/'cash invested'.This way…[Read more]

By the way, I'm just a private investor who'd like access to RPData. I'm in contact with a rep who tells me that we dont need to be REAs but we will need a signature from an REA or valuer to say the data is for private use.If you'd like to know more PM me and I can give you the reps details, if you're serious he can do an online walk through demo,…[Read more]

Michael thanks for that, I think we may be heading down the same path after all.

Yes seven sales will make it a little hard difficult in terms of having ‘confidence’ in the figures. In fact there is a calculation that quants use called confidence interval. If I can find it I’ll post the link to a website that calculates it for you. It essentially…[Read more]

Thank you Derek it does help. I should be more clear because I was also refering to valuation using yields over a period of time for the suburb, rather than the yield on the investment property. In any case it sounds like we agree that it is more important to be happy with ones valuation and rental expectations, than to get a client that is paying…[Read more]

Thanks Alistair

Craig Sillitoe

Michael I’m afraid I don’t agree that statistics lie. They can either be massaged by statisticians, or the people interpreting them can missunderstand the bounds of their use.

On median prices I agree with you,and I would say that median prices are of less value because they dont decern between different land sizes, quality of housing etc. So if…[Read more]