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  • Profile photo of supermansuperman
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    @superman
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    February 17, 2005 - 12:18 am

    Wow look at page 13, “Sydney House Prices” they did exactly what i said, a straight line up until 1990!! :D:D:D hehehe I’m happy about that :) that was independant thought [blush2]

    Profile photo of supermansuperman
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    February 17, 2005 - 12:11 am

    Hehe I’m too slow, you already updated with link :) wow, this looks like good stuff… time to read the whole thing. Thanks also wayneL [blush2]

    Now… how about some opposing views? I love understanding (or trying to understand) both sides. I usually google one bias, then the other to try and get a balance. Actually that is one of the reasons I’m back here, was looking for the “long live real estate” perspective (no insult implied).

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    February 17, 2005 - 12:06 am

    Ta Foundation,
    actually I was going to add a bullet point on demographics. The official forcast is for 25 million people by 2050 and very little, if any growth there after. I do no believe that a 25% increase is enough to strain supply. Australia is 98% the size of continental USA, which has ~300 mil, albeit Aus is a little less temperate, read habitable. But furthermore, I am not even convinced that lack of supply could result in prices breaking free of the controlling economic bounds hilighted in my previous post. E.g. If Australia WERE to grow to 50 million, does that then mean we can afford higher housing as a % of our income? I don’t think so, but again, this is up for discussion. [eh]

    You bring up an interesting point about inflation trending downward and RE appreciation trending upward. But I believe this is just a short term demographically influenced blip. That is national supply, as discussed above, is effectively unbounded. Whereas capital and coastal cities have been inundated. They are of only short supply. This has resulted in the short term (5 year) spike of late. If you look at the second graph on http://www.vw-organics.com/real_house_prices.htm again, I suggest there is NO trend (gradient) up until about 1990. That is, if the graph only included ’26 to ’89 data one could only draw a straight horizontal line.

    So now housing is 10 times the average salary (from the graph), quite possibly this is the new base, having appreciated faster than inflation this century (all in the last 15 years). So then my theory would be, if this is the base, that in 50 years, houses will be 10 times the average salary. But not 16.5 as would be the case for 1% more appreication than wage growth and 26.9 for 2%. But again, keep in mind, that if you take away the last 15 (even 5) years the long term average would be less than 6 times! Maybe 10 is the new base… maybe 6 will return?

    Looking forward to your Comsec graphs. [exhappy]

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    February 7, 2003 - 1:42 pm

    Does logging in at 3:42am from work qualify as an addiction? [:I] But I get to go home soon. [:D]

    Profile photo of supermansuperman
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    January 24, 2003 - 6:54 am

    Hilary,
    if you happen upon another one of those, email me [;)]. Seriously!

    Profile photo of supermansuperman
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    January 24, 2003 - 2:28 am

    Hi Dr Bell,
    I actually have a similar question. Since I live O.S. what is the general opinion of using services that find properties for you? Are these the same ‘buyers agents’? And then leading on to the question above, “are they worth their money in bargaining for the property”? Can anyone maybe offer some references so we can look at what they charge.

    N.B Obviously there a plenty of risks here, but lets assume we’re talking about quality services.
    N.B.B. Thanks for previous replies to my questions fellas :)

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    January 20, 2003 - 1:51 am

    Thanks for the input Tim. My wife and I are still considering partnerships, but they do add further complications. I think we’d prefer other options. But thanks again.

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    January 19, 2003 - 7:04 pm

    Thanks for the reply, but I really don’t want to invest in the U.S. My wife and I will only be here for a few more years and don’t want the complexity of managing U.S. investments from Australia long-term. Also, our buying power is far less over here, this in turn cuts our ability to manage risk across multiple properties. We really want to know if finding and investing in +vely geared property from another country is possible and any tips on doing so.

    Thanks

    Profile photo of supermansuperman
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    January 19, 2003 - 2:12 am

    Unfortunately my visa all but rules this out and there is a plethora of other reasons. It’s Australian property or no property.[:(]

    Edited by – [email protected] on 19/01/2003 11:13:18 AM

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