Jordan Wirsz is not that neutral in his review. Been biased towards driving investment from AU to USA market where he is positioned. You can see direct interest in scaring AU investors.

But, beside this I agree with gmh454. Was watching market since 2001, since my involvement. From 2008/2009, inflation corrected we are moving backwards. Not much, but good 2-3% year. I now make offer 10% below listed and it's a accepted norm. Use to have to offer asking or above to get vendor to sign the contract, back in 2006.

Like in above post, crunch the numbers and see what comes out. My approach would be to see if I can improve cashflow. Another one is to dump some cash in to the loan (assuming P+I loan) to place you on the brake-even point. From there onwards it will just keep on improving.

I do not see Redcliff booming anytime soon. Anyone with money is looking at Brisbane, close to CBD. That with remote location drives investor away from already lean market.

Looking at the maps, Brisbane have some decades of growth until it will start to pressure Redcliff prices upwards by crossing the boundary. By itself, it will not go up. Not enough people and industry.  

Capital city home values fall over consecutive years, down -3.8%in 2011 and -0.4% in 2012.

RP Data just released their end-of-year housing data for 2012 and it confirms what many  already knew. 125bps over the last 12 months still hasn’t been enough to get traction under the market and as we roll into the “fiscally responsible” new year 2013 isn’t looking all that great either. The latest uptick in commodity prices should provide some support for national incomes, so that is a positive as long as it can last, but given what we’ve seen in the trend in credit since the GFC that may just result in further down payment of debt rather than increasing asset prices.

With governments across the country all hoping that housing construction will provide some economic support it’s going to be an interesting year for the housing market, but with immigration again on the rise and the RBA predicted to cut deeper they may still be some upside in 2013. For the bulls Sydney and Darwin are still looking good, for the bears there is everywhere else.

RPData

Oh boy, a holy grain question.

From this point in time RE prices can:

– rise

– stagnate

– drop

Also, they can rise/drop by different amount as well as for different length of time.

Imagine number of possible outcomes? Now, multiply them by number of possible government interventions and major moves in world economy.

So, in real world any prediction are worth no more than amount you paid for them

My expectation, next 12 months – slow meltdown. Next 5 years, stagnation overall. 

But my actions are more based on what I see now, now what I expect. I see the gain – I go for it. 

Only my strategy is based on my expectations, meaning I buy for cashflow not CG (mid therm).

Well, I am actually on opposite side of the fence. We hire people, run manufacturing facility.

Since 2008 we lost turnover, dismissed 25% of our staff. Our competition went of business (bust), our clients take 2 years to pay 60 day account.

None the less, guys that work for us on $25-30/h carry new Iphones + Ipads + drive $30K+ cars. They also go on holidays and renovate houses. I think there is some degree of disconnect with reality and lack of observation.

The fact is, we are likely to see more pain. 4 days working weeks very well can be an option mid 2013. When I mention this to our staff they look suprised, walk away and continue the trend.

If economy nosedive anymore in next 24 months, I can see many people not been able to meet the financial obligations AKA look out for repo sales.

The open house inspections I done over the last few weeks starting to look like "Freckle" scenario.

Owners purchased in 2007 for $845K, trying to get $745K. Two couples on the open house.

Owners listed property for $400K, few months later still there listed $365K. We are the only visitors at open house.

Had 2 open houses at same time, 11am. Both agents been calling me at 11am insisting to see the property. I choose one, and it was lonely walk thru a nice house.

The trend is fascinating, as I use to get very unhappy agents on the phone by calling them Saturday/Sunday. How, they offer to come out and show me the property anytime?! Love the newly found customer service.

So, while RP Data show us 2% drop in values across Brisbane, vendors commonly discount well over 10%.  

Market is bumpy, some properties go under contract in in matter of one-two weeks. Other hang around for ages and discount a lot. High end properties are now sold with large discounts. $1M plus houses in Ascot coming up for sale weekly, some are 'special' in the way that been done up very nicely and have not seen market for a long time.

My take of the future if current trend continue: Slow meltdown of RE over the 5-7 years. 

Oh boy, this is an OLD thread.

Let's throw some fun article in. Source

Slump looms as a third of new home sales abandoned

Melbourne's outer-suburban property market is facing a serious slump as distressed buyers and builders cancel one in every three new home purchases.

The collapse in sales could have serious repercussions for the state economy and the building industry, which employs more than 250,000 Victorians.

"We've never seen this before, so it's a very strong signal that the fundamentals are wrong," said Colin Keane, director of analyst group Research4, who compiled the new research.

<moderator: have deleted pasted text as it was too long.  Please see article as linked above.  Thanks>

There are few ways out actually. Most known is German Style (1946) aka hyperinflation. You can have controlled inflation and just let the time do the job.

Just thinking here, state is no different to private individual. How many ppl do you know that have debt 400% yearly wages?

I know many who is at 800% of non business related debt! No one is going bust, only few.

From the start of GFC, almost 5 years have passed. 5 at say 3% inflation, we devaluate the debt already by some 12%?

Not trying to say I am right, just wanting to hear some opinions outside the box.

bardon wrote:

simple wrote:

A lot of dancing there, but we are not going anywhere!

So are you saying that there wont be a property bust and that there isn't worse to come?

There is definitely no crash happening here. Some pain out there, but no bust.

It's 8 years in to this thread, prices still where we was in 2006. Went up/down and sideways now.  Starting to look like there will be no 'bust', just a prolonged stagnation instead?!

Disregarding my view on what it will do, I am active investor, with last IP purchased in 2011. Current situation created some nice opportunities out there.

It's nice when you can do that. Some time you can get a steal. Not many are around.