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seank
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May 26, 2008 - 9:24 am
blogs wrote:
seank wrote:
Scamp have been spending too much time in those Holland cafes? Did you read the article properly?
This relates to Public trustee houses, which can't be rented out and have nothing to do with the rental shortage.
Ahhh Seank sure you read the article yourself? It isnt JUST about public trustee houses, it is also about properties that are vacant for other reasons. That asside you would also realise the article is saying "Every year about 1200 vacant houses fall into the hands of the Public Trustee" but due to red tape they cant get onto the market instantly. Also that "The number of unoccupied residential dwellings in Sydney counted by census workers in 2006 was 122,211, with the highest number found in the inner city" -not all of these were due to Trustee issues as you incorrectly pointed out. Read the article again in full maybe…
I think you have missed the original arguement point which was -there is a shortage of RENTAL and SELLABLE properties which is driving up demand., and rentals. Scamp replied with the above article, which indicates YES there are vacant houses for various reasons, however they can't be rented or sold, so in reality these numbers mean nothing in relation to supply……
If you found the proper data on rental vancanies I'm sure it would paint a different picture….
seank
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May 26, 2008 - 8:43 am
Scamp wrote:
APerry wrote:
"Australia doesn't have a shortage : it's got a massive oversupply."
Absolute and utter garbage!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydneys-vacant-buildings/2008/05/25/1211653847174.html?page=3
there you go. 120.000 empty houses in sydney alone. That's only the known ones.
Scamp have been spending too much time in those Holland cafes? Did you read the article properly?
This relates to Public trustee houses, which can't be rented out and have nothing to do with the rental shortage.
seank
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May 23, 2008 - 9:01 am
hb wrote:
wow , i'm gonna be rich
but aren't things also go UP?
using the same logic
My $50k salary today with be $2.62 million dollars a year in 2047
A commodore will be worth $1.8mill
Petrol with be $72/litre
and a loaf of bread $135
something to look forward to hey
cheers…….with my bottle of red $20 today.,……$905 in 2047
Will a VE commdore depreciate in value ?- you bet, will a genuine Walkinsaw appreciate in value? you bet
Will a bottle of goon stay at $10 a cask? you bet, will a 10 year old claret appreciate? you bet
Will petrol keep going up? if supply is tight of course.
The same fundamentals apply to property, well located property (as in close to cdb's, public transport, schools, ocean front ect) will always appreciate in value, as supply is tight and everyone wants to buy there.
You only have to look at hedges avenue on the Gold Coast as an example of where buyers do not care of the cost to obtain an exclusive and so tightly held piece of land, which in turn drives prices up.
The first to suffer from a price downturn is on the outer fringes where there is plentyful stock (oversupply)
Whilst most buyers are buying with caution at the moment, well located property with unique features or tight supply will always perfom well, and be the last to suffer from a downturn.
seank
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May 18, 2008 - 1:01 am
Scamp wrote:
oh my god this is the dumbest thing I have ever seen anyone done. You are food for the Ponzi scheme, it's what the whole scheme is relying on. What do you want to do man, buy a median price for 400.000 at 10% interest ?… that's 40.000 per year just paying off rent. Let me calculate it for you , in the WORST of cases ( which you SHOULD take as the basis of any healthy investment :
– You will become unemployed within 2 years
– Interest rates will go up to 12%
– Your house will devaluate 50% in 2 years.
– Your house gets squatted by drug addicts and they burn the house down.
So , from this perspective, do you think you would buy the house ? No
Now, from the absolute BEST perspective you possibly can get ( unrealisticly positive )
– you earn 50.000 p.a GROSS of which you will keep 35.000
– you spend 2000 per month on food and taxes etc ( this is very low )
– your house will devaluate only 30% over 2 years time.
Let's say you buy a shithole instead of a median house, for 200.000. This is the shithole of shitholes, prolly you will have to evict the drug addicts from the place and replaster the whole place, and if you're lucky you won't have termites. That's 20.000 for an absolute dump per year just paying off rent.
You earn : 35.000
You pay : (2000×12)+20.000 = 44.000
In other words, even in the BEST of BEST cases, buying the cheapest place available, you still cannot afford the place. In the worst case, you will be bankrupt in 1 year even.
Just look at it realistically, don't just buy what these investors tell you , they will tell you you get tax benefits and rent incomes : that's bollocks : Take my advice, rent , don't buy yet.
Scamp you lost total credibility with that post. I suggest you do some research on Australia taxes before you post information.
Admin are you going to take action with these posts?
Its no wonder everyone seems to be leaving this forum,and going to other forums with decent content.
seank
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May 15, 2008 - 2:28 am
I'm all for, and encourage different points of view, however I think you should post once only then move on, another post has been generated of similar content already. If you want to repeat posts on "doom and gloom" there is a forum for this and its called the global house price crash forum. No-one will win this argument, if we do have a crash you get your pat on the back, if we don't we make more money. As an investor I'm also cautious and waiting , however I think some of the above comments are complete rubbish, and just as damaging as someone saying "prices will keep rising".
My final comment on this post.
seank
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May 14, 2008 - 12:51 am
Scamp wrote:
Don't worry , I know a lot more than you think about the australian housing market. People are people.
Yes , I know your goverment is corrupt and your housing minister has 14 investment properties
Yes, I know you think (wish) there's a housing shortage, but in reality there are 800.000 empty dwellings. It just shows you haven't done research.
Your market is just like any other market, it goes up , and it goes down. It went up twice as hard as it should possibly have gone without government help ( tax incentives etc ), it will fall twice as hard as anywhere else.
Your market relies on money from outside coming in and buying the expensive houses. Poms are having a house crash as we speak, they won't buy the houses… who will ?
Prices won't crash as long as people don't sell. Ofcourse, we could all together agree with eachother that we don't sell ANY houses for less than 1.000.000, however that doesn't work when people start 'cheating' their way down because of panic.
The housing market in Australia is not a supply/demand market at all, it's a fear/greed market.
In a boom ( upward cycle ) it goes like this :
The fear of not being able to own a house, the fear of missing the boat and being outpriced for the rest of your life, the greed from sellers who want more more more, the greedy who were too eager to make profit too fast and too irresponsible.
In a crash ( downward cycle ) it goes like this :
Sellers fear not being able to pay off the interest rates, initially they fear not being able to sell, this turns into fear of losing money, this turns into fear of going bankrupt. The buyers on the other hand are greedy : They want MORE discount, lower prices, better locations and better quality houses.
Which cycle do you think Australia is in now ?
Confims you know absolutely nothing about the Australian market. I don't know your motives but I rekon people like you should be banned from these forums, for giving out such false advice.
seank
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May 12, 2008 - 9:47 pm
Scamp wrote:
My harsh comment was made to grasp people's attention. It did, and I'm sorry if I offended some people.
I'm sure there's smart people around here, I'm a PI myself, I'm about to sell my 'boomed out' properties in Holland where a boom at this moment is unlikely ( prices haven't boomed enough to cause people to be in massive debt ).
However , unemployment, high fuelprice and the prospect of a new war between USA and ( fill in random oil country like Brazil / Venezuela / Iran etc ) will not yeild more revenue on the short term.
I'm on my way to Australia myself, hence my interest in Australian property, and was shocked that people see 8 times wages as 'normal' to lend a home. It's not : It's exhuberantly much, bordering on silly.
I'm sure people on this forum are a lot smarter than that, but having viewed 20 overenthousiastic posts I didn't want to reply to all of them that making profit on anything ( let alone a crashing housing market ) is a risky and dangerous area.
Don't stick all your money ( and your future ) in something that you haven't researched properly and is bound to crash soon : That's all I wanted to say. But saying it like that , it would have gone unnoticed. It's not allowed to go unnoticed anymore.
As a tip : property is worth 4 times the person's average wages per year.
So if you earn 50.000 dollars, your house should be worth 200.000.
Seeing that average property prices are 400.000, and average wages are 50.000… It's more than evident that the market is 50% overvalued. Take this from a seasoned property investor.
Another free tip : the real value of your house is what you can sell it for : Not what banks tell you.
If a fool buys it for 500.000, then it does NOT mean it's 'worth' 500.000. It just means it's worth whatever the NEXT fool will give you for the house ( that might be 1.000.000 or 200.000 ). Seeing that fools are running low on money, you can bet that property prices aren't going up , but down.
Like I said, get the average wages of people living in an area, multiply by 4, and you have the average houseprices. If the sums don't add up, at least you will know which way the prices will go.
You don't live in Australia yet you make big comments like this? You also seem to be giving alot of advice, do you have any formal qualifications? Our real estate market is very different here from Holland or Usa, maybe you should do your own research? on our market before you make sure strong comments.
seank
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April 14, 2008 - 3:27 am
as posted on somersoft.
some simple common sense research as to why prices will keep on going up, done by economists.
http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Housing%20Snapshot%20April%202008.pdf
seank
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March 31, 2008 - 10:48 pm
blogs wrote:
seank wrote:
I agree Mark,
Blogs no offence but you seem to be constantly posting media quotes and negative sentitment.
No offense taken mate All Im trying to do is make sure people are aware off all the information-both sides. After all, we are all here to make a quid and if we can save an extra 5% by taking note of the broader market, economics and changing market sentiment it empowers our position as investors. Why stick your head in the sand?
See 4 corners last night? A perfect example of the mentality of so many people who have bought in the current realestate market. The owner, being forced to sell due to being too far in debt was absolutely AMAZED that she couldnt get what she paid for her $650k house, sniping 'what do they want it for? 50 cents?" She couldnt fathom that property prices dont just always go up and I think it got passed in for around $600k?
Yes blogs I did see it. However I think all states are perfoming different, I live in Brisbane and I can tell you it is quite different here, sure things have slowed and prices may/may not drop, however the overall feeling is positive. Also if "worst case" as you predict does happen I'm sure many smart investors here are prepared. Me personally, I have invested in the s/market, also waiting on the sideline for property, and putting all my money into reducing LVR.
Sure it is ok to post as you do, how about some solutions/strategies also for the novice investors?
seank
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March 31, 2008 - 8:55 am
L.A Aussie wrote:
I think everyone is agreeance that the market is about to/already slowing down.
But it's not everywhere – there are some areas that will boom or simply keep on growing regardless of the rest of the market and what the media say. Go find those areas.
We don't need more discussion about the gloom and doom. If you want to discuss it more, go over to Global House Price Crash and you'll have a great time.
What we need more of is what to do when the market moves in the direction it is seemingly headed.
Me; I'm cashing up as always, keeping the LVR low, and making sure the servicability is good so I can take advantage of the buyers' market that is developing.
There will be many opportunities in the near future.
Heavily neg geared investors, and owner occupiers – both with very high LVR's and low servicability will be the providers of these opportunities.
I agree Mark,
Blogs no offence but you seem to be constantly posting media quotes and negative sentitment.
seank
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March 31, 2008 - 8:51 am
blogs wrote:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/median-house-price-down-11000/2008/03/29/1206207499082.html
Hmmmmmm and we still have a booming economy and 'proprty shortage'…..
The very same article was posted in Somersoft, and the general feeling was…. so what? 11k price drop in median price is rather small.
seank
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February 17, 2008 - 11:57 am
there are various things you can do
1. As you said give a real estate your number let them know you are serious and call before properties are listed
2. sign up for email alerts on realestate.com.au ect so new listings ae emailed to you daily
3. drive to all real estate agents ad leave your number with them.
If you see a property put an offer in subject to building and pest inspection, if there is problems you have a chance to re-negotiate or pull out of the deal, if you are employed most real estate agents can arrange after hour inspections.
Let me know how you go, as I'm looking in the same areas as you also.
Sean
seank
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February 17, 2008 - 9:25 am
hey mixedup,
300k may get an older style property 3 bed 1 bath in redbank/goodna , however to get a decent brick 3/2/1 you may need closer to 350k.
With a budget of 300k you will have a wider choice in Ipswich.
As posted earlier good buys are snapped up within days so you will be competing with other investors.
IMHO – any suburb in the Western corrider would be a good investment long term, as prices are still in there peak and most will be neagtive geared.
Just remember "time" in the market is better than "timing in the market"
seank
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February 17, 2008 - 8:20 am
BOOTLACE interesting coments I wonder if you are even from Brisbane?
Mixedup I own properties in Woodridge and Ipswich, and have not had a problem with my tennants in 5 years.
Also capital growth has been quite nice
According to the last API capital growth for last 12 months has been
Darra – 21.7%
Ipswich – 16%
Springfield – 11.3%
I would reconmend any of the areas you suggest, but with a budget of 300k may restrict you to Ipswich,
seank
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February 4, 2008 - 8:30 am
no offence, but it's your first post, and it seems like a sales pitch.
seank
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January 30, 2008 - 8:57 am
Growth may not alway be assured, but no matter where we are in "the market", there is always deals out there and money to be made. The biggest mistake, and regret I've ever made is procrastination!!
"Time in the market "is better then "timing in the market"
seank
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January 21, 2008 - 11:17 am
im confident about my investment properties in brisbane, also glad i got into property not shares at the moment, although i'm seriously thinking about buying shares now
There are still many bargains out there look at rocky capital growth of 30% last year and a median price still under 250k!!!
seank
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January 13, 2008 - 1:59 am
cattleya,
thanks for your comments,
wouldn't the same apply to the many many failed directors (rodney alder ect) of bankrupt companies who transfer their assests, goto jail, then after serving their sentence get chauffered back in limos into their 10million dollar mansions. doesn't seem fair??
seank
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@seank
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January 12, 2008 - 10:03 am
hi all,
I have a friend who is in a similar situation unmarried but with 1 child. He seems to think if he transfers his home into a company or trust, his asset is protected?? also he told me if it came down to it, he would trnasfer his home into his parents name and have the rent go into his account?? don't know if any of this is possible or will work???
regards
seank
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January 8, 2008 - 5:18 am
1 word – CHINA