Given that the demand for global sea shipping of commodities must be a good leading indicator for the future, what does this say about the deep dependence on commodities australia has developed in the last few years.

Over the last year demand for shipping has fallen over 70%. Interesting …

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Downs/aug042005.html

Good article dmichie.

Luci wrote
The average person in the UK (and many other countries) does not expect to ‘own’ their own home

No offense but this is absolute rubbish, just where did you get this from? True, there a lot of leasehold land, but also a heck of a lot freehold land. Though a lot of the population has taken up the speculative…[Read more]

Flat prices in real terms still means prices are falling slowly. Whats more telling is the volume of sales, the real indicator of an illiquid market such as property.

2.20 per photo! Are they hiring professional photographers or something.

Thats a disgrace! Considering the embarrasing amateur job most do of property photos (i’m talking EA’s here), thats shocking they even have the hide to ask for anything.

I have always been amazed by why vendors who are attempting to sell and market the most expensive asset…[Read more]

Going to be a lot less immigrants and pounds flowing into australia soon. Where will the next level of buyers come into the market to support the perth and se qld markets?

Have you considered other assest classes that potentially offer better returns over the long term. I.e index tracker funds.

You have said that you wont make much money on a outback property so why are bothering. With an asset to appreciate over time there has to be demand, is there going to be that much population growth in the area you are…[Read more]

There is some economic research that points to 27 out of 28 asset bubbles that occurred all went back to norm.

Now where is that link???

When it gets near the peak of a 2 sigma range, take the profits while you can.

dmlrichie, what are your views on the qld market.

Given its heavily driven by international (british in the main) and interstate migration there is a massive dependency on new money entering the region.

The UK market is stuffed without a doubt, the govt has all but admited there is a bubble about to go bust with there hairbrained FTB part…[Read more]

Demand for SE qld property that relies heavily on international (especially uk) migration will slow markably.

If they cannot sell in the uk nor achieve prices near peak prices then the migration numbers will slow.

Perth/WA appears to be still going ok, but as areas outside capitals and central areas take longer for the slowdown to reach.

Interesting read. So basically it means that no matter what your intuition or growth calculations tell you, 2 or higher sigma events reverse to bring it all back down to average (with a tendency to overshoot). Theres no escaping it.

Just because the last few years have seen incredible growth does not mean the same for the future. I guess that…[Read more]

why watch them pay rent instead

Is that because rent is dead money?

dmichie, did you get sick of using your normal username?

ssab has an amazing writing style comparable to yours.

Sorry to disappoint but no.

There is always a chance of IR movements above 9%, but its a good start to cater for around that level (3% above market).

External factors such as the AUD depreciating rapidly(not if but when), chinese currency fix adjusting/floating, or other event have a habit of occurring every 5 years or so.

Dont just assume continued growth and stable IR’s.

So what the calculations be under these conditions?

Year 1 10% growth (03)
Year 2 10% growth (04)
Year 3 -10% growth (05)
Year 4 -5% growth (06)
Year 5 -2% growth (07)

Taking brisbane as the example, can anyone rule out -10%(or more) growth this year and tapering off for the next few years(but being more in real terms with inflation…[Read more]