@ Freckle, not very different here in Brisbane. Properties around us, especially those on the water overlooking marina births (Manly) use to be hard to get. If one comes on the market, it used to get snapped by the buyer within days. Now, we have number, all well over 1Mil mark sitting on the markets for well over 6 months. More and more coming up for sale, and longer it takes to sell. Strange the way it looks, shurelly people driving new Merc S500 and Porsche 4×4 can afford the repayments for a house that is only 5 times more expencive that car they drive. I would expect those who lived in the house over 5 years to own it outright anyway, considering suburb's high profile buyers.
I am in manufacturing industry, we deal with over 500 companies in Australia. We get notified of buncrapsies now weekly, use to be unheard event.
Times are tough, as economy tightens futher we are going to have disproportiannaly more people going bust and liqudating the assests at firesale.
+1 In simplified form, if you are in debt – inflation is good. That is assuming business, not personal debt. If you are saver (in fiat currency), inflation is reducing your savings and is bad for you.
I have lived thru inflation and hyperinflation in Poland 1990, Russia 1992 and few others. General rule is, as inflation rate increases – more value you loose by holding the fiat over the same period of time. So people/businesses dump currency and buy goods, assets (land, buildings, factories, very large businesses, infrastructure and so on) and start trading barter (in very bad cases, think Greece).
From PI investor with debt point of view, moderate inflation is very welcome. I know as I am and I can count my money well.
The way I look on it the bets way to derive a benefit out of the situation you have described here is that you should get yourself into as much debt as you can safely handle as early as you can and never ever pay it back. From a purist perspective the investment property is merely the method of securing debt, debt that will pay dividends and growth over time.
I view it the same, agree here. To make money, your description is spot on. To secure money already at hand, you need to invest in asset class that is inflation adjusted, some also pay divedents along the way. Can be RE, Gold, Land… Just have to watch the cycles when making move.
I would disagree.
You buy a house for 500K, rent it out and if properly done brake even, not even considering tax. That at 100% finance, with zerro capital outlay.
Now, in 5 years from now, your loan is still 500K, but tenants pay more (min 3% rent increase/year).
So, you have an income, thank you inflation.
Now 20 years down the track, loan is still 500K BUT rent is +3% every year. You take your yearly rent and pay down debt.
Result – you own property, you have rent paid, and you spend NO MONEY in process.
If not for inflation, this financial vehicle will not function
So income rises with inflation but expenses don’t. With that logic all properties should be positively geared because of inflation over the last 50 years. With that logic income should just keep increasing.
The Freckle
You are correct saying that all you do is just wait out few years and it becomes positive, This is what I do anyway.
But income always the same, it’s not increasing. It’s just the loan amount becomes very small (devaluates).
Income just becomes inflation adjusted. It will buy you the same amount of food now or 20 years later.
+1 In simplified form, if you are in debt – inflation is good. That is assuming business, not personal debt. If you are saver (in fiat currency), inflation is reducing your savings and is bad for you.
I have lived thru inflation and hyperinflation in Poland 1990, Russia 1992 and few others. General rule is, as inflation rate increases – more value you loose by holding the fiat over the same period of time. So people/businesses dump currency and buy goods, assets (land, buildings, factories, very large businesses, infrastructure and so on) and start trading barter (in very bad cases, think Greece).
From PI investor with debt point of view, moderate inflation is very welcome. I know as I am and I can count my money well.
The debt is only one part of the equation. Inflation affects the interest rate (cost of debt), the asset (may rise in value), and cost of holding the assets (overhead expenses).
Too much inflation can see depreciation in an asset while costs rise. It’s why central banks try to stabilise inflation at around 2-3%. It makes financial markets far more stable with lower risk.
You can’t look at inflation and any of its affects in isolation; ie its reducing effect on debt alone. In general inflation has wider implications in how it affects markets.
Inflation is part of the financial forces that transfer wealth from you to the banks/govt.
In high inflationary times I agree FIAT is not the place to be. Hard assets can buffer you from the worst affects of inflation but it’s not a guarantee. During the 90’s we saw high inflation high interest rates and then a deflationary crash in RE. My property (NZ) went from $350k to $230k in the space of 8 months.
The Freckle
I agree that during far extremes of inflation/deflation unexpected things happen. But, if the government manage to control it with in the reason, all indicators perform in line with inflation over the mid to long term. Like you mentioned, one extra zerro added to the prices every so many years, to ALL prices. But your bank loan is not indexed, it is still the same original amount.
Asset depreciation: well, it happens with or without inflation. All assets fluctuate in value again each other and to the FIAT as well.
As for wealth transfer, it’s an old story. Do not hold fiat, and you are not a subject to been inflated and taxed out You may still experience value fluctuation of the asset you hold, say gold / land / PI. But it will never be reduced to zerro like dollars can be.
All asset classes are inflation indexed by nature over the mid-long term, but FIAT is not. It’s unique in this respect.
And that’s the problem with the definition of profit over time. You may have more dollars in your wallet but if the dollars you had 20 years ago bought a dozen eggs and the dollars from the sale still only buy a dozen eggs 20 years later then are you actually any wealthier? Inflation tends to trick people into thinking they’re getting richer.
You need to constantly measure your wealth in terms of buying power not how many zeros are on the end of your bank book.
The Freckle
I would disagree.
You buy a house for 500K, rent it out and if properly done brake even, not even considering tax. That at 100% finance, with zerro capital outlay.
Now, in 5 years from now, your loan is still 500K, but tenants pay more (min 3% rent increase/year).
So, you have an income, thank you inflation.
Now 20 years down the track, loan is still 500K BUT rent is +3% every year. You take your yearly rent and pay down debt.
Result – you own property, you have rent paid, and you spend NO MONEY in process.
If not for inflation, this financial vehicle will not function
+1 In simplified form, if you are in debt – inflation is good. That is assuming business, not personal debt. If you are saver (in fiat currency), inflation is reducing your savings and is bad for you.
I have lived thru inflation and hyperinflation in Poland 1990, Russia 1992 and few others. General rule is, as inflation rate increases – more value you loose by holding the fiat over the same period of time. So people/businesses dump currency and buy goods, assets (land, buildings, factories, very large businesses, infrastructure and so on) and start trading barter (in very bad cases, think Greece).
From PI investor with debt point of view, moderate inflation is very welcome. I know as I am and I can count my money well.
@ bardon It seems to me that those at financial control mechanism of the country prefer inflation to stagnation and god forbid deflation. One can say that as every person act to his personal benefit regardless to his position in society, people in control of our economy are manufacturing 'mild' inflation as a means to support there's own financial affairs. Based on above, I inclined to think that they will put every effort to maintain inflation. The question remain if the will achieve desired 3-5% range without going far either side of the target. And what are they trying to achieve by returning the budget to surplus, as it somewhat suppresses the inflation and contradicts to the general course.
So I agree here with bardon, inflation is a lickly to haunt us in near future. Those with savings sitting in bank accounts will suffer and will be taxed as well.
Freckle, Agree with you on sentiment. This is how I see current state of affairs in RE as well as many other industries with few exclusions. What fascinates me is now fairly large number of people on this boards still find profitable deals in RE with reasonable risk levels. I seem to be observing major decoupling from opinions here and my research on the street. I do my daily property searches, weekly seminars with REIA, Developers, Property Groups and so on, weekends attending open houses and so on. There are deals there, I my self got 2 x IP in the last 6 months, BUT those are more of the creative exclusions rather than a norm. A norm on the street for mam/dad investor is to LOOSE money in RE now.
On our last company BBQ, I have spoken with workers (over 50ppl). Two where selling, few where regretting that they purchased in the last 3-5 years. None are buying.
So it would appear that only some specialty investors are out there doing some purchasing.
Interesting stats, as long as you know how data is calculated. Say, if we have more high end properties sales recently, it will indicate that house prices grow for this period:)
Very different story on the streets, people loosing jobs, even QUT in Brisbane just shed a lot of people who are long therm (over 10 years there). We dismissed over 15% from our manufacturing facility in last 12 months.
Who is buying in 2012 ? For investors yield is too low, bank give higher return in interest rates.
Nice summary going back a long time! Would be good to see 'affordability' plotted against wage/price ration…. The way the chart stands, it represents one-sided view, expensive house may still be affordable IF say interest rates are low. So we need to also see how much % of the wage take up repayments, not just wage/price ratio….
source: http://www.allenrealestate.com.au Not what you call a massive collapse by any means but, adjusted for inflation 15% loss from the top ever reached
@ fWord
Agreed, still it can send ‘grey masses’ in to the panic. While you an me can take 6% loss associated with calculated risk as OK, majority of people hammered by media will not.
It’ is indeed a small loss, even if you add 3% CPI to it. It is the effect it can have and the trend. Say, yearly 9% (real term) loss for 5 year can be entertaining
I am on the market for rentals, and getting 100K discount of 700K property is not that difficult any more…
Thanks xdrew, nice feedback.
I was wondering what he is up to, as his ‘angle of approach’ seem very focused on getting fixed mindset of the reader. That is usually indication of personal interest in the matter discussed.
Wirsz advises Fortune 500 CEOs and fund managers on investing in real estate:
Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate, global property analyst Jordan Wirsz says
AUSTRALIA’S love affair with property is about to be tested amid predictions prices will plummet by as much as 60 per cent, with capital cities hardest hit.
That’s the Armageddon-esque warning from leading US real estate analyst Jordan Wirsz, who believes Australia is heading towards a property bloodbath as the global economic downturn spreads to China and eventually here.
Mr Wirsz advises Fortune 500 CEOs and fund managers on investing in real estate.
He predicts that a flood of properties will begin to hit the market in Australia from next year as investors scramble to bail out, leading to a property crash of magnitude the country has not seen before.
“Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia,” Mr Wirsz said.
“The market has slowed substantially but residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years.”
The outlook is even grimmer for land investments, which Mr Wirsz said are more speculative and will plummet by as much as 80 and 90 per cent in value.
Commercial property will also take a hit in line with the residential sector shedding at least 50 per cent of its value.
Mr Wirsz pointed to artificially low interest rates, high loan-to-value lending practices, overinflated property prices, unrealistic vendor expectations and Australia’s large number of second mortgages.
“I’m bearish about world real estate but I couldn’t be more bearish about the Australian market,” he said.
“There have been corrections but they don’t hold up to the scale of what is coming.
“The paradigm is that nobody ever believes house prices can go down but those who have bought at the top of the market are going to be sorely disappointed.”
He predicts property prices will be on a slippery slope next year when interest rates begin to rise, commodity prices peak and China’s demand for Australian exports slows.
A sluggish recovery will begin in 2016.
“If you are homeowner, be cautious, get rid of your debt, consider selling if you don’t plan to be in your house for more than seven years and downsize or become a tenant,” he said.
The only winners will be real estate agents cashing in on bank-owned properties, he added.
Adding to the glum outlook, properties in capital city would be hardest hit “because Australian cities are some of the most overvalued in the world and more speculative than regional areas”, Mr Wirsz said.
Mr Wirsz joins other international naysayers including visiting US economist Harry Dent who recently said Australian house prices were 50 per cent overvalued.
With few exceptions, local experts disagree with their predictions.
HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham said for property values to crash there would need to be sharp rises in interest rates, unemployment and housing stocks.
That combination is not on the cards, he said.
“I am not of the view that there is a looming housing bubble in Australia as it seems many doom and gloomsters are,” Mr Bloxham said.
“Surely if the market was going to collapse it would have happened in 2009 after the Lehman’s collapse when we had the biggest aversion to housing assets that you’ve seen.
“All we saw was a 3 per cent fall in house prices and then they rose.”
Mr Bloxham believes an undersupply of housing, more rate cuts, low dwelling price to income ratios and strong overseas demand for Australian assets will act as buffer from global instability
“Some commentators aren’t doing the calculations correctly, they typically look at detached houses in the capital cities, they don’t incorporate apartments and regional areas, and they overstate the level of house prices to income.”
Sydney real estate agent Charlie Bailey of Ray White Inner West believes there will not be a burst because there is no bubble.
“People have been predicting house prices to fall every year and every year we have an increase in prices,” Mr Bailey said.
“In Sydney, we have 20,000 people a week looking for accommodation and not enough supply.
“I can’t see the city’s housing infrastructure changing any time soon so a prediction of a 60 per cent fall in property prices is a big call.”
What trend we will see in near future in Melbourne? Is property market looking very positive for mid range property priced between 400,00.00 – 600,000.00? If you are thinking to invest, which type of property you consider – unit, apartment, villa, house with land, townhouse ?? Any suggestions ??
You should be really asking your self a different question: am I a good investor? In few questions above you covered such a broad field that one can write the whole book on this.
The fact: No one knows what will happen The difference between opinions on the market performance based on education as background and exclusive knowledge of some facts.
+1 on that one. Especially important now when yields starting to rise across Brisbane and it's time to start hunting. Was it you I have spoken on the phone a month or two back? We discussed finding CF+ properties? I got another one since then, two more on the list but could not get the price down low enough
Very nice data put together, thanks for sharing. Ever done CPI adjusted numbers? Would be interesting to see 'real' growth. It's hard to estimate the chart going back that far…