I found that RE return above 9% makes it feasible to purchase and hold. At this level, property just above brake even (mid therm, 12 months to 5 years).
Once I find one, all other aspects considered, including mid/very long therm.
As per original question, $20 PW or $100PR is irrelevant. It's depending on size of the investment and the strategy.
My strategy is manly Cash Flow. Other aspects are secondary and is a bonus.
I just came back from Qatar after spending another week there. Unless it tickle your fancy, it's is not a pleasant place to leave. In the way, that lifestatyle is very different. I am not talking about 38C winter temperatures but outside world instead. All life is really indoors. Go out, and its sand and concrete.
On the positive note, crime is basically zero. You can leave you car running with the key in ignition and valuables inside and go shopping for 2 hours. When you came back, the AC keep the car cool and no one would touch it. You can leave your mobile/wallet on the table in the coffee shop and go to the bathroom. When back, it's where you left it. Extraordinary experience!
Real Estate there is interesting topic. A lot of it build, all to high specification by the regional standard. Prices are high and vacancy low. I do not know a way to own RE in Qatar, law say only Qatary can own the land. Maybe you can purchase apartment without the right of land? You will need to investigate.
They are preparing for FIFA 2020 I think. They will do what ever it takes to get the contract. The proposed expenditure on infrastructure and related services is extraordinary. They are budgeting to build a bridge for example, 50 km long. They are already opened up areas to practice alternative religions, sell pork and alcohol in selected places.
Generally speaking Australia's RE is still doing it OK.
Dubai, RE prices doubled over last two years (again), after drop out in 2008.
Qatar, RE very strong, but you cannot buy it. Only rent.
China, RE vend slightly down, then up and now flat. That is over last 2 years.
Malaysia, RE stagnated at very high price (compared to local wage).
If the cash is to come, it will be some time later on. May be some 3-4 years later. At the moment it all looks like it's going to fluctuate but with no dramatic changes.
Based on your reply, your focus in Capital Gain. Let's compare it to Cash Flow:
CG for:
Can be very large over very short time
50% TAX discount
Holding cost insignificant over the return
Short to mid term stategy
CG against:
Can generate very large losses (volatile)
Generate no weekly income, must sit an wait – so cannot give up your dayli work
You are gamble on future gains
Rent AKA Cash Flow for:
Weekly income
Very small variation from week to week
Always inflation adjusted
You can use it to replace you day job (weekly income)
life long income, while retaining asset value
Still hold option to 'flip' for capital gain if you wish
Rent against:
Can have vacancy (about 5% from my experience in Brisbane)
Small Income from one property
Normal TAX rate
Commitment over the long term
My favorite is Cashflow. CG is hard in steady or falling market. You need to hold significant cash reserves in case it goes bad and need to be professional to slice a good deal. It's easier if it's booming…
You still need a daily job to pay bills between deals. That may change of course if you grow fully sustainable. But I still to meet this person
Guys for outside observer, I think you are talking apples to oranges
Freckle is focused on short term probability while bardon on mid to long term.
I actually agree with both While we may have fallout/recession/depression/what have you induced by primary or secondary factors, mid/long term Australia is still going to be digging out and selling for a long time. We not much different to Saudi Arabia in that respect. They did go thru few 'dips' but recovered nicely every single time regardless prices on OIL fluctuating a great deal.
bardon have a point, disregarding future projections and areas of tention that may/may not let go: Australia is in deed in the nice position at the moment as the whole country.
bardon, while I agree with you on the trends and potential I am extremely cautious on outcome. Having best race car in the race do not guarantee a WIN, only improves your chances.
I lived thru 1990 in Poland, 1992 Russia and few other, and while those countries had enormous natural resources and stashed away gold and other assets, they failed miserably.
I hope our government will deliver better outcome, but so far I am not entirely convinced. They seem to do same all over again – take what you can, while you can and hide (move to US?).
All above keeps me alert to some degree. I do invest, I do take risks, but I only gamble what I can afford to loose.
To have an idea of the 'trend' you need something like 12 months with a sample size of a quoter. If someone can extract meaningful data from smaller sample in RE, I take my hat off.
Thinking of risk, it can be greatly reduced by experience and knowledge.
So, with enough experience and knowledge, you will have your low risk environment for high yielding proposition.
This can be one of the variations of the answer to your question. Enjoy the journey!
As for China, not that I think it is going to stop growing, a smaller growth % on a growing economy can be growth % the same as a higher growth % on the previously smaller economy.
Have to read it few times to extract the meaning
All I have to say, is when you travel to China every year and compare changes you see, you will notice that 2012 in China look better on reports than in real world.
Noob, I would agree with you. Businesses, especially manufacturing sector is muscle and a bone of any sustainable economy. But, strangely enough, government drive more and more businesses to outsource. To many regulations, to expensive to comply. So much easier to arrange for “call centre” in India than to hire small army of employees in Australia.
I have compared business vs gold/silver vs property investment.
I found:
Business is best, very high return on low investment (15-50% yearly). But consume your time. Time input directly proportional return.
Gold/Silver and Property consume little time. But move in cycles, so ideally you would jump from one to next every cycle to gain value (speculation). If you fail to do so, all you get is just inflation adjusted return (over the long therm 30-50 years). One can consider it as your personal INFLATION ADJUSTED savings account outside banking system.
This is my experience, other people would have different view. Probably depends on how you do it and what is the aim of the game.
Majority of the views expressed over here are pretty pessimistic and i can see the reasons why which make sense, but sometimes the battle is won by the person who sees things differently. I am not saying i am that person. But what makes me think the property valuations can rise and the sector will pick up is a couple of simple factors like Increase in population due to increase in migrant intake will always result in shortage of houses and accommodation Construction Industry not getting proper financial support due to strict lending by banks to the construction industry ( resulting in less projects finishing on due dates and taking longer , with also projects not getting off the ground) Pricing for houses fairly low comparatively with a year ago with rents going up, bringing that price to sweet point for investors and a sour point for First home owners who would rather buy now ..giving the market some push The unemployment rate is really down think ..think…..
I am investor with number of properties. I also invest in other hard assets
How I see it:
Population growth is a good thing on long term scale. Short term it may have no impact what so ever. Think USA market today. Imigrants coming, pricing still crashing down, especially low end.
Construction Industry is slowing down, less houses build. But awful lot of apartments are been build NOW in Brisbane. Prices getting hammered including rents. How I know? My tenants moving out from house and going to live in freshly build apartment they purchased fairly cheap (fire sale). The market may become tight, but after it will balance itself out first. Will take years to do that.
Rents going up? I have 10 tenants, rent was up by 2.5% this year. I estimated 1.5% rise next year. I rent houses in 5 to15km away from City. Vacancy % is also up comparing to last 10 years.
My experience do not flow well with your comment. Anyone else feel the same or it's just me?
I am in Brisbane. Good start is to find property agent that is like minded to what you are trying to do. They normally buyers agents, charging you fee for finding what you want. Some actually also can rent the places out for you as they run small businesses not to different to your usual Real Estate agent. The catch of the whole set up, is to know WHAT QUESTION (what result to demand) to ask. They are tools to achieve the goal, you need to direct them, same as finance brokers. Figure out what is your strategy and go for it. Internet is last option, go out there, attend seminars, meetings, mix with ppl. I know no one in Melb to suggest.