I’ve been doing some research into this statistic when writing my book and thought I’d share it here:
Col1: Average 1/4ly growth over 20 years
Col2: Average 1/4ly growth extrapolated yearly
Col3: Years taken for property prices to double (approx)
Adelaide, 1.82%, 7.28%, 9.89 years Brisbane, 2.21%, 8.83%, 8.15 years Canberra, 2.07%, 8.29%, 8.10 years Darwin, 1.49%, 5.94%, 12.12 years Hobart, 1.11%, 4.43%, 16.25 years Melbourne, 2.5%, 10.01%, 7.19 years Perth, 1.78%, 7.11%, 10.13 years Sydney, 2.14%, 8.57%, 8.40 years
Now, allowing for inflation:
Col1: Average 1/4ly growth over 20 years
Col2: Average 1/4ly growth extrapolated yearly
Col3: Average Inflation Over Recorded Period
Col4: Years taken for property prices to double (approx) in after inflation value.
Adelaide, 7.28%, 4.90%, 2.38%, 30.25 Years Brisbane, 8.83%, 4.90%, 3.93%, 18.32 Years Canberra, 8.29%, 4.90%, 3.39%, 21.24 Years Darwin, 5.94%*, 3.8%*, 2.14%, 33.64 Years Hobart, 4.43%*, 2.4%*, 2.03%, 35.47 Years Melbourne, 10.01%, 4.90%, 5.20%, 13.85 Years Perth, 7.11%, 4.90%, 2.21%, 35.58 Years Sydney, 8.57%, 4.90%, 3.67%, 19.62 Years
OK – anyone want to hazard a guess as to what all this means?
Bye,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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Contrary to public opinion, I am not totally anti-negative gearing.
However, I think that’s important to see a strategy for what it is, and re: -ve gearing, it’s about capital growth.
If your goal is financial independence then I think a better model is to build cashflow assets first and then reinvest in capital growth assets out of replenishing income returns.
This way it doesn’t matter if your assets increase or decrease in value as you always have the regular income stream.
This being said, you need to weigh up the cost of selling your home vs. redrawing the equity.
However, the question of keeping or selling should boil down to answering this question…
Will keeping my property bring me closer to, or push me further away, from my investing goals?
quote:
…I am living in my own moderate home and hold a portfolio of investment properties yielding me passive income.
So, does turing your property into a -vely geared property help or hinder you here?
Cheers,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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With low population growth, they are unlikely to show much capital growth, and it might be a hard to get a tenant, but the cashflow should be excellent (assuming around $100pw rent).
Remember that I invest for +ve cashflow so I’m not so fussed about the cap. growth prospects.
The issue of the tenant is very valid though. I use a range of incentives to find and keep quality tenants, so I’m confident that I can find tenants in all markets using the philosophy of treating them like the assets they are.
Bye,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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This might be arguing a finer point, but I don’t hink you can actually buy below market value, you can only by at market value, since what you pay is market value.
However, you may be able to buy below assigned value… such as improved land value, independently appraised value, below median house price value etc.
There is a fixation with trying to buy at a huge discount.
I look at the issue slightly differently. As an investor I have a price I can pay where I make money.
Depending on what that price is vs. the sale price determines if I put in an offer. I don’t see much value in low-balling as it results in lose-lose outcomes.
However, I will try to negotiate a reasonable discount on the sales price to improve my return.
HOWEVER, when I find a deal that makes money I don’t argue the finer points over a few hundred. If I make money and so does the seller then no probs… it’s a win-win sale.
Bye,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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Thanks for your post. Interesting problem you have there and it underlines the importance of due diligence in a potential acquisition.
Based on the numbers you have provided, I’d walk away. You have used some words in your post that I would think very carefully about.
That is:
quote:
This is a gamble, but homes on the canals are rising almost weekly.
It sounds to me like your ‘reasonable’ head is telling you that it’s a risk, maybe a big risk – while your greed gland is secreting wildly and tellling you to go for it so you don’t miss out.
Only hindsight will tell us if you would have been better of in or our of this deal.
However, here’s some financial blurb about your chances of making money.
Let’s say you buy for $330,000 on a 80% loan. Closing costs are $11603.50 plus legals and loan fees, so let’s call it an even $13,000.
I accept that you may choose to use equity in other properties to fund your deposit, or alternatively you may borrow >80% and pay mortgage insurance. But I need to start somewhere…
Anyway, you mention that you’ll also have to tip in $700 per month. OK… and let’s say that you CAN find a tenant the second it’s finished (say the beginning of April).
Your loss until the end of the year will be 9 months * $700 = $6,300
OK – now let’s imagine that you sell after nine months. The first question I ask is why would someone buy a used apartment off you when they could probably buy a new apartment assuming they are continuing to be built.
Pushing that issue to one side, let’s assume you CAN sell for $380,000. Deducted from this needs to be agents costs, let’s assume 3% – which comes to $11,400, plus let’s say another $2,000 in solicitors fees, mortgage discharge etc.
Your numbers now look like this:
Total acquisition costs: $343,000
Add Negative cashflow: $6,300
Less sales price: ($380,000)
Add sales costs: $13,400
Profit: $17,300
Now, don’t forget the tax implications of the profit. Because you have held the property for <12 months there is no CGT discount, so up to 50% of it will be lost. Best case scenario is you’ll probably lose say 1/3rd, so your bottom line BEST CASE SCENARIO is you are betting $79,000 to make a possible $5,709.
I can see why you said this was a gamble!
To me there is far too much risk given that your key assumptions are:
1. Property continues to rise in value at current rates
2. You can find a tenant
3. The property is completed on time
4. You have access to capital and can afford the loss each month
5. Your likely gain is small compared with the risk.
Perhaps the investing Universe is telling you something by providing you with a way out of this deal.
Maybe it’s your chance to build a relationship with an agent by doing them a favour and moving on from this deal to pick up a more profitable deal later.
Finally, whatever you do, if you are making a $330,000 investing decision without a proper analysis of the numbers, such as that outlined in Financial Analysis Template in Buyer Beware, then you’re asking for trouble.
Best of luck,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
**********
My thoughts are that if all you did was make money, then you’d have to make money!
The problem with -ve gearing is that it forces you to stay in your job to earn enough money to fund the -ve cashflow and also create income to soak up the tax losses.
Here are four possible options:
1. Pay off your loans to make them +ve cashflow
2. Redraw your equity and invest it in +ve cashflow property to balance out the -ve
3. Sell your property, pay out your loans and use the balance (after tax) to buy +ve cashflow property
4. Do nothing… keep the status quo.
Have a wonderful weekend and thanks for your post.
Bye,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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By “NII” I assume that you mean National Investment Institute?
As I remember this is Henry Kaye’s organisation.
I have never been to one of his seminars or information nights, although I did have a private consultation some years ago with someone called Victoria.
I was ushered into a room that had Robert Kiyosaki books on the shelf and was told that Henry sold property that Robert mentioned in his books.
At the time I walked away as the numbers did not confirm the assetions made about wealth building.
However, in hindsight, because of the boom in property, provided people could absord the -ve cashflow and wanted to keep working, then they would have made substantial amounts of money.
Nevertheless, for me, making money is not enough. I wanted to make best use of my money and didn’t want the obligation of having to work.
I recommend going along and trying to glean good ideas. When the sales pitch starts, weigh up the cost vs. the benefit and see if you want to go further.
Finally, remember that people who sell property lack independence about whether or not it is a good investment. Be certain that before you ever sign a contract to buy an investment property of any sales agent that you receive independent financial advice.
Regards,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
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I’m a bit short of time… but here’s some quick ideas.
quote:
1) Should I sell a property down here to finance the purchase of my PPOR? I am ineligible for a loan because I am currently unemployed (the loan and LOC was approved because of the income of others on the loan). However, i have been travelling overseas for the last 12 months and haven’t worked – so it may be a good time to realise any capital gains this financial year.
Be careful not to confuse a lifestyle decision with an investment decision. If you want to buy a home then great, but don’t view it as an investment.
You are right that now might be a good time to realise capital gains from a tax position, but remember you will also lose profits in terms of having to pay agent’s costs, loan payout fees etc.
Tax is only one of many considerations. Will selling bring you closer to or push you further away from your investing goals?
quote:
2) When i move to the Gold Coast i’d like to start buying old properties, renovating them and reselling them for a living. But because I cannot service a loan on my own (no job), maybe i should rent and use the proceeds of the property sold (about $170k) to start me off?
Again… don’t cofuse investment and lifestyle. Which decision will bring you closer to your goals? For how much longer can you be satisfied with renting and delay gratification of home owning?
quote:
3) Is there anyone out there who would consider going into a partnership with me to do some small deveopments in South East QLD?
Stuart is an excellent point of reference.
Cheers,
Steve McKnight
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Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
**********
I have not spent a lot of time investigating landlord’s insurance, however I have an understanding that may help you.
A landlord’s insurance policy covers tenancy risk – usually both from a income and potential physical damage perspective.
The cost of a policy varies with perceived risk.
Personally, unless I know that I’m dealing with a risky tenant, I will not take out landlord’s insurance. I see it as insurance for a risk I already mitigate by carefully pre-screening my tenants and also constantly managing my investment.
Whether or not insurance is right for you depends on your perceived level of risk and how active you are with your investment.
Cheers,
Steve McKnight
**********
Remember that success comes from doing things differently.
**********